Water resource bearing capacity prediction method considering factor interaction

By constructing a multi-dimensional water resource carrying capacity evaluation index system and interaction analysis model, combined with the SVM model, the problem of ignoring factor interaction in the existing technology is solved, and more accurate water resource carrying capacity prediction is achieved, providing a new perspective for water resource management.

CN119721506APending Publication Date: 2025-03-28JIANGXI ACAD OF WATER RESOURCES (JIANGXI PROVINCE DAM SAFETY MANAGEMENT CENT JIANGXI PROVINCE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT CENT)
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Patent Information

Application Number
CN202510226523.6
Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Filing Date
2025-02-27
Publication Date
2025-03-28

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

The existing water resource carrying capacity prediction methods mainly focus on the impact of a single factor on the water resource carrying capacity, ignoring the interaction between factors and its comprehensive impact on the spatial heterogeneity of water resource carrying capacity.

Method used

A water resource bearing capacity prediction method that considers the interaction of factors is adopted. By collecting indicators of water resources, social, economic and ecological environment dimensions, a water resource bearing capacity evaluation index system is constructed, the CRITIC method and GRA-TOPSIS method are used to calculate the weights of each indicator and construct an evaluation model. Combined with the geographic detector, the impact of factors on the spatial anisotropy of water resource bearing capacity is analyzed, and the relationship between the factor and the water resource bearing capacity is fitted through the SVM model, a regression model is established for prediction.

Benefits of technology

This method not only considers the impact of a single factor on water resource bearing capacity, but also incorporates the interaction between factors into the prediction model, which more comprehensively reveals the spatiotemporal characteristics of water resource bearing capacity, improves prediction accuracy, and provides a reference for regional water resource management and optimized allocation.

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Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of water resource management, and particularly discloses a water resource bearing capacity prediction method considering factor interaction, and the method comprises the steps: considering the influence of water resources, society, economy and ecological environment, and building a water resource bearing capacity evaluation index system; constructing a water resource bearing capacity evaluation model, and measuring and calculating regional water resource bearing capacity; detecting explanatory force of a single factor and an interaction factor in the system on the water resource bearing capacity based on a geographic detector, and checking the multicollinearity of the factors to obtain a final single factor and an interaction factor; and establishing a regression relationship between the influence factors and the water resource bearing capacity by adopting an SVM model, and predicting the water resource bearing capacity on the basis of predicting each influence factor. According to the method provided by the invention, on the basis of considering the geospatial diversity of the factors, the interaction factors are creatively integrated into the water resource bearing capacity prediction model, and the optimization of the model structure is realized, so that the accuracy and reliability of the prediction model are improved.
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