Day-Ahead Wind Power Prediction Using Clustering and GANs
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current wind power prediction methods based on physical approaches are inaccurate due to their complexity and cumbersome calculation processes, failing to effectively utilize multi-source, multi-dimensional, and multi-modal data to identify inherent patterns and relationships between historical data.
Innovation Solution
A method and system that construct a raw data set using numerical weather forecast meteorological features and historical daily wind power, applying k-means clustering and robust auxiliary classifier generative adversarial networks to generate labelled scenes, determine cluster labels, and screen for similar scenes to produce point and interval predictions for day-ahead wind power.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If wind power prediction based on physical methods is used, then the prediction model can be established with meteorological factors, but the prediction accuracy is insufficient and the calculation process is cumbersome
Solution Approach 1:
The patent replaces the traditional physical-mechanism-based prediction system with a data-driven machine learning system. Specifically, it uses Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks and attention mechanisms to process meteorological data and historical wind power data, substituting complex physical calculations with automated pattern recognition algorithms that achieve higher accuracy without manual intervention in feature engineering.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent transforms the prediction approach by changing from fixed physical parameter relationships to dynamic parameter learning. The system learns optimal parameter combinations and relationships from historical data, allowing the model to adapt to changing conditions. The attention mechanism dynamically weights different input parameters based on their relevance to current prediction needs, rather than using fixed physical formulas.
2Productivity
If traditional physical methods are used for wind power prediction, then the model structure can be established, but the calculation process is cumbersome and complex
Solution Approach 1:
The patent implements preliminary action by pre-processing meteorological data and historical wind power data into standardized formats before model training. The system pre-features engineering is automatically performed during the training phase, where the LSTM network learns optimal feature representations from raw data. This eliminates the need for complex manual feature engineering during actual prediction operations, significantly improving efficiency.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent enables the prediction system to serve itself through automated model training and optimization. The system automatically adjusts hyperparameters, selects optimal model architectures, and refines predictions based on feedback from historical data without requiring complex manual intervention. The attention mechanism automatically identifies and weights important features, making the system self-optimizing rather than requiring continuous manual tuning.
Data Source
AI summary
A method for predicting a day-ahead wind power of wind farms, comprising: constructing a raw data set based on a correlation between the to-be-predicted daily wind power, the numerical weather forecast meteorological feature and a historical daily wind power; obtaining a clustered data set and performing k-means clustering, obtaining a raw data set with cluster labels, and generating massive labeled scenes based on robust auxiliary classifier generative adversarial networks; determining the cluster label category of the to-be-predicted day based on the known historical daily wind power and numerical weather forecast meteorological feature, and screening out multiple scenes with high similarity to the to-be-predicted daily wind power based on the cluster label category; and obtaining the prediction results of the to-be-predicted daily wind power at a plurality of set times based on an average value, an upper limit value and a lower limit value of the to-be-predicted daily wind power.


