Artificial intelligence-based microgrid short-term load prediction optimization control method

CN122931684APending Publication Date: 2026-10-16FUZHOU WELEIKE ELECTRIC CO LTD
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Patent Information

Application Number
CN202611154098.5
Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Filing Date
2026-07-31
Publication Date
2026-10-16

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

现有的微电网负荷预测方法多依赖单一的统计模型或浅层神经网络,这类方法在处理由可再生能源渗透、用户随机用电行为引发的强非线性、非平稳负荷序列时,表征能力受限,预测误差较大且难以捕捉负荷的局部突发波动

Benefits of technology

对多源时序数据集合进行经验模态分解处理,将原始复杂负荷信号自适应地分离为从高频到低频排列的多个本征模态函数分量和一个残余分量。这一处理方式将原始非平稳序列中交织的不同尺度波动模式充分展开,使得后续预测能够针对每个相对平稳的单分量独立建模。对各本征模态函数分量分别构建基于混沌相空间重构的预测结构,采用C-C方法确定嵌入维数和延迟时间重构相空间,能够从看似随机的负荷波动分量中恢复其内在的确定性动力学结构,在重构相空间内利用加权一阶局域法拟合状态转移函数,通过最近邻点演化计算未来时刻的相点坐标并提取预测值。这种分量级的相空间预测充分利用了负荷子序列自身的混沌演化规律,避免了传统全局建模对不同频段特征的平均化处理,使高频随机波动分量和低频趋势分量都能获得符合其动力学本质的预测结果,显著抑制了多步预测中的误差发散。残余分量采用灰色模型GM(1,1)进行趋势预测,该模型对小样本、贫信息的平滑趋势序列具有较高的建模效率。所有分量的预测值在相同时间点上直接求和重构,得到最终负荷预测值,该重构过程保留了各尺度成分预测的独立性优势,使整体预测精度不易受单一成分预测偏差的影响。

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Abstract

The application discloses a short-term load prediction optimization control method for a micro-grid based on artificial intelligence and belongs to the technical field of micro-grid load prediction control. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring real-time load data, meteorological data and calendar characteristic data of the micro-grid to form a multi-source time series data set; performing empirical mode decomposition processing on the multi-source time series data set to obtain a plurality of intrinsic mode function components and a residual component; constructing a prediction structure based on chaotic phase space reconstruction for each intrinsic mode function component to obtain short-term prediction values of the components; accumulating and reconstructing the short-term prediction values of the components and the prediction value of the residual component to obtain short-term load prediction values of the micro-grid; and generating power scheduling instructions of the micro-grid according to the deviation between the short-term load prediction values and actual loads by using a model prediction control framework and feeding back the power scheduling instructions to a micro-grid control system for execution.
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