Probabilistic earthquake hazard calculation method based on spatial integration of three-dimensional fault source influence

Through the probability earthquake risk calculation method based on the influence spatial integral of three-dimensional fault source, the problem that traditional methods are not suitable for the three-dimensional fault source model is solved, and efficient estimation of the near-fault earthquake risk is achieved, and technical support is provided for the compilation of earthquake parameter zoning maps.

CN118747262BActive Publication Date: 2025-04-01INST OF GEOPHYSICS CHINA EARTHQUAKE ADMINISTRATION
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Patent Information

Application Number
CN202410726559.6
Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Patents(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Filing Date
2024-06-06
Publication Date
2025-04-01
Estimated Expiration
2044-06-06

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

In the prior art, the traditional probabilistic earthquake risk analysis program is not suitable for three-dimensional fault source models and earthquake shock models, and does not consider the source rupture scale of large earthquakes, resulting in the earthquake risk of near-faults being underestimated.

Method used

The probability earthquake risk calculation method based on the influence of spatial integral of three-dimensional fault sources is used. By using the fault's geographical geometric parameters, upper magnitude limit and spatial distribution function of the earthquake magnitude, the earthquake incidence rate of each magnitude on the three-dimensional fault surface is calculated, and the rupture surface is created, and the rupture surface is moved to calculate the distance index from the field point to the rupture surface. Finally, the space integration method is used to calculate the earthquake risk.

Benefits of technology

It realizes efficient modeling of three-dimensional fault sources, is compatible with the traditional plane latent source and point elliptical attenuation relationship, takes into account the fracture scale of the earthquake, improves the estimation accuracy of near-fault earthquake risk, and provides scientific and technological support for the compilation of the sixth-generation earthquake parameter zoning map.

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Abstract

The present invention discloses a method for calculating probabilistic earthquake hazard based on spatial integration of three-dimensional fault source influence. On the basis of the fifth-generation seismic motion parameter zoning map calculation program, compatibility with three-dimensional fault sources is added to the source model. An efficient calculation method for probabilistic earthquake hazard that is applicable to three-dimensional fault sources and a new generation of attenuation relationships is developed using the spatial integration method. The present invention is compatible with traditional plane potential sources and point ellipse attenuation relationships, and can also consider the earthquake rupture scale and be compatible with the probabilistic earthquake hazard calculation of three-dimensional fault sources, thereby realizing efficient modeling of fault sources. Based on the inheritance of the two-dimensional plane potential sources of the fifth-generation map, the present invention integrates the probabilistic earthquake hazard calculation of the three-dimensional fault source model, and can provide scientific and technological support for the compilation of the sixth-generation seismic motion parameter zoning map.
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