Vehicle Destination Prediction Using Trip History Patterns
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing vehicle navigation systems require manual entry of destinations, which can be cumbersome and inefficient, especially for frequent travelers with predictable travel patterns.
Innovation Solution
A system utilizing a gradient boosted trees model trained on a vehicle operator's trip history to predict likely destinations based on input features such as origin location, time of day, and day of the week, with hyperparameter tuning for improved accuracy.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Ease of operation
If manual destination entry is used in navigation systems, then system simplicity is maintained, but operator convenience and efficiency deteriorate
Solution Approach 1:
The system automatically collects trip history data and performs destination predictions without requiring operator intervention. The gradient boosted trees model self-trains on accumulated trip data, automatically improving prediction accuracy over time while reducing the operator's input burden to simple location confirmation.
Solution Approach 2:
The system pre-collects trip history data during normal vehicle operation and pre-trains the prediction model before actual destination prediction is needed. This preliminary data collection and model training enables fast, accurate predictions when the operator needs navigation assistance.
2Productivity
If automatic destination prediction is implemented, then operator convenience is improved, but system complexity and data processing requirements worsen
Solution Approach 1:
The patent replaces manual destination input mechanisms with an automated machine learning-based prediction system. The gradient boosted trees model processes trip history data algorithmically, substituting the mechanical interaction of manual entry with intelligent automated prediction.
Solution Approach 2:
The system transforms raw trip history data into meaningful prediction parameters by extracting features such as origin-destination pairs, time patterns, and frequency metrics. The gradient boosted trees model processes these transformed parameters to generate accurate destination predictions.
3Measurement precision
If trip history data is collected and processed, then prediction accuracy is improved, but data processing time and computational resources worsen
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs model training and data processing in advance, accumulating trip history data during normal vehicle operation. The gradient boosted trees model is trained offline on collected data, so when prediction is needed, the system can quickly query pre-trained models without extensive real-time processing.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent segments the data processing into distinct phases: data collection during trips, offline model training on accumulated data, and rapid prediction querying. This segmentation allows computationally intensive operations to occur when not time-critical, improving real-time performance.
Data Source
AI summary
A method includes receiving a trip history for an operator of the vehicle with the trip history including trip information regarding previous trips by the operator of the vehicle. A data cluster corresponding to each destination in the trip history is generated by extracting input features from trip information for each trip. The input features characterize a relationship between the operator of the vehicle and the previous trips. A training dataset is generated based on collecting the data cluster corresponding to each of the destinations in the trip history. The training dataset is utilized to develop a gradient boosted trees model. At least one destination for the operator of the vehicle is predicted with the gradient boosted trees model utilizing at least one of an origin location of the operator of the vehicle, a time, or a day as input conditions for the gradient boosted trees model.

