Vehicle Model Correctness Quantification Using Pareto Error Tails

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Solution Overview

Problem

Current methods for quantifying the correctness of vehicle models are inefficient, requiring large amounts of data and being unsuitable for real-time applications, which is critical for autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles as they struggle to assess prediction errors and ensure safe maneuvers.

Innovation Solution

The method involves obtaining input parameters and control inputs to evaluate prediction errors, determining a threshold for errors that follow a Generalized Pareto Distribution, parameterizing this distribution, and using it to quantify model correctness, allowing for reduced data requirements and enabling both offline and online processing for improved vehicle operation and safety assessments.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Measurement precision

If traditional methods are used to quantify model correctness, then comprehensive analysis can be performed, but large amounts of data are required and real-time processing is not feasible

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvemodel correctness analysisVSAvoiddata amount
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSQuantity of substance

Solution Approach 1:

The patent extracts only the essential information needed for model correctness quantification by using Generalized Pareto Distribution to model prediction errors. Instead of analyzing all available data comprehensively, the method extracts key statistical parameters (shape parameter ξ, scale parameter σ, and location parameter μ) that capture the essential characteristics of prediction errors, thereby reducing data requirements while maintaining analysis quality.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #2Taking out (Extraction)

Solution Approach 2:

The patent transforms the model correctness assessment from a data-intensive process to a parameter-based process. By changing the approach from analyzing raw prediction error data to estimating GDP parameters (ξ, σ, μ) that characterize the error distribution, the method achieves comprehensive analysis with reduced data requirements and enables real-time processing.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #35Parameter changes

2Measurement precision

If traditional methods are used to quantify model correctness, then comprehensive analysis can be performed, but real-time processing is not feasible

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvemodel correctness analysisVSAvoidprocessing time
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSLoss of time

Solution Approach 1:

The patent transforms the model correctness assessment from a data-intensive process to a parameter-based process. By changing the approach from analyzing raw prediction error data to estimating GDP parameters (ξ, σ, μ) that characterize the error distribution, the method achieves comprehensive analysis with reduced data requirements and enables real-time processing.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #35Parameter changes

Solution Approach 2:

The patent replaces the mechanical computation of comprehensive data analysis with a statistical modeling approach. Instead of performing exhaustive calculations on all available data, the method uses Generalized Pareto Distribution to model prediction errors and estimates a small set of parameters, thereby reducing computational complexity and enabling real-time processing while maintaining analysis comprehensiveness.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #28Mechanics substitution (Replace mechanical system)

3Reliability

If more data is collected for model verification, then model correctness can be better assessed, but development and testing time increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvemodel verificationVSAvoiddevelopment and testing time
Core Design Contradiction:
ReliabilityVSLoss of time

Solution Approach 1:

The patent extracts only the essential information needed for model verification by using Generalized Pareto Distribution to model prediction errors. Instead of requiring extensive data collections, the method extracts key statistical parameters (shape parameter ξ, scale parameter σ, and location parameter μ) that capture the essential characteristics of prediction errors, thereby reducing data requirements while maintaining verification reliability.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #2Taking out (Extraction)

Solution Approach 2:

The patent transforms the model verification process from a data-intensive process to a parameter-based process. By changing the approach from analyzing raw prediction error data to estimating GDP parameters (ξ, σ, μ) that characterize the error distribution, the method achieves reliable verification with reduced data requirements and shortened development and testing time.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #35Parameter changes

Data Source

PatentEP3983861B1A method for quantifying correctness of a vehicle model
Publication Date: 2023.10.04 VOLVO AUTONOMOUS SOLUTIONS AB
  • EP3983861B1 patent drawingFigure 1~2
  • EP3983861B1 patent drawingFigure 3~4
  • EP3983861B1 patent drawingFigure 5~6

AI summary

A method for quantifying correctness of a vehicle model f(·). The method comprises obtaining prediction errors (A) by evaluating the model f(·) over a range of input parameters, determining a threshold ζ such that the prediction errors in excess of the threshold ζ, {εi : εi ≤ ζ}, follow a Generalized Pareto Distribution, GDP, and parameterizing a GDP based on the prediction errors in excess of the threshold ζ {εi : εi ≤ ζ}. The method then quantifies correctness of the vehicle model f(·) based on the parameterized GDP.