Ship Collision Risk Calculation Using Future Direction Ranges

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Solution Overview

Problem

Existing methods for calculating collision risk between ships, such as using Time-To-Collision (TTC), fail when expected course straight lines of two ships do not intersect, making it impossible to calculate the risk of collision despite potential hazards, especially when ships pass each other.

Innovation Solution

A collision risk calculation method and device that acquire traveling information on both ships, calculate future traveling direction ranges based on past sailing data, and assess the risk of collision using frequency distributions and hierarchical clustering to determine probable future courses and speeds, allowing for risk calculation even when expected courses do not intersect.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Ease of manufacture

If Time-To-Collision (TTC) method is used to calculate collision risk, then the calculation is simple and straightforward, but it becomes impossible to calculate risk when expected course straight lines of two ships do not intersect

Engineering Contradiction:

Improvesimplicity of calculation methodVSAvoidability to calculate collision risk

Core Design Contradiction:

Ease of manufactureVSReliability

Solution Approach 1:

The patent changes the fundamental parameters of collision risk calculation from using fixed expected course straight lines to using probability distributions of future traveling directions. Instead of calculating TTC based on deterministic linear extrapolation, the system calculates risk by integrating over multiple possible future courses weighted by their probabilities, enabling risk calculation even when straight lines don't intersect.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #35Parameter changes

Solution Approach 2:

The patent introduces dynamic elements to the collision risk calculation by using probability distributions that can adapt to different sailing situations. The future traveling direction ranges are determined dynamically based on ship types, sailing conditions, and historical data, allowing the system to handle both intersecting and non-intersecting course scenarios effectively.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #15Dynamics

2Measurement precision

If expected course straight lines are used for collision risk calculation, then the method works well when courses intersect, but it fails to provide risk assessment when courses do not intersect

Engineering Contradiction:

Improveaccuracy of collision risk calculationVSAvoidapplicability to different sailing scenarios

Core Design Contradiction:

Measurement precisionVSAdaptability or versatility

Solution Approach 1:

The patent creates a universal collision risk calculation method that can handle multiple sailing scenarios including both intersecting and non-intersecting courses, head-on situations, and passing maneuvers. The probability distribution approach serves as a multi-functional framework that adapts to different ship types, sailing conditions, and geometric configurations, making the system universally applicable.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #6Universality (Multi-functionality)

Solution Approach 2:

The patent introduces probability distributions of future traveling directions as an intermediary between the simple TTC method and complex multi-variable risk assessment. This intermediary layer allows the system to maintain computational efficiency while capturing the uncertainty and variability in ship behavior, bridging the gap between deterministic and probabilistic approaches.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #24Intermediary (Mediator)

3Productivity

If traditional TTC method is applied, then computation is fast and efficient, but it cannot assess collision risk in passing situations where courses do not intersect

Engineering Contradiction:

Improvecomputational efficiencyVSAvoidcompleteness of risk assessment

Core Design Contradiction:

ProductivityVSReliability

Solution Approach 1:

The patent applies partial action by focusing computation on the most critical aspects of collision risk - the probability distributions of future traveling directions and their overlap - rather than computing all possible variables. This selective approach maintains computational efficiency while capturing the essential risk factors, avoiding unnecessary complexity in non-critical areas.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #16Partial or excessive action

Data Source

PatentUS10192449B2Collision risk calculation method, collision risk calculation device, and computer-readable recording medium

Publication Date: 2019.01.29 FUJITSU LTD

AI summary

A non-transitory computer-readable recording medium stores a collision risk calculation program that causes a computer to execute a process including: acquiring traveling information on a position and a speed of each of a first ship and a second ship; calculating a future traveling direction range of one or both of the first ship and the second ship based on a position of each of the first ship and the second ship and traveling information of a ship that sailed in a past; and calculating a risk of collision between the first ship and the second ship based on the future traveling direction range.