Predictive Model for Video Access Requests Using Adjustment Factors
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Solution Overview
Problem
Predicting future access requests for videos posted via a set of channels is challenging due to variations in access requests even among videos from the same channel, making it difficult to accurately allocate resources.
Innovation Solution
A method and system that use a predictive model based on historical data from a reference channel lineup to predict future access requests for videos posted via a prospective channel lineup, incorporating adjustment factors derived from simulations to improve prediction accuracy.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Productivity
If a predictive model is used to forecast future access requests, then resource allocation can be optimized, but prediction accuracy deteriorates due to high variability in access patterns across different videos and channels
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs multiple simulations in advance to determine adjustment factors before making final predictions. By pre-calculating simulation results and deriving adjustment factors from historical data, the system prepares predictive corrections ahead of time, improving both resource allocation efficiency and prediction accuracy
Solution Approach 2:
The system uses actual access request data from historical videos as feedback to refine predictions. Adjustment factors are calculated by comparing predicted versus actual access requests, and this feedback loop continuously improves prediction accuracy while maintaining efficient resource allocation
2Reliability
If multiple simulations are performed to improve prediction accuracy, then prediction reliability is improved, but computational complexity increases
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs a predetermined number of simulations that is sufficient to achieve reliable predictions without being excessive. By selecting an optimal simulation count that provides adequate reliability while avoiding unnecessary computational overhead, the system balances prediction reliability with manageable computational complexity
Solution Approach 2:
Simulations are performed in advance to establish adjustment factors before actual prediction is needed. This preliminary computational work allows the system to achieve high prediction reliability through multiple simulations while managing computational complexity by completing the intensive work beforehand rather than in real-time
Data Source
AI summary
A system and method are disclosed for identifying a plurality of past videos posted via a first group of channels, determining, for each channel of a second group, an average number of access requests that a future video to be posted via a respective channel is predicted to receive within a first time interval after posting, determining, for each channel of the second group, a plurality of adjusted average numbers of access requests that the future video to be posted via the respective channel of the second group is predicted to receive within the first time interval, wherein each of the plurality of adjusted average numbers of access requests is determined using an adjustment factor reflecting a number of access requests received by a past video posted via a respective channel of the first group, and determining whether the second group of channels satisfies a predetermined access criterion.