Probabilistic Arrival Time Estimation for Ship Route Planning
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Solution Overview
Problem
Commercial ships often face delays in arriving at destinations, leading to increased costs, disrupted operations, and reduced fuel efficiency, due to unreliable long-term weather forecasts and the need for frequent route adjustments amidst changing conditions.
Innovation Solution
A method and apparatus that generate probabilities of on-time arrival for multiple ship routes by analyzing weather, tide, and current conditions, allowing operators to select routes that balance speed and fuel efficiency with the likelihood of reaching the destination on time.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Loss of time
If the ship increases speed to arrive early, then the arrival time is improved, but fuel efficiency deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary calculations of arrival time probabilities for multiple potential routes before the voyage begins. By pre-computing the probabilistic arrival time distribution for each route option, the captain can make an informed decision about the optimal balance between speed and fuel efficiency without needing to increase speed as a corrective measure after planning.
Solution Approach 2:
The system changes the parameter from deterministic arrival time to probabilistic arrival time distribution. Instead of planning for a single fixed arrival time, the system provides a probability distribution showing the likelihood of arriving within different time windows, allowing the captain to select a route that achieves acceptable arrival timing while maintaining fuel efficiency.
2Reliability
If the ship waits for scheduled berth at port, then berth availability is improved, but operational costs increase
Solution Approach 1:
The system provides feedback to the captain about the probabilistic arrival time distribution, which includes information about the likelihood of arriving before, on, or after the scheduled berth time. This feedback enables the captain to adjust the voyage plan proactively - potentially arriving slightly earlier than the scheduled time with acceptable probability to secure the berth, thereby avoiding the need to wait and the associated operational costs.
3Reliability
If the ship arrives on time, then delivery reliability is improved, but fuel consumption increases due to bursts of speed
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary route analysis and calculates the probability distribution of arrival times for different speed profiles before the voyage begins. By pre-determining the optimal balance point between speed and fuel efficiency based on probabilistic arrival time calculations, the captain can maintain steady, fuel-efficient speeds throughout the voyage while still achieving reliable on-time arrival, avoiding the need for high-speed bursts.
Data Source
AI summary
A method, apparatus, and computer program product are present for generating a route for a ship. A start point and an end point are identified for the ship. A number of forecasts of weather conditions is obtained for a period of time to travel from the start point to the end point. A probability of reaching the end point from the start point is generated for a number of routes from the start point to the end point for the ship within the period of time using the number of forecasts of weather conditions to form a number of probabilities.