Well Parameter Estimation via Historic Matching for Drilling Forecasts
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current methods for generating drilling schedules and budget forecasts for oil and gas fields are time-consuming and inefficient, with a disconnect between simulation outputs and economic evaluations, leading to inaccurate near-term, mid-term, and long-term forecasts.
Innovation Solution
A system that automates the process of matching well attributes of prospective wells with historic wells to calculate drilling time and cost estimates, using machine-learning algorithms and Markov Chain models to generate drilling schedules and budget forecasts, while accounting for operational and logistical restrictions.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If manual methods are used to generate drilling schedules by matching well attributes with historic wells, then accuracy of well parameter estimation is improved, but time consumption and labor costs increase significantly
Solution Approach 1:
The patent replaces manual mechanical matching processes with automated computerized systems that use machine learning algorithms and data processing to match well attributes with historic wells, dramatically reducing time consumption while maintaining or improving accuracy
Solution Approach 2:
The system creates digital copies of historic well data and attributes, allowing automated comparison and matching against prospective wells without requiring manual review of each historic well record
2Reliability
If detailed manual analysis of well and rig parameters is performed to optimally match rigs to wells, then quality of drilling schedule is improved, but labor costs and complexity increase
Solution Approach 1:
The patent replaces complex manual analysis processes with automated computerized algorithms that systematically evaluate well and rig parameters, reducing process complexity while maintaining or improving schedule quality
Solution Approach 2:
The system transforms qualitative matching criteria into quantifiable parameters that can be automatically processed by computers, changing the nature of the matching process from subjective manual evaluation to objective automated calculation
3Productivity
If computerized simulations are run to develop oil or gas field plans, then productivity of field development is improved, but disconnect between simulation outputs and economic evaluation persists
Solution Approach 1:
The patent merges simulation outputs with economic evaluation processes by integrating well parameter estimation from historic data directly into the economic modeling framework, eliminating the disconnect between technical simulations and economic analysis
Data Source
AI summary
Systems and methods of estimating well parameters are disclosed. In one embodiment, a method of estimating well parameters includes receiving a plurality of wells, each well defined by a plurality of well attributes, receiving a plurality of historic wells, each historic well of the plurality of historic wells defined by a plurality of historic well attributes, and comparing the plurality of well attributes of the plurality of wells with the plurality of historic well attributes of the plurality of historic wells. The method further includes selecting one or more matched historic wells based at least in part on a similarity between the plurality of well attributes for an individual well with the plurality of historic well attributes of the one or more matched historic wells, and calculating one or more well parameters based at least in part on the one or more matched historic wells.