Methods and equipment for risk assessment of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gatherings

Abstract

The present invention provides a method and device for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities, including: determining pre-adopted indicators and obtaining reference information, analyzing the scoring results of the obtained reference information; calculating the Kendall coordination coefficient according to the scoring results, determining the consistency of the reference information, determining the weight coefficient of each indicator, and calculating the combined weight coefficient of the second indicator according to the first indicator by the product method; calculating the weighted score of the scores of each indicator, obtaining the percentage value of the total weighted score of the indicators that affect the possibility of risk occurrence and the severity of risk consequences to the maximum score, and then obtaining the assessment results, and using the risk matrix to determine the risk level of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities according to the assessment results. The present invention can meet the needs of mosquito-borne disease risk assessment in large-scale group gathering activities, and provide data support and basis for the formulation of public health safety prevention and control strategies and measures for large-scale group gathering activities in cities.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The embodiments of the present invention relate to the technical field of mosquito-borne disease assessment, and in particular to a method and device for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities. Background Art

[0002] The risk assessment index system for infectious diseases in large-scale events such as international large-scale sports events or international large-scale conferences was established early, but the relevant technical means did not classify and evaluate infectious diseases, and the selection of indicators tended to be macro and general. Research on the risk index system for mosquito-borne infectious diseases is more common in port health quarantine, but there is still no relevant research on the risk assessment index system for mosquito-borne infectious diseases in large-scale group gatherings. Therefore, the development of a method and equipment for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gatherings can effectively overcome the defects in the above-mentioned related technologies, which has become a technical problem that needs to be solved urgently in the industry. Summary of the invention

[0003] In view of the above problems existing in the prior art, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method and device for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities.

[0004] In the first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities, including: dividing each indicator into several levels, and assigning an information table to each level, using the information table to evaluate the initial screening indicators, determining the pre-adopted indicators and obtaining reference information, and analyzing the obtained reference information scoring results; calculating the Kendall coordination coefficient based on the scoring results, determining the consistency of the reference information, determining the weight coefficient of each indicator, and calculating the combined weight coefficient of the second indicator using the product method based on the first indicator; calculating a weighted score for the score of each indicator to obtain the percentage value of the total weighted score of the indicators that affect the possibility of risk occurrence and the severity of risk consequences to the maximum score; evaluating the possibility of risk occurrence and the severity of risk consequences of mosquito-borne disease transmission based on the percentage value to obtain an evaluation result, and using a risk matrix to determine the risk level of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities based on the evaluation result.

[0005] Based on the contents of the above method embodiments, the method for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities provided in the embodiments of the present invention uses an information table to evaluate the initial screening indicators, determine the pre-adopted indicators and obtain reference information, analyze the scoring results of the reference information obtained, calculate the Kendall coordination coefficient based on the scoring results, and determine the consistency of the reference information, including: in the first round of information acquisition, the rationality and importance of the initial screening indicators are evaluated by scoring, and at the same time, whether new indicators are included and unreasonable indicators are deleted to obtain the first indicator; after the first round of information acquisition is completed, the risk system is modified and adjusted, and the information obtained in the first round of information is comprehensively summarized to form a comprehensive opinion, and a second round of information acquisition is carried out according to the comprehensive opinion, and the adjusted indicators are scored again according to their importance to obtain a second indicator.

[0006] Based on the content of the above method embodiment, the method for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities provided in the embodiment of the present invention, wherein the weight coefficient of each indicator is determined, comprises:

[0007]

[0008] Among them, Wj is the weight coefficient of indicator j, i is the number of evaluation levels, Ri is the score ranked in the i-th level, Ni is the frequency of an indicator in the i-th level, N is the number of experts who have put forward opinions on the indicator, and n is the number of levels.

[0009] Based on the content of the above method embodiment, the method for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities provided in the embodiment of the present invention, wherein the total weighted score of the indicators affecting the possibility of risk occurrence and the severity of risk consequences is calculated as a percentage of the maximum score, includes:

[0010]

[0011] Among them, Gj is the score of indicator j, P is the percentage value, and m is the number of indicators.

[0012] Based on the contents of the above method embodiments, in the method for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities provided in the embodiments of the present invention, the second indicator calculates the combined weight coefficient according to the first indicator using the product method, including: the combined weight coefficient of the second indicator = the second indicator weight coefficient × the corresponding first indicator weight coefficient.

[0013] Based on the contents of the above method embodiments, the method for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities provided in the embodiments of the present invention, wherein the possibility of the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission and the severity of the risk consequences are assessed according to the percentage value to obtain an assessment result, including: dividing the possibility of the risk occurrence into 5 levels, and defining each level separately; dividing the severity of the risk consequences into 5 levels, and using the percentage of the total weighted score of the indicator to the maximum score as the judgment standard for the possibility of the risk occurrence and the severity of the risk consequences, and dividing the judgment standard into 5 levels from high to low.

[0014] Based on the contents of the above method embodiments, the method for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities provided in the embodiments of the present invention, after determining the risk level of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities using the risk matrix according to the assessment results, also includes: constructing an index system for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities according to the risk level of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities.

[0015] In the second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a device for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities, including: a first main module, used to divide each indicator into several levels, and assign an information table to each level, use the information table to evaluate the initial screening indicators, determine the pre-adopted indicators and obtain reference information, and analyze the obtained reference information scoring results; a second main module, used to calculate the Kendall coordination coefficient based on the scoring results, determine the consistency of the reference information, determine the weight coefficient of each indicator, and the second indicator uses the product method to calculate the combined weight coefficient based on the first indicator; a third main module, used to calculate a weighted score for the score of each indicator, and obtain the percentage value of the total weighted score of the indicators that affect the possibility of risk occurrence and the severity of risk consequences to the maximum score; a fourth main module, used to evaluate the possibility of risk occurrence and the severity of risk consequences of mosquito-borne disease transmission according to the percentage value, obtain an evaluation result, and use a risk matrix to determine the risk level of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities according to the evaluation result.

[0016] In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device, including:

[0017] at least one processor; and

[0018] at least one memory in communication with the processor, wherein:

[0019] The memory stores program instructions that can be executed by the processor, and the processor calls the program instructions to execute the method for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities provided by any one of the various implementation methods of the first aspect.

[0020] In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium, which stores computer instructions, and the computer instructions enable a computer to execute a method for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities provided by any one of the various implementation methods of the first aspect.

[0021] The method and device for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities provided in an embodiment of the present invention determine the pre-adopted indicators and obtain reference information, analyze the scoring results of the obtained reference information and calculate the Kendall coordination coefficient, determine the weight coefficient of each indicator and the combined weight coefficient; calculate the weighted score for the score of each indicator, and obtain the percentage of the total weighted score of the indicators that affect the possibility of risk occurrence and the severity of risk consequences to the maximum score, and determine the risk level of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities based on this, which can meet the needs of mosquito-borne disease risk assessment in large-scale group gathering activities and provide data support and basis for the formulation of public health safety prevention and control strategies and measures for large-scale group gathering activities in cities. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0022] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, a brief introduction is given below to the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying any creative work.

[0023] Figure 1 A flow chart of a method for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0024] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of the structure of a device for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0025] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the physical structure of an electronic device provided by an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0026] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention. In addition, the technical features in the various embodiments or single embodiments provided by the present invention can be arbitrarily combined with each other to form a feasible technical solution. This combination is not subject to the constraints of the sequence of steps and / or the structural composition mode, but must be based on the ability of ordinary technicians in this field to achieve. When the combination of technical solutions is contradictory or cannot be achieved, it should be considered that such a combination of technical solutions does not exist and is not within the scope of protection required by the present invention.

[0027] The present invention provides a method for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities. Figure 1 The method includes: dividing each indicator into several levels, assigning an information table to each level, using the information table to evaluate the initial screening indicators, determining the pre-adopted indicators and obtaining reference information, and analyzing the scoring results of the obtained reference information; calculating the Kendall coordination coefficient according to the scoring results, determining the consistency of the reference information, determining the weight coefficient of each indicator, and calculating the combined weight coefficient of the second indicator according to the first indicator using the product method; calculating the weighted score of the score of each indicator to obtain the percentage value of the total weighted score of the indicators that affect the possibility of risk occurrence and the severity of risk consequences to the maximum score; evaluating the possibility of mosquito-borne disease transmission risk and the severity of risk consequences according to the percentage value to obtain an evaluation result, and using the risk matrix to determine the risk level of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities according to the evaluation result.

[0028] Specifically, according to the national standard "Criteria and Guidelines for the Application of Vector-borne Disease Hazard Risk Assessment for Large-scale Events" and the experience of public health prevention and control, the indicators that affect the possibility of mosquito-borne disease transmission risk and the severity of risk consequences of large-scale events were initially selected. Each indicator was divided into 5 levels in a dimensionless manner, with values ​​of 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 respectively, and scored with reference to expert opinions to form an information table. The information table has an expert opinion column and a blank column, which mainly collects the qualitative opinions of experts on the addition, modification, and deletion of indicators.

[0029] Based on the content of the above method embodiment, as an optional embodiment, the method for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities provided in the embodiment of the present invention, wherein the information table is used to evaluate the initial screening indicators, determine the pre-adopted indicators and obtain reference information, analyze the scoring results of the reference information obtained, calculate the Kendall coordination coefficient based on the scoring results, and determine the consistency of the reference information, including: in the first round of information acquisition, the rationality and importance of the initial screening indicators are evaluated by scoring, and at the same time, whether new indicators are included and unreasonable indicators are deleted, so as to obtain the first indicator; after the first round of information acquisition is completed, the risk system is modified and adjusted, and the information obtained in the first round of information acquisition is comprehensively summarized to form a comprehensive opinion, and a second round of information acquisition is carried out according to the comprehensive opinion, and the adjusted indicators are scored again according to their importance to obtain a second indicator.

[0030] Specifically, refer to the expert opinions to evaluate the rationality and importance of the initial screening indicators, so as to determine the indicators that will be finally included in the system. A total of two rounds of evaluation were carried out. The first round of evaluation mainly referred to the expert opinions and evaluated the rationality and importance of the initial screening indicators by scoring, and analyzed whether there were new indicators included and unreasonable indicators deleted. After the first round of evaluation, the risk system was modified and adjusted according to the expert opinions, and the opinions of the first round of experts were summarized and fed back to the experts to form a comprehensive opinion. The second round of evaluation was mainly to refer to the opinions of the experts to score the adjusted indicators again according to their importance. SPSS 20.0 was used to analyze the results of the second round of consultation scores to calculate the Kendall coefficient of concordance W value to judge the consistency of expert opinions.

[0031] Based on the content of the above method embodiment, as an optional embodiment, the method for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities provided in the embodiment of the present invention, wherein the weight coefficient of each indicator is determined, comprises:

[0032]

[0033] Among them, Wj is the weight coefficient of indicator j, i is the number of evaluation levels, Ri is the score ranked in the i-th level, Ni is the frequency of an indicator in the i-th level, N is the number of experts who have put forward opinions on the indicator, and n is the number of levels.

[0034] Specifically, after the consistency test is passed, the percentage weight method is applied to determine the weight coefficient of each indicator. The percentage weight method is used to calculate the weight coefficient as shown in formula (1). The secondary indicator uses the product method to calculate the combined weight coefficient based on the primary indicator.

[0035] Based on the content of the above method embodiment, as an optional embodiment, the method for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities provided in the embodiment of the present invention, wherein the total weighted score of the indicators affecting the possibility of risk occurrence and the severity of risk consequences is calculated as a percentage of the maximum score, includes:

[0036]

[0037] Among them, Gj is the score of indicator j, P is the percentage value, and m is the number of indicators.

[0038] Specifically, risk assessment includes evaluating each risk indicator that affects the likelihood of risk occurrence and the severity of risk consequences. The weighted score is calculated based on the expert's scores on each indicator, and then the percentage of the total weighted score of the indicators that affect the likelihood of risk occurrence and the severity of risk consequences is calculated as shown in formula (2).

[0039] Based on the content of the above method embodiment, as an optional embodiment, in the method for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities provided in the embodiment of the present invention, the second indicator calculates the combined weight coefficient according to the first indicator using the product method, including: the combined weight coefficient of the second indicator = the second indicator weight coefficient × the corresponding weight coefficient of the first indicator.

[0040] Based on the content of the above method embodiment, as an optional embodiment, the method for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities provided in the embodiment of the present invention, the possibility of mosquito-borne disease transmission risk and the severity of risk consequences are assessed according to the percentage value to obtain an assessment result, including: dividing the possibility of risk occurrence into 5 levels, and defining each level separately; dividing the severity of risk consequences into 5 levels, and using the percentage of the total weighted score of the indicator to the maximum score as the percentage of the risk occurrence possibility and the severity of the risk consequences, and dividing the judgment criteria into 5 levels from high to low.

[0041] Specifically, according to the "Guidelines and Guidelines for the Application of Vector-borne Disease Hazard Risk Assessment for Large-scale Activities", the possibility of risk occurrence is divided into 5 levels, from high to low, namely "A, B, C, D, E", and each level is defined as "almost certain", "very likely", "possible", "unlikely" and "rare" respectively; the severity of risk consequences is divided into 5 levels, from high to low, namely "level 5, level 4, level 3, level 2, level 1", and each level is defined as "catastrophic", "large", "medium", "small" and "negligible". When evaluating, the total weighted score of the indicator accounts for the percentage of the maximum score (H), which is "80%-100%", "60%-80%", "40%-60%", "20%-40%" and "0%-20%" respectively as the criteria for determining the possibility of risk occurrence and the severity of risk consequences from high to low. The risk matrix method is used to determine the overall risk level. After the risk level of the possibility of risk occurrence and the severity of risk consequences are determined, the risk level of mosquito-borne infectious diseases at large-scale events is determined based on the risk assessment matrix index table (see Table 1).

[0042] Table 1

[0043]

[0044] Based on the content of the above method embodiment, as an optional embodiment, the method for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities provided in the embodiment of the present invention, after determining the risk level of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities using the risk matrix according to the assessment results, also includes: constructing a mosquito-borne disease transmission risk assessment index system in group gathering activities according to the risk level of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities.

[0045] Specifically, based on the results of the reference expert opinions, 4 first-level indicators and 32 second-level indicators of risk possibility were determined. The specific evaluation indicators and the weight, assignment and indicator grade judgment criteria of each indicator are detailed in Table 2.

[0046] Table 2

[0047]

[0048]

[0049] Based on the results of the reference expert opinions, 10 evaluation indicators for the severity of risk results were determined. The specific evaluation indicators and the weight, value assignment and indicator level judgment criteria of each indicator are detailed in Table 3.

[0050] Table 3

[0051]

[0052] The method for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities provided by an embodiment of the present invention determines pre-adopted indicators and obtains reference information, analyzes the scoring results of the obtained reference information and calculates the Kendall coordination coefficient, determines the weight coefficient of each indicator and the combined weight coefficient; calculates a weighted score for the score of each indicator, obtains the percentage of the total weighted score of the indicators that affect the possibility of risk occurrence and the severity of risk consequences to the maximum score, and determines the risk level of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities based on this, which can meet the needs of mosquito-borne disease risk assessment in large-scale group gathering activities, and provide data support and basis for the formulation of public health safety prevention and control strategies and measures for large-scale group gathering activities in cities.

[0053] In practical application, based on the relevant data of dengue fever monitoring in recent years in the world, China and major cities, dengue fever vector Aedes mosquito monitoring and drug resistance monitoring, as well as relevant information such as population mobility and health prevention and control during the sports games in a certain place, the evaluation index system is used to evaluate the transmission risk of dengue fever during the sports games in a certain place. The 32 secondary indicators of the possibility of risk occurrence and the 10 indicators of the severity of risk consequences are scored respectively. According to the scoring results, the total weighted score of the indicator for calculating the possibility of risk occurrence accounts for 45.79% of the maximum score. According to the judgment criteria, the probability of risk occurrence is judged as C level, that is, "possible" occurrence; the total weighted score of the indicator for calculating the severity of risk outcomes accounts for 44.85% of the maximum score. According to the judgment criteria, the severity of risk outcomes is judged as level 3, that is, "medium" severity. According to the comprehensive analysis in Table 1, the risk level of dengue fever in a certain sports event is assessed as H, which belongs to high risk.

[0054] The implementation basis of each embodiment of the present invention is to implement programmed processing through a device with a processor function. Therefore, in engineering practice, the technical solutions and functions of each embodiment of the present invention can be encapsulated into various modules. Based on this reality, on the basis of the above embodiments, an embodiment of the present invention provides a device for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities, which is used to execute the method for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities in the above method embodiment. Figure 2The device includes: a first main module, which is used to divide each indicator into several levels, assign values ​​to each level to obtain an information table, use the information table to evaluate the initial screening indicators, determine the pre-adopted indicators and obtain reference information, and analyze the scoring results of the obtained reference information; a second main module, which is used to calculate the Kendall coordination coefficient according to the scoring results, determine the consistency of the reference information, and determine the weight coefficient of each indicator. The second indicator uses the product method to calculate the combined weight coefficient according to the first indicator; a third main module, which is used to calculate the weighted score of the scores of each indicator, and obtain the percentage value of the total weighted score of the indicators that affect the possibility of risk occurrence and the severity of risk consequences to the maximum score; a fourth main module, which is used to evaluate the possibility of mosquito-borne disease transmission risk and the severity of risk consequences according to the percentage value, obtain the evaluation result, and use the risk matrix to determine the risk level of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities according to the evaluation result.

[0055] The device for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities provided by the embodiment of the present invention adopts Figure 2 Several modules in it, by determining the pre-adopted indicators and obtaining reference information, analyzing the scoring results of the obtained reference information and calculating the Kendall coordination coefficient, determine the weight coefficient of each indicator and the combined weight coefficient; calculate the weighted score of the score of each indicator, and obtain the percentage of the total weighted score of the indicators that affect the possibility of risk occurrence and the severity of risk consequences to the maximum score, and determine the risk level of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gatherings based on this, which can meet the needs of mosquito-borne disease risk assessment in large-scale group gatherings, and provide data support and basis for the formulation of public health safety prevention and control strategies and measures for large-scale group gatherings in cities.

[0056] It should be noted that the device in the device embodiment provided by the present invention can be used to implement the method in the above method embodiment as well as the method in other method embodiments provided by the present invention. The only difference is that the corresponding functional modules are set, and the principle is basically the same as the principle of the above device embodiment provided by the present invention. As long as the technical personnel in the field refer to the specific technical solutions in other method embodiments on the basis of the above device embodiment, obtain the corresponding technical means and the technical solutions composed of these technical means by combining technical features, the device in the above device embodiment can be improved on the premise of ensuring the practicality of the technical solution, thereby obtaining the corresponding device class embodiment, which is used to implement the methods in other method class embodiments. For example:

[0057] Based on the contents of the above-mentioned device embodiments, as an optional embodiment, the device for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities provided in the embodiments of the present invention further includes: a first submodule, which is used to implement the evaluation of the initial screening indicators using the information table, determine the pre-adopted indicators and obtain reference information, analyze the scoring results of the obtained reference information, calculate the Kendall coordination coefficient based on the scoring results, and determine the consistency of the reference information, including: in the first round of information acquisition, the rationality and importance of the initial screening indicators are evaluated by scoring, and at the same time, the inclusion of new indicators and the deletion of unreasonable indicators are analyzed to obtain the first indicator; after the first round of information acquisition is completed, the risk system is modified and adjusted, and the information obtained in the first round of information is summarized to form a comprehensive opinion, and a second round of information acquisition is carried out according to the comprehensive opinion, and the adjusted indicators are scored again according to their importance to obtain a second indicator.

[0058] Based on the content of the above device embodiment, as an optional embodiment, the device for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities provided in the embodiment of the present invention further includes: a second submodule for implementing the determination of the weight coefficient of each indicator, including:

[0059]

[0060] Among them, Wj is the weight coefficient of indicator j, i is the number of evaluation levels, Ri is the score ranked in the i-th level, Ni is the frequency of an indicator in the i-th level, N is the number of experts who have put forward opinions on the indicator, and n is the number of levels.

[0061] Based on the content of the above device embodiment, as an optional embodiment, the device for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities provided in the embodiment of the present invention further includes: a third submodule, which is used to calculate the percentage of the total weighted score of the indicators affecting the possibility of risk occurrence and the severity of risk consequences to the maximum score, including:

[0062]

[0063] Among them, Gj is the score of indicator j, P is the percentage value, and m is the number of indicators.

[0064] Based on the content of the above-mentioned device embodiment, as an optional embodiment, the mosquito-borne disease transmission risk assessment device in group gathering activities provided in the embodiment of the present invention also includes: a fourth sub-module, used to realize the calculation of the combined weight coefficient of the second indicator according to the first indicator using the product method, including: the combined weight coefficient of the second indicator = the second indicator weight coefficient × the corresponding first indicator weight coefficient.

[0065] Based on the content of the above-mentioned device embodiment, as an optional embodiment, the mosquito-borne disease transmission risk assessment device in group gathering activities provided in the embodiment of the present invention also includes: a fifth sub-module, which is used to implement the assessment of the possibility of mosquito-borne disease transmission risk and the severity of risk consequences according to the percentage value, and obtain an assessment result, including: dividing the possibility of risk occurrence into 5 levels, and defining each level respectively; dividing the severity of risk consequences into 5 levels, and using the percentage of the total weighted score of the indicator to the maximum score as the judgment standard for the possibility of risk occurrence and the severity of risk consequences, and dividing it into 5 levels from high to low.

[0066] Based on the content of the above-mentioned device embodiment, as an optional embodiment, the device for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities provided in the embodiment of the present invention also includes: a sixth sub-module, which is used to implement, after determining the risk level of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities by using the risk matrix according to the assessment results, it also includes: constructing an index system for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities according to the risk level of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities.

[0067] The method of the embodiment of the present invention is implemented by relying on electronic devices, so it is necessary to introduce the relevant electronic devices. Based on this purpose, the embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device, such as Figure 3 As shown, the electronic device includes: at least one processor, a communication interface, at least one memory, and a communication bus, wherein at least one processor, the communication interface, and at least one memory communicate with each other through the communication bus. At least one processor can call the logic instructions in at least one memory to execute all or part of the steps of the method provided by the aforementioned various method embodiments.

[0068] In addition, the logic instructions in the at least one memory mentioned above can be implemented in the form of a software functional unit and can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium when it is sold or used as an independent product. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of the present invention can be essentially or partly embodied in the form of a software product that contributes to the prior art. The computer software product is stored in a storage medium and includes several instructions for a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to perform all or part of the steps of the method described in each method embodiment of the present invention. The aforementioned storage medium includes: various media that can store program codes, such as a USB flash drive, a mobile hard disk, a read-only memory (ROM), a random access memory (RAM), a magnetic disk or an optical disk.

[0069] The device embodiments described above are merely illustrative, wherein the units described as separate components may or may not be physically separated, and the components displayed as units may or may not be physical units, that is, they may be located in one place, or they may be distributed on multiple network units. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the scheme of this embodiment. Ordinary technicians in this field can understand and implement it without paying creative labor.

[0070] Through the description of the above implementation methods, those skilled in the art can clearly understand that each implementation method can be implemented by means of software plus a necessary general hardware platform, and of course can also be implemented by hardware. Based on this understanding, the above technical solution is essentially or the part that contributes to the prior art can be embodied in the form of a software product, and the computer software product can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, such as ROM / RAM, a disk, an optical disk, etc., including a number of instructions for a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to execute the methods described in each embodiment or some parts of the embodiments.

[0071] The flowcharts and block diagrams in the accompanying drawings show the possible architecture, functions and operations of the systems, methods and computer program products according to multiple embodiments of the present invention. Based on this understanding, each box in the flowchart or block diagram can represent a module, a program segment or a part of a code, and the module, a program segment or a part of the code contains one or more executable instructions for realizing the specified logical function. It should also be noted that in some alternative implementations, the functions marked in the box can also occur in a different order from the order marked in the accompanying drawings. For example, two consecutive boxes can actually be executed substantially in parallel, and sometimes in the opposite order, depending on the functions involved. It should also be noted that each box in the block diagram and / or the flowchart, and the combination of the boxes in the block diagram and / or the flowchart can be implemented with a dedicated hardware-based system that performs a specified function or action, or can be implemented with a combination of dedicated hardware and computer instructions.

[0072] In this patent, the terms "include", "comprises" or any other variation thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that a process, method, article or device including a series of elements includes not only those elements, but also includes other elements not explicitly listed, or also includes elements inherent to such process, method, article or device. In the absence of more restrictions, the elements defined by the sentence "includes..." do not exclude the presence of other identical elements in the process, method, article or device including the elements.

[0073] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or make equivalent replacements for some of the technical features therein. However, these modifications or replacements do not deviate the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities, characterized in that: include: Each indicator is divided into several levels, and each level is assigned a value to obtain an information table. The information table is used to evaluate the initial screening indicators, determine the pre-adoption indicators and obtain reference information, and analyze the scoring results of the reference information obtained; The information table is used to evaluate the initial screening indicators, determine the pre-adopted indicators and obtain reference information, analyze the scoring results of the reference information obtained, calculate the Kendall coordination coefficient according to the scoring results, and determine the consistency of the reference information, including: the first round of information acquisition evaluates the rationality and importance of the initial screening indicators by scoring, and analyzes whether new indicators are included and unreasonable indicators are deleted to obtain the first indicator; after the first round of information acquisition, the risk system is modified and adjusted, and the information obtained in the first round of information is summarized to form a comprehensive opinion, and the second round of information acquisition is carried out according to the comprehensive opinion, and the adjusted indicators are scored again in terms of importance to obtain the second indicator; The Kendall coordination coefficient is calculated based on the scoring results to determine the consistency of the reference information and the weight coefficient of each indicator. The second indicator uses the product method to calculate the combined weight coefficient based on the first indicator. Among them, the first indicator includes: infectious diseases, media factors, susceptibility of the population and prevention and control measures; the second indicator is a sub-dimension of the first indicator, and its corresponding relationship with the first indicator is as follows: The sub-dimensions of infectious diseases include: global prevalence of mosquito-borne infectious diseases, domestic incidence in the past five years, local incidence in the past five years, importation of local mosquito-borne infectious diseases in the past five years, animal host infection in the past five years, and the proportion of mobile population coming from high-risk areas for disease epidemics during the activity period; The sub-dimensions of vector factors include: density of vector mosquitoes, composition ratio of vector mosquitoes, geographical distribution of vector mosquitoes, breeding grounds, vector efficacy, number of animal hosts, animal host species, seasonal changes, natural infection rate of vector mosquitoes, insecticide resistance of vector mosquitoes, blood-sucking habits of vector mosquitoes, and precipitation conditions in the first half of the month before the activity; The sub-dimensions of population susceptibility include: local population immunity, floating population immunity, population susceptibility, local population living environment and hygiene behavior habits, activity site environment, and local population’s knowledge, belief and behavior on related diseases and vector control; The sub-dimensions of prevention and control measures include: the ability to identify the source of infection at an early stage, the government's coordination mechanism and ability among various departments, the ability to monitor mosquito vectors, the difficulty of controlling mosquito vectors, the ability to control mosquito vectors, the ability to deal with and respond to epidemics, the ability to deal with diseases in medical treatment, and the application of vaccines and their effectiveness; Calculate a weighted score for each indicator to obtain the percentage of the total weighted score of the indicators that affect the likelihood of risk occurrence and the severity of risk consequences to the maximum score; evaluate the likelihood of mosquito-borne disease transmission risk and the severity of risk consequences based on the percentage value to obtain an evaluation result, and use a risk matrix to determine the risk level of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities based on the evaluation result; Determining the weight coefficient of each indicator includes: Where Wj is the weight coefficient of indicator j, i is the number of evaluation levels, Ri is the score of the i-th level, Ni is the frequency of an indicator in the i-th level, N is the number of experts who put forward opinions on the indicator, and n is the number of levels; Calculate the percentage of the total weighted score of the indicators that affect the likelihood of risk occurrence and the severity of risk consequences to the maximum score, including: Among them, Gj is the score of indicator j, P is the percentage value, and m is the number of indicators.

2. The method for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities according to claim 1, characterized in that: The second indicator calculates a combined weight coefficient according to the first indicator by a product method, including: a combined weight coefficient of the second indicator=a second indicator weight coefficient×a corresponding weight coefficient of the first indicator.

3. The method for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities according to claim 2, characterized in that: The possibility of mosquito-borne disease transmission risk and the severity of risk consequences are evaluated according to the percentage value to obtain an evaluation result, including: dividing the possibility of risk occurrence into 5 levels and defining each level respectively; dividing the severity of risk consequences into 5 levels, and using the percentage of the total weighted score of the indicator to the maximum score as the percentage of the risk occurrence possibility and the severity of risk consequences, and dividing them into 5 levels from high to low.

4. The method for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities according to claim 3, characterized in that: After using the risk matrix to determine the risk level of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities based on the assessment results, it also includes: constructing a mosquito-borne disease transmission risk assessment indicator system in group gathering activities based on the risk level of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities.

5. A device for assessing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities, characterized in that: include: The first module is used to divide each indicator into several levels, assign values ​​to each level to obtain an information table, use the information table to evaluate the initial screening indicators, determine the pre-adoption indicators and obtain reference information, and analyze the scoring results of the reference information obtained; The information table is used to evaluate the initial screening indicators, determine the pre-adopted indicators and obtain reference information, analyze the scoring results of the reference information obtained, calculate the Kendall coordination coefficient according to the scoring results, and determine the consistency of the reference information, including: the first round of information acquisition evaluates the rationality and importance of the initial screening indicators by scoring, and analyzes whether new indicators are included and unreasonable indicators are deleted to obtain the first indicator; after the first round of information acquisition, the risk system is modified and adjusted, and the information obtained in the first round of information is summarized to form a comprehensive opinion, and the second round of information acquisition is carried out according to the comprehensive opinion, and the adjusted indicators are scored again in terms of importance to obtain the second indicator; The second module is used to calculate the Kendall coordination coefficient based on the scoring results, determine the consistency of the reference information, and determine the weight coefficient of each indicator. The second indicator uses the product method to calculate the combined weight coefficient based on the first indicator; Among them, the first indicator includes: infectious diseases, media factors, susceptibility of the population and prevention and control measures; the second indicator is a sub-dimension of the first indicator, and its corresponding relationship with the first indicator is as follows: The sub-dimensions of infectious diseases include: global prevalence of mosquito-borne infectious diseases, domestic incidence in the past five years, local incidence in the past five years, importation of local mosquito-borne infectious diseases in the past five years, animal host infection in the past five years, and the proportion of mobile population coming from high-risk areas for disease epidemics during the activity period; The sub-dimensions of vector factors include: density of vector mosquitoes, composition ratio of vector mosquitoes, geographical distribution of vector mosquitoes, breeding grounds, vector efficacy, number of animal hosts, animal host species, seasonal changes, natural infection rate of vector mosquitoes, insecticide resistance of vector mosquitoes, blood-sucking habits of vector mosquitoes, and precipitation conditions in the first half of the month before the activity; The sub-dimensions of population susceptibility include: local population immunity, floating population immunity, population susceptibility, local population living environment and hygiene behavior habits, activity site environment, and local population’s knowledge, belief and behavior on related diseases and vector control; The sub-dimensions of prevention and control measures include: the ability to identify the source of infection at an early stage, the government's coordination mechanism and ability among various departments, the ability to monitor mosquito vectors, the difficulty of controlling mosquito vectors, the ability to control mosquito vectors, the ability to deal with and respond to epidemics, the ability to deal with diseases in medical treatment, and the application of vaccines and their effectiveness; The third module is used to calculate the weighted score of each indicator to obtain the percentage of the total weighted score of the indicators that affect the possibility of risk occurrence and the severity of risk consequences to the maximum score; the possibility of mosquito-borne disease transmission risk and the severity of risk consequences are evaluated according to the percentage value to obtain the evaluation result, and the risk matrix is ​​used to determine the risk level of mosquito-borne disease transmission in group gathering activities according to the evaluation result; Determining the weight coefficient of each indicator includes: Where Wj is the weight coefficient of indicator j, i is the number of evaluation levels, Ri is the score of the i-th level, Ni is the frequency of an indicator in the i-th level, N is the number of experts who put forward opinions on the indicator, and n is the number of levels; Calculate the percentage of the total weighted score of the indicators that affect the likelihood of risk occurrence and the severity of risk consequences to the maximum score, including: Among them, Gj is the score of indicator j, P is the percentage value, and m is the number of indicators.

6. An electronic device, characterized in that: include: At least one processor, at least one memory and a communication interface; wherein, The processor, memory and communication interface communicate with each other; The memory stores program instructions that can be executed by the processor, and the processor calls the program instructions to execute the method according to any one of claims 1 to 4.

7. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium stores computer instructions, which cause the computer to execute the method of any one of claims 1 to 4.

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