A method for predicting enterprise tax burden risk based on time sequence and association rule

By extracting the enterprise's personalized business cycle and combining it with association rules and time-series prediction models based on time decay weights, the high misjudgment rate and traceability difficulties in tax burden risk identification in existing technologies have been solved, achieving highly accurate tax burden risk prediction and traceability.

CN122415241APending Publication Date: 2026-07-17CHINASOFT CLOUD ENTERPRISE INFORMATION SERVICES (NANJING) CO LTD
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Filing Date
2026-03-27
Publication Date
2026-07-17

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

In existing technologies, association rule algorithms and time series prediction algorithms cannot accurately match the business characteristics of enterprises in predicting corporate tax burden risks, resulting in insufficient accuracy and timeliness in tax burden risk identification and a high misjudgment rate.

Method used

By acquiring multi-source historical data of target enterprises, data preprocessing and periodic feature extraction are performed to establish a personalized business cycle list. A time decay weighted association rule algorithm is used to mine weighted business association rules. Historical tax burden rate time series data and business association rules are input into the time series prediction model for training to generate a tax burden rate prediction interval that integrates business association logic. The prediction is then double-validated by combining association matching and interval matching.

Benefits of technology

It has enabled accurate assessment and tracing of the causes of corporate tax burden risks, improved the accuracy of anomaly identification to over 90%, and increased tax audit efficiency by 60%.

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Abstract

本发明涉及风险预测技术领域,具体提供一种基于时序与关联规则的企业税负风险预测方法,通过获取目标企业的多源历史数据,进行数据预处理与周期特征提取,得到目标企业的个性化业务周期列表;基于个性化业务周期列表,采用引入时间衰减权重的关联规则算法,从多源历史数据中挖掘加权业务关联规则,作为业务关联基准;通过训练时序预测模型,得到融合业务关联逻辑的税负率预测区间;最终判断目标企业的税负风险状态并输出异常溯源信息。通过上述方案,解决了本发明从根本上解决了传统方法因忽略时间权重、脱离业务关联而导致的误判率高、无法溯源难题。
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