Marine Vessel Fuel Control System Using Predictive Voyage Modeling

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Solution Overview

Problem

Current fuel estimation methods for marine vessels are inadequate, leading to difficulties in accurately determining the amount of fuel needed for each leg of a voyage, which can result in fuel shortages or overloading, increasing the risk of emergency refueling at sea.

Innovation Solution

A method and system that utilize a predictive model to estimate fuel consumption based on data identifying the marine vessel and the voyage, with parameters fitted using historical data for multiple vessels and voyages, allowing for precise calculation of fuel needs for each voyage leg.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Measurement precision

If traditional fuel estimation methods are used, then fuel supply decisions are made, but accuracy of fuel consumption estimate deteriorates leading to fuel shortages or overloading

Engineering Contradiction:

Improvefuel consumption estimate accuracyVSAvoidfuel supply reliability

Core Design Contradiction:

Measurement precisionVSReliability

Solution Approach 1:

The system implements feedback by using actual fuel consumption data from completed voyages to continuously refine and update the predictive model parameters. This feedback loop allows the system to learn from historical performance and improve future estimates, resolving the contradiction between estimate accuracy and supply reliability.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #23Feedback

Solution Approach 2:

The system performs preliminary action by calculating fuel consumption estimates before voyages begin, allowing fuel supply decisions to be made in advance with optimized accuracy. The predictive model uses vessel-specific and voyage-specific parameters to provide ahead-of-time estimates, preventing fuel shortages or overloading before they occur.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #10Preliminary action

2Ease of operation

If manual fuel supply supervision is used, then operational control is maintained, but fuel consumption estimation accuracy deteriorates

Engineering Contradiction:

Improvemanual control capabilityVSAvoidfuel consumption estimate accuracy

Core Design Contradiction:

Ease of operationVSMeasurement precision

Solution Approach 1:

The system implements self-service by enabling automatic fuel consumption estimation through the predictive model, which processes vessel and voyage data to generate accurate forecasts without requiring manual intervention. This automated approach maintains ease of operation while dramatically improving estimation accuracy compared to manual methods.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #25Self-service

Solution Approach 2:

The system replaces manual mechanical estimation processes with a computational predictive model that uses historical data and algorithmic processing. This substitution of human judgment with a data-driven mathematical model resolves the contradiction by providing superior accuracy while maintaining operational simplicity through automated calculations.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #28Mechanics substitution (Replace mechanical system)

3Reliability

If fuel is supplied based on conservative estimates, then fuel shortages are avoided, but vessel efficiency deteriorates due to overloading

Engineering Contradiction:

Improvefuel adequacyVSAvoidvessel efficiency

Core Design Contradiction:

ReliabilityVSProductivity

Solution Approach 1:

The system changes parameters by using vessel-specific and voyage-specific variables in the predictive model, such as ship type, age, fuel type, route conditions, and weather patterns. This parameterized approach replaces conservative generic estimates with precise customized calculations, achieving both fuel adequacy and optimal vessel efficiency by matching fuel supply to actual predicted consumption.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #35Parameter changes

4Measurement precision

If complex predictive models are used, then fuel consumption accuracy is improved, but system complexity increases

Engineering Contradiction:

Improvefuel consumption estimate accuracyVSAvoidpredictive model complexity

Core Design Contradiction:

Measurement precisionVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The system applies segmentation by dividing the predictive model into distinct modular components: data collection modules, historical data processing modules, predictive calculation modules, and output generation modules. This segmentation allows complex accuracy-improving functionality to be achieved through manageable, independent components that can be developed and maintained separately, reducing overall system complexity.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #1Segmentation

Data Source

PatentUS12330758B2Fuel supply for a marine vessel

Publication Date: 2025.06.17 A P MOLLER AS

AI summary

A marine vessel fuel control system may comprise an interface to receive data identifying the vessel and data identifying a voyage to be undertaken by the vessel. The control system may also comprise a memory to store program code to implement a predictive model and parameter values for the model, the values resulting from an optimisation of the model using historical data for marine vessels and voyages. The control system may also comprise a processor arranged to execute the program code to: instantiate the model using the values; supply the data identifying the vessel and the data identifying the voyage to be undertaken to the model; and apply the model to determine a fuel consumption estimate for the vessel for the voyage. A fuel supply system determines an amount of fuel to be supplied to at least one fuel tank of the vessel based on the fuel consumption estimate.