Well Test Value Quantification Using Simulated Annealing
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current oilfield operations face challenges in assessing the value of information and reducing uncertainty in reservoir and measurement interpretations, leading to sub-optimal development decisions due to cumbersome decision tree constructs and discretized uncertainties.
Innovation Solution
A method and system for quantifying the value-of-information (VoI) of a proposed well test by generating a decision tree with uncertainty nodes linked to probability density functions, evaluating figure of merit, and optimizing well test duration based on accuracy, cost, and VoI, using reservoir, wellbore, and surface network simulators.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Reliability
If traditional decision tree constructs are used to assess well test value, then comprehensive uncertainty analysis is achieved, but computational complexity and difficulty of implementation increase significantly
Solution Approach 1:
The patent extracts the core uncertainty analysis functionality from the complex traditional decision tree and implements it through a streamlined computational approach using simulated annealing optimization. This separates the essential uncertainty quantification from the cumbersome decision tree construct, maintaining reliability while reducing complexity.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent transforms the decision-making framework by changing parameters from discrete decision tree nodes to continuous probability distributions and optimization algorithms. This allows comprehensive uncertainty analysis through parameter sampling and optimization rather than exhaustive decision tree enumeration.
2Measurement precision
If well test duration is extended to improve measurement accuracy, then information quality increases, but test costs and time consumption increase
Solution Approach 1:
The patent implements feedback through the simulated annealing optimization process, which iteratively adjusts well test duration based on the marginal value of information. The system continuously evaluates whether extended testing provides sufficient additional information to justify the increased time and cost, stopping when diminishing returns are detected.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent applies partial action by determining the optimal well test duration that provides sufficient information without excessive testing. Rather than extending tests to maximum possible duration, the system identifies the point where additional testing yields diminishing returns and stops there, achieving adequate precision without unnecessary time loss.
3Reliability
If multiple uncertainties are accounted for in well test valuation, then decision quality improves, but computational requirements and analysis time increase
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies preliminary action by pre-defining probability distributions for multiple uncertainties and using simulated annealing to pre-compute optimal test durations. This preparation work is done before actual well test decisions, allowing rapid evaluation of multiple uncertainties when needed without excessive computation time during critical decision moments.
Data Source
AI summary
The present invention relates to a method and system for quantifying the value-of-information (VoI) of a proposed and future well test where multiple uncertainties associated with the reservoir properties and/or measurement and/or interpretation may be present.