Vehicle Path Estimation Using Dynamic Territory Probability

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Solution Overview

Problem

Existing vehicle driving assistance systems struggle to accurately predict the most probable path of a vehicle on a road network, especially when faced with dynamic changes in road conditions and territory use, leading to suboptimal performance and reliability in controlling vehicle dynamics.

Innovation Solution

A system that dynamically assigns travel probabilities to road sections based on the designated use of the territory, incorporating real-time updates and specific events, such as shopping centers, tourist destinations, and traffic conditions, to refine path prediction and enhance driving assistance systems.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Ease of manufacture

If travel probabilities are assigned based on static road class definitions in cartographic reference maps, then the system is simple to implement, but the accuracy of path prediction deteriorates because static definitions cannot reflect real-time traffic conditions and dynamic changes in the road network

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveease of implementationVSAvoidpath prediction accuracy
Core Design Contradiction:
Ease of manufactureVSMeasurement precision

Solution Approach 1:

The patent applies the dynamics principle by transitioning from static road class definitions to dynamic travel probability assignments. The system continuously updates travel probabilities based on real-time traffic conditions, vehicle location data, and changing road network states. This allows the path prediction system to adapt to dynamic environmental changes while maintaining computational feasibility through probabilistic models.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #15Dynamics

Solution Approach 2:

The patent implements feedback by using actual traffic data and vehicle location information to continuously refine and update travel probability assignments. The system collects data on actual vehicle paths taken at intersections and uses this feedback to adjust future probability predictions, creating a closed-loop system that improves accuracy over time while building upon the simple static road class foundation.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #23Feedback

2Measurement precision

If travel probabilities are updated dynamically using traffic statistics and real-time data acquisition systems, then the path prediction accuracy is improved, but the system complexity increases due to the need for continuous data collection and processing

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvepath prediction accuracyVSAvoidsystem complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent applies universality by designing a modular architecture where the data acquisition system, processing unit, and probability update mechanisms can serve multiple functions. The same infrastructure supports various path prediction scenarios, different types of traffic data integration, and can be adapted to different road network configurations, reducing overall system complexity through shared components.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #6Universality (Multi-functionality)

Solution Approach 2:

The patent uses parameter changes by adjusting travel probability values based on different traffic conditions, time periods, and road characteristics. The system modifies probabilistic parameters dynamically without changing the fundamental system architecture, allowing accurate path prediction through parameter tuning rather than structural complexity.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #35Parameter changes

3Productivity

If the system considers multiple successive road sections and extended path prediction horizons, then the optimization of vehicle performance is enhanced, but the computational complexity increases due to the larger number of possible path combinations

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvevehicle performance optimizationVSAvoidcomputational complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
ProductivityVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent applies dynamics by implementing adaptive path prediction that adjusts the prediction horizon and number of successive road sections considered based on current driving conditions, vehicle type, and intersection characteristics. The system dynamically extends or reduces the analysis depth to balance computational load with optimization needs, enabling extended path consideration without excessive complexity.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #15Dynamics

Solution Approach 2:

The patent uses local quality by applying different levels of computational effort to different road sections and path segments. The system focuses detailed probabilistic analysis on critical decision points and intersections while using simplified models for less critical sections, allowing comprehensive multi-section path optimization with localized computational intensity where most beneficial.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #3Local quality

Data Source

PatentEP2610838B1System and method for estimating the most probable path of a vehicle travelling on a road
Publication Date: 2018.02.07 FAB ITAL MAGNETI MARELLI SPA
  • EP2610838B1 patent drawingFigure 1
  • EP2610838B1 patent drawingFigure 2
  • EP2610838B1 patent drawingFigure 3a~3c

AI summary

A system and a method are described for estimating the most probable path followed by a vehicle (V) on a road network including road sections (R, R'), originating from respective intersection or branching nodes (N; D), to which a travel probability is assigned, comprising: - a device (G) for acquiring a data element for locating the vehicle (V) on the road network; - a map (DB1, DB2) of the territory through which the road network passes, comprising data indicative of the corresponding designated use of a plurality of areas of territory (C; T) associated with the sections (R, R') of the road network; and - a processing unit (P) arranged to assign an improved travel probability to a road section (R; R'), originating from a road intersection or branching node (N; D), as a function of the designated use of the area of territory (C; T) associated with the aforesaid road section (R; R'), and to calculate the most probable path for the vehicle according to the improved probabilities assigned to the consecutive road sections, comprising a plurality of consecutive road sections originating in the intersection or branching node (N; D) approached by the vehicle (V) for which the joint travel probability is highest.