Web Page Conversion Prediction Using Information Gain
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing methods fail to effectively identify and prioritize web pages that are likely to lead to conversions, such as purchases or downloads, limiting digital marketers' ability to optimize user navigation and increase conversion rates.
Innovation Solution
A system and method using information theory and Information Gain calculations on web log data to determine 'forks in the road' – critical pages where users decide to navigate to pages with higher conversion probabilities, enabling daily reports and interactive viewing of browsing trails to guide users to conversion-oriented pages.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If digital marketers analyze all web pages equally, then they can maintain comprehensive coverage of the website, but they cannot effectively identify and prioritize pages that lead to conversions
Solution Approach 1:
The patent replaces traditional mechanical analysis methods with information theory-based calculations. Instead of manually analyzing page importance through complex manual processes, the system uses automated Information Gain calculations to objectively measure which pages lead to conversions, substituting human analysis with mathematical computation that is both precise and scalable
Solution Approach 2:
The patent introduces new parameters for measuring page importance based on Information Gain and conversion probability. By changing from traditional page rank metrics to conversion-oriented metrics, the system can precisely identify which pages actually lead to conversions, transforming the measurement approach from generic traffic analysis to conversion-focused analysis
2Productivity
If marketers focus attention on all navigation decision points, then they can potentially catch all conversion opportunities, but they waste resources on pages that do not lead to conversions
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies Local Quality by treating different web pages with different levels of marketing attention based on their measured conversion potential. High Information Gain pages receive focused marketing resources and optimization efforts, while low-value pages receive minimal attention, creating a non-uniform distribution of marketing energy that matches the actual conversion landscape
Solution Approach 2:
The patent implements Partial Action by concentrating marketing efforts on only those pages that demonstrate proven conversion value through Information Gain analysis. Rather than applying marketing resources uniformly across all pages (excessive action), the system applies resources partially and selectively to high-value pages, achieving better ROI with fewer resources
3Measurement precision
If the system processes large volumes of web log data to identify conversion patterns, then it can improve prediction accuracy, but it increases computational complexity and processing time
Solution Approach 1:
The patent extracts only the essential features from web log data that are relevant to conversion prediction, rather than processing all available data. By focusing on extraction of key navigation patterns and conversion events, the system reduces computational complexity while maintaining prediction accuracy, taking out only the necessary information from the overwhelming data set
Data Source
AI summary
A method and system for extracting from a web log for a given entity information comprising web page events. The information gain in the sequence of navigating from a given web page to a subsequent web page is computed for at least some of the web page events. The information gain is used to determine a set of web pages from which users can decide to navigate to a first web page or a second web page, wherein navigating to the first web page is more likely to lead to a conversion than navigating to the second web page. A list of at least a subset of the set of web pages is transmitted to the entity, which can use the list to determine web pages at which the entity can place advertising material to motivate a user to navigate to the first web page. The computing may be performed by MapReduce processing.