Power plan preparation system

Abstract

To provide a power plan preparation system that can automate preparation and correction of a power generation plan, a power sales plan, and other plans, on the basis of preset conditions, and according to changes in situations, such as a change in weather, the influence of current affair information, a variation of an imbalance fee, and stop of the operation of a power facility.SOLUTION: In a power operation system, a management server has: a type selection unit that selects one of a plurality of power generation amount prediction types; a plan preparation unit that prepares a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan on the basis of a power generation amount prediction value corresponding to the selected power generation amount prediction types; a determination control unit that, when determining whether the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan satisfy a predetermined condition, and determining that the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan satisfy the predetermined condition, outputs change instruction information for manually or automatically changing the prepared power generation plan and / or the power sales plan; and a plan changing unit that receives the change instruction information and changes the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 3

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a power planning system.

Background Art

[0002] Conventionally, in power generation methods that are easily affected by weather conditions such as solar power generation and wind power generation, attempts have been made to buy and sell electricity in accordance with fluctuations in the amount of electricity generated per hour.

[0003] Patent Document 1 describes a power management system that creates a power generation plan based on power demand prediction data created from power demand individual information on the demand side of power and weather information, and a bidding plan based on the power generation plan, assumed exchange prices assumed for bidding conditions and settlement prices at a power exchange.

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0004]

Patent Document 1

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0005] Based on the Electricity Business Act and the terms and conditions of transmission and supply, each power generation business operator or each power generation contractor (a party entrusted with power operation by a power generation business operator) must submit a next-day plan (power generation sales plan and demand procurement plan) prepared for every 48 30-minute frames to the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators (OCCTO) by noon on the day before the day of receiving power, which places a heavy burden on the business operators. Furthermore, plans must be submitted on a daily, weekly, monthly, and annual basis, and even after they have been submitted, they must change the submitted plan to respond to ever-changing information on power supply and demand (weather changes, fluctuations in imbalance charges, power generation facility shutdowns, etc.). In addition, when it comes to bidding to buy and sell power on the Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX), the supply and demand adjustment market, the capacity market, etc., the business operators must bear a heavy burden, such as selecting the optimal bidding market for every 30-minute frame, and determining the bidding conditions, bidding timing, bidding amount, and bidding method. The invention described in Patent Document 1 creates a power generation plan and a bidding plan, but does not automate the creation and modification of the power generation plan and the bidding plan.

[0006] The present invention has been made in consideration of the above circumstances, and provides an electricity planning system (hereinafter referred to as this planning system) that can automate the creation and modification of power generation plans, electricity sales plans, and other plans based on pre-set conditions in response to changes in circumstances such as changes in weather, the impact of current information, fluctuations in imbalance charges, and the shutdown of power generation facilities. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] In order to achieve the above object, according to one embodiment of the present invention, A type selection unit that selects one of a plurality of power generation prediction types; a plan creation unit that creates a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan based on a power generation prediction value corresponding to the selected power generation prediction type; a determination control unit that determines whether or not the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan satisfy a predetermined condition, and when it is determined that the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan satisfy the predetermined requirement, outputs change instruction information for manually or automatically changing the created power generation plan and / or the power sales plan; A plan change unit that receives change instruction information and changes the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan, A power generation plan creation system having the same is provided.

[0008] According to the present invention, by sequentially updating the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan based on the information related to the latest power supply and demand, it is possible to maximize the profit of the power generation business operator or the power generation contractor and minimize the risk of imbalance occurrence.

[0009] According to an embodiment of the present invention, A power generation plan creation system is provided, wherein the power generation amount prediction type includes a value calculated based on the upper limit value of the power generation amount prediction value, the lower limit value of the power generation amount prediction value, and / or the average value of the power generation amount prediction value, or a value calculated based on the past actual power generation amount value.

[0010] According to the present invention, a plurality of options are provided for the power generation amount prediction value used in the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan, and a plan can be created using the prediction value most suitable for the user's business policy.

[0011] According to an embodiment of the present invention, A power plan system is provided, wherein the predetermined conditions include one or more selected from the following i) to iv): i) The fluctuation range of the power generation amount prediction value calculated or acquired after the creation of the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan with respect to the power generation amount prediction value calculated or acquired at the time of creating the power generation plan or the power sales plan exceeds a preset threshold value. ii) The change in the operating status of the power generation facility that occurred after the creation of the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan corresponds to a predetermined change. iii) The change in the information of the wide-area reserve rate corresponds to a predetermined change. iv) The fluctuation range of the power purchase and sale price in the market with respect to the power purchase and sale price prediction value in the market calculated or acquired at the time of creating the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan exceeds a preset threshold value.

[0012] According to the present invention, when an event that can significantly affect the user's revenue occurs, the user's losses can be prevented by changing the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan.

[0013] According to an embodiment of the present invention, there is provided an acquisition unit that acquires information including a predicted power generation value corresponding to a further selected predicted power generation type, and a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan is created by a plan creation unit based on the predicted power generation value acquired by the acquisition unit.

[0014] According to the present invention, a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan can be created using a predicted power generation value acquired from an institution outside the power plan system of the present invention.

[0015] According to an embodiment of the present invention, there is provided a first power generation prediction unit that calculates a predicted power generation value using a learned model with past predicted power generation values and performance data as teacher data, and a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan is created by a plan creation unit based on the predicted power generation value calculated by the first power generation prediction unit.

[0016] According to the present invention, by using a learned model with past actual power generation values as teacher data, a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan based on a more accurate predicted power generation value can be created.

[0017] According to an embodiment of the present invention, an acquisition unit that periodically acquires weather forecast data and information including the actual power generation value in the power generation facility, a storage device that stores information including the actual power generation value, the power generation capacity, and the installation location of the power generation facility, and further has a second power generation prediction unit that calculates a predicted power generation value based on at least the latest weather forecast data and information including the actual power generation, the power generation capacity, and the installation location of the power generation facility. A power generation plan making unit creates a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan based on the predicted power generation amount calculated by the second power generation amount prediction unit, and a power generation plan system is provided.

[0018] According to the present invention, for power generation facilities that utilize renewable energy such as solar power generation and wind power generation, it is also possible to create a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan based on an accurate predicted power generation amount.

[0019] According to an embodiment of the present invention, the plan making unit creates a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan based on information including the predicted power generation amount, the predicted future power trading price in the power trading market, and the predicted future imbalance charge, and a power generation plan system is provided.

[0020] According to the present invention, it is possible to create a power sales plan that responds to fluctuations in the power trading price and improves the user's profit.

[0021] According to an embodiment of the present invention, a power trading price prediction value acquisition unit that acquires a predicted future power trading price, an imbalance charge prediction value acquisition unit that acquires a predicted future imbalance charge, and the plan making unit creates a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan based on information including the predicted power generation amount, the acquired predicted power trading price, and the acquired predicted imbalance charge, and a power generation plan system is provided.

[0022] According to the present invention, by acquiring and using the predicted future power generation amount, the predicted power trading price, and the acquired predicted imbalance charge, it is possible to create a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan that improves the user's profit.

[0023] According to an embodiment of the present invention, a power trading price prediction unit that calculates a predicted power trading price, An imbalance charge prediction unit that calculates a predicted value of the imbalance charge, having Based on the predicted power generation amount, the predicted power trading price calculated, and the predicted imbalance charge calculated, the power generation plan or the power sales plan is created. A power plan system is provided.

[0024] According to the present invention, by calculating and using the predicted future power generation amount, the predicted power trading price, and the obtained predicted imbalance charge value within the system, it is possible to create a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan that improves the user's profit.

[0025] According to one embodiment of the present invention, A power plan system is provided, in which the plan change unit acquires information on the latest power generation plan and / or power sales plan created by the plan creation unit.

[0026] According to the present invention, even after a plan is created, a new plan based on the latest information can be automatically created and the plan can be updated.

[0027] According to one embodiment of the present invention, A power plan system is provided, which has a change input unit that accepts an input for changing the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan instead of the plan change unit.

[0028] According to the present invention, it is possible to change the plan by manual input, respond to changes in situations that have a significant impact on the user's profit, and reduce losses.

[0029] According to one embodiment of the present invention, A power plan system is provided, in which the plan change unit and the change input unit are prohibited from changing a plan after the gate closing time.

[0030] According to the present invention, by not accepting an input after the gate closing when the plan cannot be changed, it is possible to prevent the user from performing incorrect plan consideration work.

[0031] According to an embodiment of the present invention, a power plan system is provided, in which a plan creation unit creates a power generation plan based on plan creation and submission rules preset for each target power generation facility.

[0032] According to the present invention, a power generation plan tailored to the circumstances of individual users can be created.

[0033] According to an embodiment of the present invention, a display data creation means for creating display data based on a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan is provided, the display data divides and displays the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan at preset dates and times, distinguishes and displays whether the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan can be changed based on at least the gate closing time, a power plan system is provided, which is data for displaying which of a plan change unit and a change input unit is enabled for the divided and displayed power generation plan and / or power sales plan.

[0034] According to the present invention, by devising the layout of the display screen on the user terminal, the convenience of user operations can be improved.

Advantages of the Invention

[0035] According to the power plan creation system of the present invention, by sequentially updating the power generation and sales plan based on information related to the latest power supply and demand, it is possible to maximize the profit of an aggregator or the like as a user and minimize the risk of imbalance, and at the same time, significantly reduce the practical burden involved in the update. In addition, by dividing and displaying the updatable power generation and sales plan in time units based on preset plan submission rules, the convenience of user system operations is improved.

Brief Description of the Drawings

[0036]

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5A

Figure 5B

Figure 5C

Figure 6

Figure 7

Figure 8A

Figure 8B

Figure 8C

Figure 8D

Figure 8E

Figure 8F

Figure 9A

Figure 9B

Figure 9C

Figure 10A

Figure 10B

Figure 11

Figure 12A

Figure 12B

Figure 12C

Figure 12D

Figure 12E

Figure 12F

Figure 13

Figure 14A

Figure 14B

Figure 14C

Figure 15

Figure 16

Figure 17

Mode for Carrying Out the Invention

[0037] Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. The following embodiments are examples, and the present invention is not construed as being limited to these embodiments.

[0038] In this specification, the entity using this planning creation system is called a user. The user is a power generation business operator, a power generation contractor, an aggregator, or a third party entrusted with part or all of the planning creation from these (hereinafter referred to as a power generation contractor, etc.), and includes a person who actually operates this planning creation system according to the instructions of a power generation contractor, etc. Also, there may be a plurality of users. In addition, the administrator of this planning creation system is not included in the users.

[0039] In this specification, the power generation and sales plan creation system includes, but is not limited to, a system for creating a power generation and sales plan (hereinafter referred to as the power generation and sales plan in this specification) to be submitted to the OCCTO. For example, it includes systems for creating power generation plans, sales plans, operation plans for storage batteries, etc. that are created by power generation businesses, power generation contractors, aggregators, etc. for internal consideration, and also includes systems for notifying these to retail electricity businesses, etc. The power generation and sales plan is created on a daily, weekly, monthly, annual, etc. basis. Among the daily plans, the plan for the next day submitted by noon (12:00) of the previous day is called the "next day plan", and the plan for the current day is called the "current day plan". The current day plan is submitted when a change occurs in the next day plan. Hereinafter, in this specification, a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan that is not limited to the power generation and sales plan submitted to the OCCTO is referred to as a "power generation plan and / or power sales plan". Also, when there is no need to distinguish between the power generation and sales plan and the power generation plan and / or power sales plan, it may simply be referred to as a "plan".

[0040] [1. Overall Configuration] FIG. 1 shows an embodiment of the overall configuration of the present plan creation system. The present plan creation system in FIG. 1 is connected so that a management server 1 managed by a system administrator, a user utilization server 2 used by users of the present plan creation system, and an external institution server 3 can communicate with each other via a network NW. The form of the network NW is not particularly limited, and for example, Bluetooth (registered trademark), Wi-Fi, LAN (Local Area Network), the Internet, etc. can be adopted. The user utilization server 2 is connected to user terminals such as smartphones, tablet computers, and desktop computers. The user connects to the network NW by operating the user terminal and performs data communication with other devices. The external institution server 3 is a server other than the management server 1 and the user utilization server 2, and is a server that exchanges information with the present plan creation system S, and includes servers owned by the OCCTO and JPEX, and servers that manage power generation facilities.

[0041] [1.1 Hardware Configuration of the Present Plan Creation System] Next, the hardware configuration of this plan creation system will be described. FIG. 2 shows the hardware configuration in one embodiment of this plan creation system. As shown in FIG. 2, this plan creation system includes a control unit 210, an input device 220, a storage device 230, a display device 240, a communication device 250, and an output device 260, which are connected via a system bus 270.

[0042] In FIG. 2, the control unit 210 is a processor such as a CPU, for example, and executes a program in which the processing in this plan creation system is described. The input device 220 is composed of, for example, a keyboard and a mouse, and is used by the administrator of this plan creation system or the like to input various kinds of information. The storage device 230 includes various memories such as RAM (Random Access Memory) and ROM (Read Only Memory), and storage devices such as hard disks and SSDs, and stores the application programs to be executed by the control unit 210, the necessary data obtained in the process of processing by the control unit 210, the information acquired from external institutions, etc. Also, the storage device 230 may be used as a temporary storage area during program execution. The display device 240 is composed of a display, an LCD (Liquid Crystal Display Panel), etc., and displays various screens for the administrator. The communication device 250 is a receiver and a transmitter that performs communication processing via a network NW with users and external institutions. The output device 260 is a printer or the like. Note that FIG. 2 is an example, and the hardware configuration of this plan creation system is not limited to the example in FIG. 2.

[0043] An operation example will be described until the application program for executing the functions of the plan creation system becomes executable. In the plan creation system having the above-described configuration, for example, from a CD-ROM or a DVD-ROM set in a CD (Compact Disc)-ROM drive or a DVD (Digital Versatile Disc)-ROM drive (not shown), an application program for executing the functions of the plan creation system is downloaded, or is downloaded via the communication device 250 by a transmission medium such as the Internet, stored in the storage device 230, and then installed. When executing the application program, the program stored in the storage device 230 is started. In this state, the control unit 210 executes the functions as the plan creation system according to the application program started from the storage device 230. Also, the application program for executing the functions of the plan creation system does not necessarily have to be stored in the storage device 230 in the management server 1. For example, it may be stored in a server other than the management server and may be executed by accessing it via a network from the management server 3 or the user use server 2. When executing the functions of the plan creation system via the network, it may be configured to request the user to input a user ID, a password, etc.

[0044] The functions of the plan creation system will be described. FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram showing a functional configuration in an embodiment of the plan creation system and the relationship of information exchange with external organizations.

[0045] [1.2 Information Exchange with External Organizations, etc.] The plan creation system performs data communication via the network NW with external organizations including power generation businesses, power generation contractors, aggregators, JPEX, retail electricity businesses, information providers, OCCTO, and users of the plan creation system in order to create a power generation and sales plan. The data communication is performed by the communication device 250.

[0046] [1.2.1 Information Exchange with Power Generation Facilities, etc.] This plan creation system acquires information on the power generation amount for each time period, the presence or absence of output suppression, the presence or absence of equipment failures, and the operating status from the power generation facilities owned by power generation companies and the power generation BG. Here, the power generation company in this specification refers to a company that owns power generation facilities such as solar power generation, wind power generation, hydroelectric power generation, geothermal power generation, and biomass power generation and conducts power generation business. The power generation BG is a group of power generation companies (balancing group) that perform imbalance settlement regarding power transactions. Also, when the power generation facility has a storage battery, information on the power charged in the storage battery and the operating status is also acquired. Information from the power generation facility is acquired from the external agency server 3 that manages the power generation facility by the acquisition unit 2104 described later. The information acquired by this plan creation system from the power generation facility is once stored in the power generation facility information DB 402 described later by the acquisition unit 2104 and is used when creating a power generation plan, etc.

[0047] Note that the power generation facility and the storage battery may be installed, for example, within the premises of a specific customer based on a PPA (Power Purchase Agreement). In such a case, this plan creation system, based on the time-series information detected by the sensor installed in the power generation facility, can acquire information related to power generation such as the power generation amount, power generation time, and power generation efficiency of the power generation facility, and the temperature state of the storage battery including the temperature of each cell unit, SOC (State of Charge), number of elapsed cycles, degree of deterioration, and SOH (State of Health) and other information related to the state of the storage battery.

[0048] [1.2.2 Information Exchange with Power Generation Contractors, etc.] The power generation sales plan is submitted by power generation contractors, etc. to the OCCTO.

[0049] Power generation contractors etc. must submit to OCCTO a power generation and sales plan (next-day plan) created every 48 frames in 30-minute units by noon (12:00) on the day before the power supply and demand date. Also, after submitting the next-day plan, in order to respond to changes in information related to power supply and demand, there may be cases where the submitted plan is changed and a new plan (same-day plan) is submitted by the gate closing time (one hour before actual supply and demand). Power generation contractors etc. use their own user terminals and operate this plan creation system using data communication via network NW to create the plan. Note that the timing of plan creation and the number of frames per day are examples and are not limited to these.

[0050] [1.2.3 Information exchange with electricity trading partners] This plan creation system exchanges information with electricity trading partners. Electricity trading partners include JPEX, the supply and demand adjustment market, the capacity market, retail electricity suppliers that supply electricity based on relative contracts, and general power transmission and distribution companies associated with imbalance settlement. Information exchange with electricity trading partners, such as transaction price information in each market and electricity trading-related information with retail electricity suppliers, is carried out through data communication via network NW between each external agency server 3 that manages the electricity trading partner and the communication device 250. In particular, information related to the electricity trading price exchanged with electricity trading partners is acquired by the acquisition unit 2104 described later and stored in the electricity price information DB405 described later.

[0051] [1.2.4 Information exchange with information senders] This power generation plan creation system acquires information necessary for creating a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan from external information providers. The information acquired from these information providers includes weather forecast information acquired from a weather company, accidents and outages of power generation facilities, power use restrictions and planned power outages, and power generation facility information regarding calculation indices used for calculating correction fees, etc., time situation information regarding accidents and the economy such as increases in oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices and the outbreak of war, power market information regarding imbalance tariff unit prices, imbalance amounts, trading prices in the spot market and the forward market, etc., wide-area reserve rate information announced by OCCTO, etc. However, as long as it is information that can affect the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan, it is not limited to these. This power generation plan creation system acquires information from these information providers through data communication via the network NW by the acquisition unit 2104, and stores information related to power generation facilities in the power generation facility information DB402 described later, information related to power prices and imbalance tariffs in the power price information DB405, and other time situation information in the time situation information DB403.

[0052] [1.2.5 Submission of Plan to OCCTO] Power generation contractors, etc. submit a power generation sales plan to OCCTO. Therefore, the user performs submission of the power generation sales plan and exchange of other information through data communication via the network NW between the management server 1 of this power generation plan creation system and the external agency server 3 held by OCCTO. Submission of the power generation sales plan is performed by the plan control unit 2114 described later using data communication via the network NW.

[0053] [2. Structure of Management Server] A series of processes associated with the creation of a plan by this power generation plan creation system is realized by executing application programs corresponding to each function in the control unit 210 based on data stored in a plurality of databases (DBs) in the storage device 230.

[0054] [2.1 Storage Device] Figure 4 is a diagram showing the functions of the DBs included in the storage device 230. The memory device 230 is provided with a weather information DB 401, a power generation facility information DB 402, a time situation information DB 403, a power system information DB 404, a power price information DB 405, a user information DB 406, a trading transaction information DB 407, and a plan history DB 408.

[0055] The weather information DB 401 stores weather forecast data and past weather data (hereinafter referred to as weather information) obtained from, for example, a weather information disclosure institution. The weather information is such that the latest weather forecast data predicted at least until the bid closing time of the power transaction is obtained, and the weather information DB 401 stores weather forecasts and performance data for each specific time zone in a specific region. The types of weather information include weather, temperature, humidity, cloud cover, wind direction, wind speed, solar radiation amount, rainfall amount, etc. for each specific region and time zone. The weather information is obtained by the acquisition unit 2104 via the network NW and stored in the weather information DB 401.

[0056] The power generation facility information DB 402 stores power generation amount performance data and power generation capacity for each specific time zone in a specific power generation facility owned by a power generation company and a power generation BG. Specifically, for example, DC power generation amount, AC power generation amount, presence or absence of output suppression, presence or absence of failures of various devices and operation status information, etc., in addition to the installation location of the power generation facility, address of the location, latitude, longitude, altitude, etc., information such as the DC capacity, AC capacity, number of PCSs (Power Conditioning System), PCS manufacturer, operation start time, etc. of the power generation facility. The information held by the power generation facility is obtained by the acquisition unit 2104 via the network NW and stored in the power generation facility information DB 402.

[0057] The power generation facility information DB402 stores the power generation prediction information calculated by the power generation amount first prediction unit 2101 and the power generation amount second prediction unit 2102 described later, as well as the power generation prediction information created by an institution outside the present plan creation system. That is, in the power generation facility information DB402, the power generation prediction value and the power generation actual value for a specific time zone in a specific time zone of a specific power generation facility are stored as a set. Further, the power generation prediction information includes information such as the power generation prediction value, the maximum and minimum values of the assumed prediction error range, and the prediction error from the actual power generation actual value. The power generation prediction information created by an external institution is acquired by the acquisition unit 2104 via the network NW and stored in the power generation facility information DB402. The power generation prediction information calculated by the power generation amount first prediction unit 2101 and the power generation amount second prediction unit 2102 is stored in the power generation facility information DB402 by the power generation amount first prediction unit 2101 and the power generation amount second prediction unit 2102. Note that the power generation facility information DB402 also stores the power generation prediction values calculated for each of a plurality of power generation prediction types described later.

[0058] The time situation information DB403 stores time situation information regarding accidents and the economy such as the rise in the prices of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) and the outbreak of war for each specific date and time and time zone. These time situation information are acquired by the acquisition unit 2104 from a time situation information provider via the network NW and stored in the time situation information DB403.

[0059] The power grid information DB404 stores the wide-area reserve rate information announced by OCCTO. That is, the value of the wide-area reserve rate in a specific time zone in the area to which the power generation facility belongs is acquired by the acquisition unit 2104 from the OCCTO's website and stored in the power grid information DB404. The wide-area reserve rate information is data indicating the tightness information of electric power, and the past wide-area reserve rate information is used as teacher data for the learned models used in the power generation amount first prediction unit 2101 and the power generation amount second prediction unit 2102, and the future wide-area reserve rate information is used as input data for calculating the prediction of the electricity price and used in the creation of the power generation sales plan.

[0060] The power price information DB405 stores the actual and predicted imbalance charge values for each time period on a specific day, the actual and predicted power trading prices (contract prices) in the spot market and forward market on JPEX, or various power trading markets such as the demand-supply adjustment market and capacity market. In addition, the power price information DB405 stores the predicted values of surplus and deficit imbalance amounts. Here, the actual imbalance charge value is obtained from the OCCTO's website by the acquisition unit 2104 and stored in the power price information DB405. The actual power trading prices in the spot market and forward market are obtained from the JPEX's website by the acquisition unit 2104 and stored in the power price information DB405. The predicted imbalance charge value is stored in the power price information DB405 by the imbalance charge prediction unit 2108 or the imbalance charge predicted value acquisition unit 2109 described later. The predicted power trading price is stored in the power price information DB405 by the power trading price prediction unit 2106 or the power trading price predicted value acquisition unit 2107.

[0061] The user information DB406 stores the basic information of the user (including the user's name, login information (account) to this power generation plan creation system, information on the power generation facilities under its jurisdiction, information on the balancing group, etc., and also includes the selection of the power generation amount prediction type, the plan creation schedule, the change conditions for changing the power generation and sales plan, the change count limit, etc. to be described later), and the transaction cost information related to the power of each user. The transaction cost information includes, for example, the transaction costs incurred by the user in power trading, the purchase price of the storage battery, the land use fee, the consignment cost for transmitting power onto the grid, etc. In addition, the condition setting values for creating and changing the power generation and sales plan submitted to OCCTO in the plan creation unit 2105 to be described later are also stored. Here, the basic information and transaction cost information of each user are stored in the user information DB406 by the input of the administrator or user of this power generation plan creation system. The condition setting values used in plan creation are stored in the plan history DB408 together with the plan data by the plan control unit 2114 to be described later.

[0062] The trading transaction information DB407 stores the user's electricity trading transaction performance data for a specific time period. Specifically, for example, it includes the user's transaction performance in various electricity trading markets such as the spot market, the forward market, the demand-supply adjustment market, and the capacity market, the electricity trading price per unit, the total sales volume, the total trading amount, the user's payment amount and sales amount associated with the occurrence of imbalance, the sales performance to the retail electricity business operator, and the user's profit calculated from these. These electricity trading transaction performance data are stored in the trading transaction information DB407 by the trading transaction processing unit 2115 described later.

[0063] The planned history DB408 stores the planned data created by this power planning system. The plan creation unit 2105 described later creates a plan and stores all the plans in the planned history DB408. The stored planned data, together with the past electricity trading transaction performance data, is used as teacher data for future plan creation. Note that the planned history DB408 also stores the power generation prediction type used for the plan creation described later, the changed power generation planned value, and the data related to the changed plan.

[0064] [2.2 Plan Creation Function] Next, the functional configuration of the control unit 210 in this plan creation system will be described with reference to FIG. 3. In this plan creation system, the control unit 210 starts the application program stored in the storage device 230 and uses the data stored in each of the above-mentioned DBs in the storage device 230 to realize a predetermined function. The functions executed in the control unit 210 include a first power generation prediction unit 2101, a second power generation prediction unit 2102, a type selection unit 2103, an acquisition unit 2104, a plan creation unit 2105, an electricity trading price prediction unit 2106, an electricity trading price prediction value acquisition unit 2107, an imbalance charge prediction unit 2108, an imbalance charge prediction value acquisition unit 2109, a determination control unit 2110, a change input unit 2111, a plan change unit 2112, an activation selection unit 2113, a plan control unit 2114, and a trading transaction processing unit 2115.

[0065] The power generation amount first prediction unit 2101 calculates a future power generation amount prediction value based on past power generation amount prediction data and corresponding past actual power generation amount data. The past actual power generation amount data is data acquired from the power generation facility and uses the data stored in the power generation facility information DB402. The power generation amount prediction value is a prediction value calculated by the power generation amount first prediction unit 2101 in the past and uses the data stored in the power generation facility information DB402. Also, when calculating the power generation amount prediction value, other facility information and the like stored in the power generation facility information DB402 may also be considered. The calculation of the power generation amount prediction value may use the average of the past actual power generation amount data over a predetermined period, or may be calculated by a learned model using the past power generation amount prediction data, the actual power generation amount data, and additional information such as past power generation facility information as teacher data. The power generation amount prediction value calculated by the power generation amount first prediction unit 2101 is stored in the power generation facility information DB402. The calculated power generation amount prediction value may be used as teacher data for calculating the future power generation amount prediction value. Note that the power generation amount first prediction unit 2101 is mainly used for calculating the prediction value of the power generation amount in power generation facilities (such as geothermal and biomass power generation) that are not easily affected by short-term weather variations.

[0066] The power generation amount second prediction unit 2102 calculates a future power generation amount prediction value based on past power generation amount prediction data, corresponding past actual power generation amount data, past weather information, and past power generation facility information. The past actual power generation amount data is data acquired from the power generation facility and uses the data stored in the power generation facility information DB402. The past power generation amount prediction data is a prediction value calculated by the power generation amount second prediction unit 2102 in the past and uses the data stored in the power generation facility information DB402. The calculation of the power generation amount prediction value may use the average of the past actual power generation amount data over a predetermined period, or may be calculated by a learned model using the past power generation amount prediction data, the actual power generation amount data, the power generation facility information, the weather information, the time situation information, and other additional information as teacher data. The calculated power generation amount prediction value may be used as teacher data for calculating the future power generation amount prediction value. Note that the power generation amount second prediction unit 2102 is mainly used for calculating the prediction value of the power generation amount in power generation facilities (such as solar power and wind power generation) whose power generation amount is easily affected by weather variations.

[0067] For example, in the case of solar power generation, the power generation amount prediction unit 2102 can predict the power generation amount and power generation time of the solar power generation facility by using, for example, the solar radiation amount, sunshine duration, and power generation efficiency of the solar power generation facility based on the weather forecast information of the area where the solar power generation facility is installed. Since the power generation efficiency of the solar power generation facility also varies depending on factors such as the aging deterioration, dirt, type of solar panel, and installation angle of the solar panel used, it may be calculated by a predetermined arithmetic formula weighted for each of those factors. Alternatively, it may be calculated using a learned model that has learned the relationship between the factors and the past power generation amount actual data as teacher data. In the case of wind power generation, the weather information used for prediction is wind speed, wind direction, etc., and in the case of hydropower generation, it is rainfall, etc. Although they are different in this respect, the others are the same, so the explanation is omitted. The calculated power generation amount prediction value is stored in the power generation facility information DB402.

[0068] The power generation amount first prediction unit 2101 and the power generation amount second prediction unit 2102 calculate a power generation amount prediction width defined by a power generation amount prediction minimum value and a power generation amount prediction maximum value together with the power generation amount prediction value. The power generation amount prediction width refers to, for example, an interval that can be trusted as a prediction. Information on the power generation amount prediction width defined by the power generation amount prediction minimum value and the power generation amount prediction maximum value calculated by the power generation amount first prediction unit 2101 and the power generation amount second prediction unit 2102 is stored in the power generation facility information DB402 together with the power generation amount prediction value.

[0069] The power generation amount first prediction unit 2101 and the power generation amount second prediction unit 2102 can repeatedly calculate the prediction value for a specific time at intervals set in advance by the user separately from the planning schedule until the gate closing time (one hour before the actual demand and supply). This is because the power generation amount prediction value has a utilization value as teacher data, and the power generation amount prediction value may vary greatly due to changes in weather and time situation information, so it can also be used as a guideline for calculating the power generation prediction width.

[0070] The content of the data of the power generation amount prediction value by the power generation amount first prediction unit 2101 and / or the power generation amount second prediction unit 2102 will be described.

[0071] Figs. 5A to 5C are excerpts of the data table stored in the power generation facility information DB 402, showing the predicted power generation amount and the actual power generation amount on a specific day for the photovoltaic power generation facility 1-1. Fig. 5A shows frames 1 to 17, Fig. 5B shows frames 18 to 37, and Fig. 5C shows frames 38 to 48. In the data table, together with the predicted power generation amount by the first power generation prediction unit 2101 or the second power generation prediction unit 2102, the minimum predicted power generation amount, and the maximum predicted power generation amount, the predicted power generation amount for each predicted power generation type (predicted types 1 to 4) corresponding to a preset risk tolerance from the predicted power generation amount is calculated and stored together with the actual power generation amount. Further, the data table may include the type of the prediction value setting means (AI use in Figs. 5A to 5C). Each value is divided into 48 frames per day at 30-minute intervals, and a data table is created for each power generation facility. The data in the data table is used when the planning creation unit 2105 described later creates a plan.

[0072] The risk tolerance will be described. When creating a power generation plan, the user needs to calculate a predicted power generation amount that takes into account the risk tolerance of surplus and deficit imbalances, rather than the predicted power generation amount itself calculated by the first power generation prediction unit 2101 and / or the second power generation prediction unit 2102, and use that numerical value to determine the bidding conditions. Therefore, when creating a power generation plan, it is preferable to be able to specify the predicted power generation type corresponding to the risk tolerance of surplus and deficit imbalances and determine the bidding policy using the calculated predicted power generation amount.

[0073] The selected predicted power generation type preferably includes a value calculated based on the predicted power generation amount, the maximum value of the predicted power generation amount, the minimum value of the predicted power generation amount, a value calculated based on the average value of the predicted power generation amount over a predetermined period, and a value calculated based on the average value of part or all of the past actual power generation data. For example, it includes "minimize the deficit imbalance risk (use the minimum value of the predicted power generation amount)", "reduce the deficit imbalance risk (use the intermediate value between the predicted power generation amount and the minimum value of the predicted power generation amount)", "minimize the risks of surplus and deficit imbalances (use the predicted power generation amount)", and "maximize the bidding amount (use the intermediate value between the maximum value of the predicted power generation amount and the predicted power generation amount)".

[0074] Figure 6 is a graph of the predicted power generation values of power generation prediction types 1 to 4 corresponding to risk tolerances 1 to 4. Such a graph may also be in a specification to be displayed on the screen when the user creates a power generation plan. Also, it may be in a specification to graph the past power generation prediction data stored in the power generation facility information DB 402 together with the past actual power generation data and display it on the screen according to the user's request. Displaying information using past data at the time of plan creation is realized by the plan creation unit 2105 described later acquiring the information stored in each DB and converting it into data such as a graph. By graphing the predicted power generation values for each such power generation prediction type and displaying them on the user terminal, it becomes possible for the user to appropriately create a plan considering the risks of surplus and deficit imbalances.

[0075] The type selection unit 2103 selects a specific power generation prediction type from among a plurality of power generation prediction types corresponding to the above-described risk tolerances based on the user's request. The predicted power generation values calculated for each of the plurality of power generation prediction types are stored in the power generation facility information DB 402. The selection of the power generation prediction type can be set in advance by the user, and the setting content is stored in the user information DB 406 by the type selection unit 2103. Also, the power generation prediction type used by the user to create a plan is stored in the plan history DB 408 together with the created plan.

[0076] The acquisition unit 2104 acquires various information from institutions outside the management server 1 of this plan creation system and stores it in each DB in the storage device 230. The information acquired by the acquisition unit 2104 includes weather information, power generation facility information, time situation information, wide-area reserve rate information, and power trading price information. When external institutions calculate predicted values of power trading prices and imbalance charges, those information are acquired and stored in each DB in the storage device 230.

[0077] In this plan creation system, when an institution outside the plan creation system calculates the predicted power generation value, the acquisition unit 2104 acquires the predicted power generation value from those institutions, and the plan creation unit 2105 described later creates a plan using the acquired predicted value.

[0078] Based on the power generation prediction value corresponding to the power generation prediction type selected by the user, the planning creation unit 2105 automatically creates a plan according to the planning creation and submission rules preset by the user. FIG. 7 is a block diagram showing the functions of the planning creation unit 2105. The planning creation unit 2105 includes a data table creation means 2105a for creating a data table that is the basis of the plan, a display data creation means 2105b for converting the created data table into display data to be displayed on the user terminal, and an output data creation means 2105c for converting the power generation sales plan into each data including submission data to be submitted to OCCTO and data to be used for bidding in JPEX.

[0079] In addition, the display data creation means 2105b can edit the data stored in each DB in the storage device 230 and the information obtained from external institutions in addition to the data table created by the data table creation means 2105a, and create new display data according to the user's request. For example, a schedule table data for managing the submission schedule of the power generation sales plan to OCCTO can be created, and the convenience in the creation, browsing, and modification of the user's plan can be improved. As the schedule table data to OCCTO, for example, the power generation sales plan is divided and displayed at preset dates and times, the possibility of changing the power generation sales plan is distinguished and displayed based on at least the gate close time, and for the divided and displayed power generation sales plan, it is displayed which of the plan change unit 2112 and the change input unit 2111 is enabled, etc. Although it includes layouts such as these, it is not limited to these.

[0080] Other display data that can be created by the display data creation means 2105b includes, for example, a browsing page with one or more links selected from the group consisting of the operating status of power generation facilities, weather prediction data, power trading prices in the spot market or time - ahead market, imbalance charge unit prices, and information on wide - area reserve rates, and data for displaying information obtained by web scraping technology, etc., but is not limited to these.

[0081] The output data creation means 2105c converts the data table created by the data table creation means 2105a into a format that can be used for submitting a plan to OCCTO, bidding in various power trading markets such as JPEX, supply-demand adjustment markets, capacity markets, or for plan announcements to retail electricity providers, etc.

[0082] Figures 8A - F are an example of the data table of the power generation plan created by the plan creation unit 2105 (data table creation means 2105a). Figure 8A shows frames 1 - 13 of power generation facility 1 - 1, Figure 8B shows frames 14 - 33, Figure 8C shows frames 34 - 48, Figure 8D shows frames 1 - 13 of power generation facility 1 - 2, Figure 8E shows frames 14 - 33, and Figure 8F shows frames 34 - 48 of power generation facility 1 - 2, respectively. In the example of Figures 8A - F, it is the power generation plan at 9:00 am on September 30, which is the day before the actual supply - demand of October 1, 2024 for Electric Company A, and is part of the next - day plan to be submitted to OCTTO by noon (12:00) on September 30. Electric Company A operates Power Generation BG1 which has two solar power generation facilities (1 - 1 and 1 - 2). In the power generation plan, the power generation amount is described in 30 - minute frame units, and the actual power generation plan value (the power generation amount prediction value calculated based on the selected power generation amount prediction type), the power generation amount prediction value calculated by the power generation amount second prediction unit 2102, and the average of the power generation amount actual values in the previous 3 - 1 weeks are listed. In the upper - right part of the data table, as initial settings, the type of manual or automatic update, the power generation amount prediction type, and the risk tolerance are specified. Here, when the risk tolerance is selected, the corresponding power generation amount prediction type may be automatically input, or when the power generation amount prediction type is selected first, the corresponding risk tolerance may be automatically input. The prediction value setting in Figures 8A - F indicates using a learned model (AI) for power generation amount prediction or using the average value for a predetermined period, etc., and these types of options can be arbitrarily set by the user. The data table created by the data table creation means 2105a is converted and used by the display data creation means 2105b as described above based on the application. In particular, it is preferable that the user terminal display screen created by the display data creation means 2105b is converted into data that allows the user to change the plan settings and manually change the plan values on the screen of the user terminal.

[0083] Note that, as described above, the power generation amount first prediction unit 2101 and the second prediction unit 2102 continue to calculate the predicted power generation amount at preset intervals until the gate closing time, and the latest predicted power generation amount continues to be added to the power generation facility information DB 402. Therefore, the plan creation unit 2105 acquires the latest predicted power generation amount according to the plan creation schedule, and the data table creation means 2105a creates a new data table and stores it in the plan history DB 408. The creation of a new data table is performed at least according to the plan creation schedule preset by the user, but is not limited thereto. In particular, when an instruction to change the plan is issued from the determination control unit 2110 based on reasons such as market fluctuations, the plan creation unit 2105 may create a new data table separately from the original submission scheduled date and time.

[0084] Figures 9A to 9C are examples of data tables of sales plans created based on the power generation plans of Figures 8A to 8F. Figure 9A shows frames 1 to 17, Figure 9B shows frames 18 to 37, and Figure 9C shows frames 38 to 48. In the data tables of Figures 9A to 9C, in addition to the power generation BG1 having the power generation facilities 1-1 and 1-2 of Figures 8A to 8F, a power generation plan including the power generation facilities 2-1 and 2-2 is also shown. In the sales plans of Figures 9A to 9C, the total amount of power generation of the power generation BG1 and BG2 is allocated to the preset sales destinations 1 and 2. However, if there is a discharge from the storage battery held as the power to be sold or a purchase from a retail electricity business operator, those may be added to the data table. The sales destinations of the power are listed by initial setting, and the number of sales destinations to be added to the data table and the details of the power allocation to each sales destination can also be preset. In the example of Figures 9A to 9C, for example, it is assumed that sales destination 1 is JPEX and sales destination 2 is a fixed amount sale based on a relative contract with a retail electricity business operator. In addition, supply as adjustment power after gate closing and charging to the owned energy storage facility can also be added to the sales destinations. This sales plan is also part of the next day's plan to be submitted to OCTTO by noon (12:00) on September 30, which is the day before the actual supply and demand.

[0085] The electricity trading price prediction unit 2106 calculates the predicted future electricity trading price in the electricity trading market and stores it in the electricity price information DB405. Also, when multiple trading markets such as the spot market, forward market, supply-demand adjustment market, and capacity market need to be considered, the electricity trading price prediction unit 2106 calculates the predicted trading price for each trading market. The method for predicting the electricity trading price is not particularly limited. For example, the electricity trading price in the market may be predicted based on past predicted values and actual values of electricity trading prices, weather information, calendar information, time situation information, wide-area reserve rate information of power system utilization, etc. in the target area. Or it may be calculated using a trained model with these information and the data of past actual electricity trading price values as teacher data. Note that the electricity trading market may include the Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX), supply-demand adjustment market, capacity market, etc.

[0086] The electricity trading price predicted value acquisition unit 2107 acquires the predicted future electricity trading price in the electricity trading market from an institution outside this plan creation system and stores it in the electricity price information DB405. Note that either the electricity trading price prediction unit 2106 or the electricity trading price predicted value acquisition unit 2107 may be included in this plan creation system, or they may coexist.

[0087] The imbalance charge prediction unit 2108 calculates the predicted future surplus and deficit imbalance amounts and the predicted imbalance charge value, and stores it in the electricity price information DB405. The method for predicting the imbalance charge is not particularly limited. For example, the imbalance charge may be predicted based on past actual information, weather information, calendar information, time situation information, wide-area reserve rate information of power system utilization, etc. in the target area. Or it may be calculated using a trained model that has learned the relationship between these information and past actual imbalance charge values as teacher data.

[0088] The imbalance charge prediction value acquisition unit 2109 acquires future predicted values of imbalance charges from an institution outside the present plan creation system and stores them in the power price information DB 405. Note that either one of the imbalance charge prediction unit 2108 and the imbalance charge prediction value acquisition unit 2109 may be included in the present plan creation system, or they may coexist.

[0089] [2.3 Plan change function] The user can change the created plan according to the weather information, predicted values of electricity buying and selling prices, predicted values of imbalance charges, etc. that change over time. Hereinafter, the plan change function will be described by taking an example of a power generation and sales plan submitted to OCCTO.

[0090] The determination control unit 2110 determines whether to change a power generation and sales plan or the like according to a plan creation schedule previously determined by the user or separately from the schedule, and also determines whether to perform the plan change by either the plan change unit 2112 or the change input unit 2111 described below.

[0091] The plan creation unit 2105 automatically creates a power generation and sales plan according to a plan creation schedule previously determined by the user. However, in some cases, a situation may occur where, if the created sales plan is executed as it is, it may have a great impact on the user's profit, such as unexpected supply and demand fluctuations. In such a case, a new plan can be created by changing the power generation and sales plan or the like separately from the plan creation date and time previously determined by the user.

[0092] Examples that can significantly affect the user's revenue include, but are not limited to: i) when the fluctuation range of the predicted power generation amount calculated or obtained after the creation of the power generation plan and / or power sales plan with respect to the predicted power generation amount obtained at the time of creating the power generation plan or power sales plan exceeds a preset threshold; ii) when the change in the operating status of the power generation facility that occurred after the creation of the power generation plan and / or power sales plan corresponds to a predefined change; iii) when the change in the information on the wide-area reserve rate corresponds to a predefined change; iv) when the fluctuation range of the electricity trading price in the market with respect to the predicted electricity trading price in the market calculated or obtained at the time of creating the power generation plan and / or power sales plan exceeds a preset threshold.

[0093] The determination control unit 2110 determines whether further plan changes are necessary and whether the plan changes are automatic or manual at the time when plan changes are possible until the gate closing time. Here, the change conditions that form the basis for the determination of the determination control unit 2110 are the occurrences of the situations exemplified above, but they can be appropriately set based on the circumstances of individual users. The change conditions for changing the power generation sales plan are stored in the user information DB 406, and the determination control unit 2110 determines whether plan changes are necessary based on the change conditions stored in the user information DB 406.

[0094] When the determination control unit 2110 determines that a plan change is necessary, it outputs plan change instruction information to the activation selection unit 2113. The activation selection unit 2113 activates the function of either the plan change unit 2112 or the change input unit 2111 based on the plan change instruction from the determination control unit 2110. Also, when the user exceeds a predetermined change count limit, when the gate closing time has elapsed, or when there is an instruction from the determination control unit 2110, etc., it may be specified to stop or deactivate the functions of the plan change unit 2112 and / or the change input unit 2111.

[0095] The plan change unit 2112 acquires a change instruction from the determination control unit 2110, obtains the latest power generation and sales plan created by the plan creation unit 2105, automatically changes the power generation and sales plan to the latest power generation and sales plan, and stores the changed power generation plan value and data related to the change plan in the plan history DB 408. The power generation plan value and sales plan value (the amount of power sold to each sales destination) of the changed plan accumulated in the plan history DB 408 may be used as teacher data when the plan creation unit 2105 creates or changes the power generation and sales plan in the future.

[0096] The change input unit 2111 acquires an instruction from the determination control unit 2110 and accepts a manual input of the power generation and sales plan by the user. The manual input may prohibit or invalidate the change of the plan after the gate closing time, and a limit on the number of changes may also be set. Also, the values once manually changed may be set not to be automatically changed. Regarding these change restrictions, the user can set them in advance, and the setting content is stored in the user information DB 406.

[0097] FIG. 10A and FIG. 10B are flowcharts showing a determination process when changing the power generation and sales plan created in the plan creation schedule, and are examples of the case of "i) when the fluctuation range of the power generation amount prediction value obtained after the creation of the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan with respect to the power generation amount prediction value obtained at the time of creating the power generation plan or the power sales plan exceeds a preset threshold value".

[0098] FIG. 10A is a flowchart at the time of changing the power generation plan. In the example of FIG. 10A, the user sets to switch to manual change when the new power generation amount prediction value fluctuates by a ratio exceeding a predetermined threshold range with respect to the power generation amount prediction value before the change. That is, the plan creation unit 2105 automatically creates a new plan according to the user's plan creation schedule, but the automatic plan creation is aborted by the determination of the determination control unit 2110, the manual plan change input is enabled, and the setting is to request the user to make a change.

[0099] The acquisition unit 2104 acquires weather information, time information, wide-area reserve rate information for power system utilization, power market information, etc. via the network NW (S101). The determination control unit 2110 determines whether the command for which plan change is being considered is before gate closure. If it is after gate closure (S102: No), it determines that plan change is not possible. If the command for which plan change is being considered is before gate closure (S102: Yes), it determines that the power generation plan can be changed (S103). However, at this point, it does not automatically create a changed plan. If the latest power generation prediction value does not exceed a predetermined threshold compared to the power generation prediction value before the change (S104: No), the determination control unit 2110 outputs an automatic change instruction to the activation selection unit 2113, and the activation selection unit 2113 activates the plan change unit 2112. The plan creation unit 2105 creates a new plan, the plan change unit 2112 updates the plan to the new plan, and stores it in the plan history DB 408. If the power generation prediction value based on the newly obtained information exceeds a predetermined threshold compared to the power generation prediction value before the change (S104: Yes), the determination control unit 2110 outputs a manual change instruction to the activation selection unit 2113, and the activation selection unit 2113 activates the change input unit 2111. Also, the determination control unit 2110 may be set to issue an alert requesting the user to manually change the plan.

[0100] In the example of FIG. 10A above, it is set that the manual change switching condition is that the latest power generation prediction value fluctuates beyond a predetermined threshold compared to the immediately previous power generation prediction value. However, the condition is not limited to this example. For example, when the power trading price shows a fluctuation of a certain level or more, when information on the wide-area reserve rate indicating power shortage is obtained, or when time information such as the stop of a power generation facility is obtained, it can be considered that a large-scale market change will occur in the future. The condition for switching from automatic change to manual change can be arbitrarily set by the user. Also, when the latest power generation prediction value is larger than the power generation prediction value obtained at the time of creating the power generation sales plan, the trading price in the time-ahead market and the surplus imbalance charge are compared. When the surplus imbalance charge is high, a condition for the determination control unit 2110 to determine that plan change is unnecessary may be added as a change condition.

[0101] Figure 10B is a flowchart when the sales plan is changed. In Figure 10B, the user sets to switch to manual change when the difference (including the absolute value or the percentage of increase or decrease) between the predicted value of the electricity trading price used for creating the latest sales plan and the actual value of the electricity trading price exceeds a predetermined threshold value. The determination control unit 2110 acquires the latest actual value of the electricity trading price and the predicted value of the electricity trading price used for creating the latest sales plan from the sales transaction information DB 407 (S201). The determination control unit 2110 determines whether the command for considering plan change is before gate closure. If it is after gate closure (S202: No), it determines that plan change is not possible (S203). If the command for considering plan change is before gate closure (S202: Yes), it determines that the sales plan can be changed (S204). However, at this point, it does not automatically create a change plan. It calculates and compares the difference between the predicted value of the electricity trading price used for the latest sales plan and the actual value of the electricity trading price. If the difference between the two exceeds the preset threshold value (S205: Yes), the determination control unit 2110 outputs an instruction to the activation selection unit 2113 to activate the change input unit 2111, and the activation selection unit 2113 activates the change input unit 2111. Also, the determination control unit 2110 may be set to issue an alert to the user requesting manual plan change. If the difference between the predicted value of the electricity trading price used for the latest sales plan and the actual value of the electricity trading price does not exceed the preset threshold value (S205: No), the determination control unit 2110 outputs an instruction to the activation selection unit 2113 to activate the plan change unit 2112, and the activation selection unit 2113 activates the plan change unit 2112. However, when modifying the sales plan, the modification is made to be consistent with the value of the power generation plan.

[0102] [2.4 Plan Execution Function] When a power purchase and sale transaction based on the created power generation and sales plan is conducted, the power sales volume actual value and the power sales revenue actual value are calculated by the purchase and sale transaction processing unit 2115, and are stored in the purchase and sale transaction information DB 407 as power purchase and sale transaction actual data. The power sales volume is obtained by data communication with a power generation company or a general power transmission and distribution company, etc. for the amount of power actually generated and transmitted for each power generation facility. Also, the power sales revenue can be calculated by multiplying the amount of transmitted power by the final transaction price with the customer stored in the purchase and sale transaction information DB 407. Note that the power purchase and sale transaction actual data can include, in addition to various expenses related to power purchase and sale including imbalance charges, revenue data related to revenues such as operating profit and gross profit from power purchase and sale. The calculation of the revenue data refers to the power generation cost information etc. stored in the user information DB 406. The power purchase and sale transaction actual data stored in the purchase and sale transaction information DB 407 may be used as teacher data when the plan creation unit 2105 creates a future power generation and sales plan.

[0103] The plan control unit 2114 performs various processes associated with the plan created by the plan creation unit 2105. For example, in response to a user's request, the created power generation and sales plan is submitted to OCCTO, a retail electricity business operator, etc., in addition to executing bids for buying and selling in JEPX, the supply and demand adjustment market, the capacity market, etc., performing processes based on the input of a plan change by the user, storing those data in the plan history DB 408, and displaying the plan data for display on the user terminal screen. Further, the plan control unit 2114 can perform a simulation on past or future revenues based on the created power generation and sales plan. For example, when changing the average value of past actual performance to a predicted value by a learned model as the predicted power generation amount in past transactions, when changing the risk tolerance of the predicted power generation amount, when changing the customer, etc., when analyzing past transaction results, or when analyzing the transaction prediction when changing each condition in order to confirm the trend of future buying and selling predictions.

Embodiment

[0104] Hereinafter, a specific embodiment of the power plan creation system of the present invention will be described. [Embodiment 1: Creation of Power Generation and Sales Plan] The user sets the conditions for the power generation plan and the sales plan from the initial setting screen. Fig. 11 shows an example of the initial setting screen for the power generation plan. The power generation plan has a schedule to create the first plan at 5:00 PM, two days before the actual demand and supply, and the second plan at 5:00 AM the previous day. The plan creation date and time can be arbitrarily changed from the initial screen.

[0105] As a creation policy, the user can select automatic calculation by a learned model, automatic calculation using past performance, or manual input for calculating the predicted power generation value. When using the learned model, the user can select from four risk tolerance levels similar to the example in Fig. 6, considering the surplus and deficit imbalance risks. In this embodiment, the user selects the system prediction value, which is automatic calculation by the learned model, and sets the risk tolerance level to 3. Note that the content of the risk tolerance level can be specified such that an explanation is displayed by pressing the "Risk Tolerance?" button with the mouse, for example. When using automatic calculation using past performance, the user can specify the weighting of the past performance values to be used.

[0106] The user sets the change policy and change conditions for the submitted plan. In this embodiment, as a change policy, the user selects whether manual plan change is required when an event that may affect the user's profit occurs, even outside the predetermined plan creation schedule. In the example of Fig. 11, the setting is such that manual plan change is to be performed in such a case.

[0107] Next, the user sets the conditions for making changes. In the example of FIG. 11, as the post-submission change policy, the user can select "change frames with a difference greater than the specified difference" or "change according to the specified submission policy". Here, "change frames with a difference greater than the specified difference" means that when the predicted power generation value calculated at regular intervals or the fluctuation of the buying and selling price varies by a certain percentage or more compared to the value in the reference frame, the automatic update of the plan is stopped and the policy is to change it manually. "Change according to the specified submission policy" can be arbitrarily set by the user, for example, when obtaining time situation information such as the stop of the power generation facility. In the present embodiment, the user designates "change frames with a difference greater than the specified difference", and when the power buying and selling price in the previous day's market fluctuates by 6 yen / kWh or more compared to the predicted value of the day before yesterday, an alert is displayed, and the power generation plan is recreated by switching to manual change. The selection items of "power buying and selling price", "the day before yesterday's predicted value", "yesterday's predicted value", "-6", "+6", and "yen / kWh" described in the frame 1101 for setting the change conditions can also be selected from a plurality of pre-registered items by a pull-down method or the like. For example, it is also possible to set and select "the difference between the power generation amount and the predicted value of the day before yesterday and yesterday's predicted value is -15 to +0%".

[0108] Figures 12A to 12F are an example of the display screen of the power generation plan at 13:30 on September 30. Figure 12A shows frames 1 to 14 of power generation facility 1-1, Figure 12B shows frames 15 to 33, Figure 12C shows frames 34 to 48, Figure 12D shows frames 1 to 14 of power generation facility 1-2, Figure 12E shows frames 15 to 33, and Figure 12F shows frames 34 to 48 of power generation facility 1-2. The display screen of the power generation plan is what the display data creation means 2105b processed from the data tables of FIGS. 8A to 8F for display on the user screen. On the screen, in addition to the user name and the plan creation date and time (5 o'clock in Figure 12A), the update method, the setting of the predicted value, and the tolerance at the time of calculating the predicted value can be listed. In Figures 12A to 12F, the power generation plans of power generation facilities 1-1 and 1-2 of BG1 are arranged side by side for display, but the page layout can be arbitrarily set by the user.

[0109] In FIGS. 12B - C and E - F, after the 30th frame, the power generation planned value is marked with a frame 1201, which indicates a part that can be changed before the gate closes. That is, since the gate is closed for frames 1 to 29, it cannot be changed, and the predicted value is not updated. For the changeable frame after the 30th frame, it can be changed manually or automatically until the gate closes. When the user manually changes the value for the changeable frame, the plan control unit 2114 stores the changed plan in the plan history DB 408.

[0110] FIG. 13 is an example of the initial setting screen of the sales plan. Similar to the power generation plan, the sales plan has a schedule to create the first plan at 5:00 p.m. two days before the demand - supply balance and the second plan at 5:00 a.m. the previous day. The plan creation date and time can be arbitrarily changed from the initial screen, similar to the power generation plan. In the example of FIG. 13, it is possible to select the allocation of the sold power to the sales destinations. In the example of FIG. 13, the settings for automatically calculating the sales destinations and the sales volume to each sales destination are checked, but either the sales destination or the sales volume can also be set manually. The sales destinations are those registered in the system in advance, and the information on the power prices of the sales destinations is periodically acquired by the acquisition unit 2104 until the gate closes.

[0111] Similar to FIG. 11 in the example of FIG. 13, the user sets the change policy and change conditions for the submitted plan. In this embodiment, as a change policy, the user selects whether manual plan change is necessary when an event that may affect their own profit occurs, in addition to the pre - determined plan creation schedule. In the example of FIG. 13, the setting is for manual plan change.

[0112] Next, the user sets the conditions for making changes. Similar to the power generation plan in FIG. 11 in the example of FIG. 13, the parameters within frame 1301 can be changed as the change conditions. In the example of FIG. 13, "change frames with a difference greater than the specified value" means that when the fluctuation of the power trading price in each frame varies by a certain percentage or more compared to the value in the reference frame, the automatic update of the plan is stopped and it is the policy to change it manually. "Change by specifying the submission policy" is the same as in FIG. 11, so it is omitted. In this embodiment, similar to the power generation plan, when the actual value of the market power trading price fluctuates by 6 yen / kWh or more compared to the predicted value of the previous day, an alert is displayed and the setting is switched to manual change.

[0113] FIGS. 14A to 14C are an example of a display screen of the sales plan at 11:00 on September 30. FIG. 14A shows frames 1 to 17, FIG. 14B shows frames 18 to 37, and FIG. 14C shows frames 38 to 48. The display screen of the sales plan is what the data table display means 2105b in FIGS. 9A to 9C processes for display on the user screen. On the screen, in addition to the user name and the planned creation date and time (5:00 in FIGS. 12A to 12F), the total amount of power generated from the power generation BG1 and BG held by the user can be referred to as the amount of power when distributing and selling to sales destinations 1 and 2. The display content of the sales plan is not limited to the examples in FIGS. 14A to 14C. For example, it may be in a specification where the power trading price and the user's profit from power sales can be confirmed. Also, in FIGS. 14A to 14C, the power generation plan and the sales plan are displayed simultaneously, but the layout can be arbitrarily set by the user, such as for confirmation of only displaying the sales plan.

[0114] In FIGS. 14A to 14C, frame 1401 is attached to the sales plan value for all frames, which indicates the part that can be changed before the gate closes. For the changeable frame, changes can be made manually or automatically until the gate closes. When the user manually changes the planned value for the changeable frame, the plan control unit 2114 stores the changed planned value in the plan history DB408.

[0115] FIG. 15 is an example of a submission schedule list screen of the power generation and sales plan created by the planning department 2105 (display data creation means 2105b). The user can grasp the content of the power generation and sales plan to be submitted within a predetermined period from this list screen. In the example of FIG. 15, a schedule for one week is shown, and each frame shows the name of the power generation BG, the type of plan, and whether it is automatically or manually updated. However, the display content can be arbitrarily set by the user, and the period of the schedule displayed on the screen can be arbitrarily set in units of one day or one month. Also, in FIG. 15, the plan is classified by BG, but it is also possible for each power generation facility or each group set by the user.

[0116] The schedule list screen of FIG. 15 is linked to a browsing or changing screen of the power generation and sales plan. When each cell 1501 is clicked, it moves to a page that displays the power generation and sales plan as shown in FIGS. 12A to F or FIGS. 14A to C. Also, when the "Automatic" or "Manual" button is pressed, the plan change setting can be switched between automatic and manual.

[0117] [Embodiment 2: Change of Power Generation and Sales Plan] The change of the power generation and sales plan will be described. FIG. 16 is an example of a graph displayed on this planning system for the spot market price of a specific area in JPEX on a specific day. The dashed line is the predicted power trading price prediction value (the day before yesterday prediction value) predicted on the day before the actual supply and demand day, and the solid line is the predicted power trading price prediction value (the previous day prediction value) predicted on the previous day. For example, the day before yesterday prediction value at 17 frames (8:00 am to 8:30 am) was about 10 yen, and the previous day prediction value was about 8 yen. Since the difference between the two is within the threshold value of 6 yen set by the user in advance, the switch to manual change was not performed, and the power generation plan was automatically changed based on this prediction value. Similarly, the plan change was automatically performed in the subsequent frames.

[0118] The change of the sales plan will be described. Figure 17 is a graph showing the spot market price of a specific area in JPEX on another day. The dashed line is the predicted electricity trading price (the day before yesterday's prediction) calculated the day before the actual supply and demand day, and the solid line is the predicted electricity trading price (yesterday's prediction) predicted the previous day. On this day, the weather was predicted to be bad and the solar power generation during the day was not expected to increase. However, according to the latest weather information, an improvement in the weather was reported, and contrary to the initial prediction, there was a possibility that the power supply would be excessive and output suppression would be implemented. For example, the day before yesterday's prediction at 26 frames (from 12:30 am to 1 pm) was about 9 yen, while yesterday's prediction at the same time was about 0.01 yen. Since the difference between the two is within the range of the threshold value of 6 yen set by the user in advance, the determination control unit 2110 issued an alert to the user and gave an instruction for change by manual update.

[0119] Upon receiving the alert, the user newly created a sales plan that takes into account an increase in the sales volume to the retail electricity business operator with a fixed trading price in order to maximize profits, or a power sales time shift using a storage battery.

[0120] As described above, one embodiment of the present invention has been described. However, the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment, and modifications, improvements, etc. within the range that can achieve the object of the present invention are included in the present invention.

[0121] Also, for example, the above-described series of processes can be executed by hardware or by software. In other words, the functional configuration of FIG. 3 is merely an example and is not particularly limited. That is, it is sufficient that the present planning system is provided with a function capable of executing the above-described series of processes as a whole. There is no particular limitation to the example of FIG. 3 as to what functional blocks are used to realize this function. Also, the location of the functional blocks and the database is not particularly limited to FIG. 3 and may be arbitrary. For example, at least a part of the functional blocks and the database required for the execution of various processes may be transferred to a user terminal or the like. Conversely, the functional blocks and the database of the user terminal may be transferred to a server or the like. Also, one functional block may be constituted by hardware alone, software alone, or a combination thereof.

[0122] When a series of processes are to be executed by software, the program constituting the software may be installed in a computer or the like from a network or a recording medium, or a program installed in an external computer may be used by accessing it via the network. The computer may be a computer incorporated in dedicated hardware. Also, the computer may be a computer capable of executing various functions by installing various programs, such as a general-purpose smartphone or personal computer, in addition to a server.

[0123] A recording medium containing such a program is not only constituted by a removable medium (not shown) distributed separately from the apparatus main body to provide the program to a user or the like, but also constituted by a recording medium or the like provided to a user or the like in a state pre-installed in the apparatus main body.

[0124] Note that in this specification, the steps of describing a program recorded on a recording medium include not only processes performed in time series according to the order, but also processes that are not necessarily processed in time series, but are executed in parallel or individually. Also, in this specification, the term "system" means an overall apparatus constituted by a plurality of devices, a plurality of means, or the like.

Description of Reference Numerals

[0125] 1: Management server, 2: User utilization server, 3: External institution server, 210: Control unit, 220: Input device, 230: Memory device, 240: Display device, 250: Communication device, 260: Output device, 401: Weather information DB, 402: Power generation facility information DB, 403: Current situation information DB, 404: Power system information DB, 405: Power price information DB, 406: User information DB, 407: Buying and selling transaction information DB, 408: Plan history DB, 2101: First power generation prediction unit, 2102: Second power generation prediction unit, 2103: Type selection unit, 2104: Acquisition unit, 2105: Plan creation unit, 2105a: Data table creation means, 2105b: Display data creation means, 2105c: Output data creation means, 2106: Power buying and selling price prediction unit, 2107: Power buying and selling price prediction value acquisition unit, 2108: Imbalance charge prediction unit, 2109: Imbalance charge prediction value acquisition unit, 2110: Judgment control unit, 2111: Change input unit, 2112: Plan change unit, 2113: Activation selection unit, 2114: Plan control unit, 2115: Buying and selling transaction processing unit.

Claims

1. A type selection unit that selects one of a plurality of power generation amount prediction types; A plan creation unit that creates a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan based on a predicted power generation amount corresponding to the selected power generation amount prediction type; A determination control unit that determines whether the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan satisfy a predetermined condition, and outputs change instruction information for manually or automatically changing the created power generation plan and / or power sales plan when it is determined that the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan satisfy a predetermined requirement; A power generation plan creation system having a plan change unit that receives the change instruction information and automatically changes the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan.

2. The power generation amount prediction type includes a value calculated based on a predicted power generation amount, an upper limit value of the predicted power generation amount, a lower limit value of the predicted power generation amount, and / or an average value of the predicted power generation amount, or a value calculated based on a past actual power generation amount value, The power generation plan creation system according to claim 1.

3. The power generation plan creation system according to claim 1, wherein the predetermined condition includes one or more selected from the following i) to iv): i) The fluctuation range of the predicted power generation amount obtained after the creation of the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan with respect to the predicted power generation amount calculated or obtained at the time of creation of the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan exceeds a preset threshold value; ii) A change in the operating status of the power generation facility that occurred after the creation of the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan corresponds to a predetermined change; iii) A change in the information on the wide-area reserve rate corresponds to a predetermined change; iv) The fluctuation range of the power purchase and sale price in the market with respect to the predicted power purchase and sale price in the market calculated or obtained at the time of creation of the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan exceeds a preset threshold value.

4. The power generation plan creation system according to claim 1, further comprising an acquisition unit that acquires information including the predicted power generation amount corresponding to the selected power generation amount prediction type, and the plan creation unit creates the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan based on the acquired predicted power generation amount. The power generation plan creation system according to claim 1.

5. The power generation plan creation system according to claim 1, further comprising a first power generation amount prediction unit that calculates a predicted power generation amount using a learned model with past predicted power generation amounts and actual data as teacher data, and the plan creation unit creates the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan based on the predicted power generation amount calculated by the first power generation amount prediction unit. The power generation plan creation system according to claim 1.

6. An acquisition unit that periodically acquires weather forecast data and information including the actual power generation values in a power generation facility; A storage device that stores information including the actual power generation values, power generation capacity, and installation location of the power generation facility; Furthermore, it has a second power generation amount prediction unit that calculates a predicted power generation amount based on at least the latest weather forecast data and information including the actual power generation amount, power generation capacity, and installation location of the power generation facility; The power generation plan creation unit creates the power generation plan and / or power sales plan based on the predicted power generation amount calculated by the second power generation amount prediction unit; The power generation plan creation system according to claim 1.

7. The plan creation unit creates a power generation plan and / or power sales plan based on information including the predicted power generation amount, the predicted future power trading price in the power trading market, and the predicted future imbalance charge; The power generation plan creation system according to claim 1.

8. A power trading price prediction value acquisition unit that acquires a predicted future power trading price; An imbalance charge prediction value acquisition unit that acquires a predicted future imbalance charge; having The plan creation unit creates the power generation plan and / or power sales plan based on information including the predicted power generation amount, the acquired predicted power trading price, and the acquired predicted imbalance charge; The power generation plan creation system according to claim 1.

9. A power trading price prediction unit that calculates a predicted future power trading price; An imbalance charge prediction unit that calculates a predicted future imbalance charge; having The plan creation unit creates a power generation plan or power sales plan based on the predicted power generation amount, the calculated predicted power trading price, and the calculated predicted imbalance charge; The power generation plan creation system according to claim 1.

10. The plan change unit acquires information on the latest power generation plan and / or power sales plan created by the plan creation unit; The power generation plan creation system according to claim 1.

11. Instead of the plan change unit, it has a change input unit that accepts an input for changing the power generation plan and / or power sales plan; The power generation plan creation system according to claim 1.

12. The plan change unit and the change input unit are prohibited from changing the plan after the gate is closed; The power generation plan creation system according to claim 1 or 10.

13. The plan creation unit creates a power generation plan based on the plan creation and submission rules preset for each target power generation facility; The power generation plan creation system according to claim 1.

14. having display data creation means for creating display data based on the power generation plan and / or power sales plan, the display data divides and displays the power generation plan and / or power sales plan for each preset date and time, distinguishes and displays whether the power generation plan and / or power sales plan can be changed based on at least the gate closing time, data that displays which of the plan change section and the change input section is enabled for the divided display of the power generation plan and / or power sales plan, The power plan creation system according to claim 1.

Images