Urban area-oriented weather disaster risk grading assessment method and system

CN122928022APending Publication Date: 2026-10-16内蒙古自治区气象服务中心(内蒙古自治区气象宣传与科普中心)
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Patent Information

Application Number
CN202611218767.0
Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Filing Date
2026-08-12
Publication Date
2026-10-16

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

[0006]本申请通过提供面向城镇区域的气象灾害风险分级评定方法及系统,解决了现有技术中承灾体暴露度静态化导致其时变周期与气象致灾因子时空尺度不可耦合,进而引发风险等级在灾害过程时相上系统性偏移及应急资源时序错配的问题,实现了暴露度时变周期与气象致灾因子时空尺度的有效耦合,消除风险等级在灾害时相上的偏移,保障风险分级峰值与实际灾损峰值同步及应急资源精准调度的效果

Benefits of technology

[0057] By decomposing the variation pattern of static baseline exposure data into three levels—daily, weekly, and seasonal—and combining it with mobile communication location data to calculate the corresponding adjustment coefficients to generate dynamic exposure data, the advantage of enabling the exposure field at the risk classification input end to have a complete time-varying rhythm is obtained. This overcomes the shortcomings of traditional static exposure "freeze snapshots" that cannot reflect population tidal migration and holiday surges, and avoids the systematic loss of temporal information of the exposure of disaster-bearing bodies at the entry point of the classification process.

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Abstract

The application discloses a weather disaster risk grading evaluation method and system for urban areas, and belongs to the technical field of data analysis. The method comprises the following steps: obtaining static reference exposure data of a target urban area; decomposing into daily variation rules, weekly variation rules and seasonal variation rules; calculating an adjustment coefficient, and generating dynamic exposure data, to hourly phase interpolation exposure data; at each evaluation time point, obtaining meteorological hazard factor data and corresponding hourly phase interpolation exposure data of the current time point, calculating a risk index of the current time point, and determining a risk grade. The application achieves the effects of exposure degree and disaster-causing factor space-time coupling and elimination of risk phase shift by constructing dynamic exposure degree and calculating risk by aligning the time of meteorological disaster-causing factors, and solves the problems of space-time scale uncoupling and emergency resource mismatch caused by static exposure degree in the prior art.
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