Computational Viral Strain Transition Prediction Network

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Solution Overview

Problem

Current methods for predicting emergent influenza strains and identifying pandemic potential are limited, relying on subjective expert scoring and time-consuming experimental assays, which hinders scalability and accuracy.

Innovation Solution

A computational method using pattern recognition algorithms to analyze genomic sequences of viral proteins, forming a network of predictors to estimate the probability of viral strain transition and predict dominant strains and pandemic risk.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Measurement precision

If subjective expert scoring and experimental assays are used to predict emergent influenza strains, then accuracy of pandemic potential assessment is improved, but time consumption and scalability deteriorate

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveaccuracy of pandemic potential assessmentVSAvoidtime consumption
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSLoss of time

Solution Approach 1:

The patent creates a computational copy of the expert assessment process through machine learning models trained on historical genomic data and expert scores. The model reproduces expert judgment patterns without requiring actual expert involvement, enabling rapid prediction while maintaining assessment accuracy.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #26Copying

Solution Approach 2:

The patent replaces the mechanical system of manual expert scoring and laboratory-based experimental assays with an automated computational system. The machine learning model processes genomic sequences algorithmically, substituting human expert analysis and physical experimentation with computational prediction.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #28Mechanics substitution (Replace mechanical system)

2Measurement precision

If subjective expert scoring and experimental assays are used to predict emergent influenza strains, then accuracy of pandemic potential assessment is improved, but scalability deteriorates

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveaccuracy of pandemic potential assessmentVSAvoidscalability
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSProductivity

Solution Approach 1:

The computational model serves as a scalable copy of the expert assessment process, capable of evaluating multiple strains simultaneously without additional resource requirements. Once trained, the model can assess unlimited numbers of genomic sequences at constant marginal cost.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #26Copying

Solution Approach 2:

The patent replaces resource-intensive manual expert review and laboratory experimentation with automated computational analysis. This substitution enables the system to scale from assessing a few strains to evaluating global surveillance data from thousands of sources without proportional increases in time or resources.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #28Mechanics substitution (Replace mechanical system)

3Productivity

If computational methods are used to predict viral strain transitions, then scalability and speed are improved, but measurement precision may deteriorate

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveprediction speedVSAvoidaccuracy of strain transition prediction
Core Design Contradiction:
ProductivityVSMeasurement precision

Solution Approach 1:

The patent performs preliminary action by training the machine learning model on extensive historical genomic data and expert assessments before deployment. This pre-training phase captures evolutionary patterns and expert judgment criteria, enabling the model to make accurate predictions without requiring additional data collection or expert involvement during actual prediction operations.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #10Preliminary action

Solution Approach 2:

The model incorporates feedback mechanisms by training on historical expert scores and validation datasets, continuously refining its predictions to match observed outcomes. The system learns from past prediction accuracy and adjusts its computational approach to improve measurement precision while maintaining high-speed processing.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #23Feedback

Data Source

PatentUS20250157674A1Rapid scalable risk assesment for emerging viral strains
Publication Date: 2025.05.15 UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO
  • US20250157674A1 patent drawing
  • US20250157674A1 patent drawing
  • US20250157674A1 patent drawing

AI summary

Systems and methods are disclosed for predicting the rise of different strains of viruses. A method comprises reading a genetic sequence of a first strain of a virus; identifying a plurality of residue indices in the genetic sequence; for each of the plurality of indices, assigning a predictor, the predictor configured to predict a residue for its assigned index based upon a residue of at least one other index, the predictors thereby forming a network; and determining, based on the network of predictors, a probability of transition of the first strain to a second strain.