Methods, devices, storage media, and program products for building propagation chains

Abstract

This application discloses a method, device, storage medium, and program product for constructing a transmission chain, relating to the field of data processing technology. This application quantifies the comprehensive transmission risk between patients by comprehensively analyzing patient self-reported contact information, patient historical trajectory information, and disease progression time point information from epidemiological investigations, and constructs a transmission chain based on this. Specifically, considering that patient self-reported information in real-world epidemiological investigation scenarios may not fully and accurately reflect the contact relationships between patients, this application takes into account both explicit self-reported contact and potential spatiotemporal co-occurrence: when a patient reports no contact relationship with others, potential contact information between patients is mined from historical trajectory information, thereby improving the accuracy of transmission chain construction.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This application relates to the field of data processing technology, and in particular to methods, devices, storage media and program products for constructing propagation chains. Background Technology

[0002] Currently, the transmission chain of an epidemic is usually estimated based on the time when patients were infected with the epidemic and the contact history provided by the patients.

[0003] This approach fails to fully uncover potential contact information between patients, leading to the neglect of key transmission pathways and potential contacts, resulting in low accuracy in constructing transmission chains. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The main objective of this application is to provide a method, device, storage medium, and program product for constructing a propagation chain, aiming to solve the technical problem of low accuracy in propagation chain construction.

[0005] To achieve the above objectives, this application proposes a method for constructing a propagation chain, the method comprising:

[0006] Based on the self-reported information of multiple patients in the obtained epidemiological investigation information, it is determined whether there is a self-reported contact relationship between each pair of patients;

[0007] If a self-reported contact relationship exists, the first risk of transmission between the two patients with the self-reported contact relationship is determined based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs;

[0008] If no self-reported contact relationship exists, then based on the historical trajectory information of the multiple patients, a second transmission risk between pairs of patients who do not have a self-reported contact relationship is determined;

[0009] Based on the first transmission risk, the second transmission risk, and the disease course time points of each patient in the epidemiological investigation information, the comprehensive transmission risk among each patient is determined;

[0010] Based on the comprehensive transmission risk among the patients, a transmission chain is constructed.

[0011] In one embodiment, the historical trajectory information includes the activity locations and activity times of each of the patients, and the step of determining the second transmission risk between pairs of patients who do not have a self-reported contact relationship based on the historical trajectory information of the multiple patients includes:

[0012] Based on the location type of the activity location, determine the first influence weight of the location on the second transmission risk;

[0013] Based on the activity location and activity time, a second influence weight of distance on the second transmission risk and a third influence weight of continuous contact time on the second transmission risk are determined.

[0014] Based on the first influence weight, the second influence weight, and the third influence weight, the second transmission risk among the patients is determined.

[0015] In one embodiment, the step of determining the second influence weight of distance on the second transmission risk and the third influence weight of continuous contact time on the second transmission risk based on the activity location and activity time includes:

[0016] Based on the activity location and time, determine the relative distance between each patient at the same time.

[0017] If the relative distance is less than the preset maximum contact distance, then a second influence weight of distance on the second propagation risk is determined by a preset distance decay function, wherein the preset distance decay function is used to characterize the correlation between distance and contact probability;

[0018] If the relative distance is less than the preset maximum contact distance, then based on the activity time, the continuous contact time between each patient is determined, and a third influence weight of the continuous contact time on the second transmission risk is determined by a preset calculation formula, wherein the preset calculation formula is used to characterize the correlation between the continuous contact time and the second transmission risk.

[0019] In one embodiment, the step of determining the first transmission risk between two patients with a self-reported contact relationship based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs further includes:

[0020] Based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs, a fourth influence weight of the contact relationship on the first transmission risk is determined;

[0021] Based on the fourth influence weight and the preset weight parameter, the first transmission risk between the patients is determined, wherein the preset weight parameter is used to characterize the importance of the contact relationship relative to the second transmission risk.

[0022] In one embodiment, the disease progression time points include the diagnosis time, and the step of determining the comprehensive transmission risk among the patients based on the first transmission risk, the second transmission risk, and the disease progression time points of each patient in the epidemiological investigation information includes:

[0023] Based on the diagnosis time of each patient, the fifth influence weight of time on the transmission risk was determined by using a pre-set intergenerational interval model;

[0024] Based on the first transmission risk, the second transmission risk, and the fifth influence weight, the overall transmission risk among the patients is determined.

[0025] In one embodiment, the comprehensive transmission risk is used to characterize the target infection probability between patients, and the step of constructing a transmission chain based on the comprehensive transmission risk between each patient includes:

[0026] Based on the target infection probability, each of the patients is traversed to determine the first patient with the highest probability of infecting each of the patients.

[0027] Based on the first patient, a transmission chain was constructed.

[0028] In one embodiment, the step of constructing a transmission chain based on the first patient includes:

[0029] If there are patients who have infected each other among the first patients, then based on the target transmission probability, the patient with the highest probability of causing the infection among the patients who have infected each other is determined to be the infected person.

[0030] Based on the target infection probability, a second patient with the highest probability of infecting the infected person is identified, wherein the infected person is a patient who has a mutual infection relationship with the infected person;

[0031] A transmission chain was constructed based on the first patient, the infected person, and the second patient.

[0032] In addition, to achieve the above objectives, this application also proposes a propagation chain construction device, the device comprising: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, the computer program being configured to implement the steps of the propagation chain construction method as described above.

[0033] In addition, to achieve the above objectives, this application also proposes a storage medium, which is a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the steps of the propagation chain construction method described above.

[0034] In addition, to achieve the above objectives, this application also provides a computer program product, which includes a computer program that, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the propagation chain construction method described above.

[0035] One or more technical solutions proposed in this application have at least the following technical effects:

[0036] This application, based on self-reported information from multiple patients obtained from epidemiological investigations, determines whether a self-reported contact relationship exists between these patients. If a self-reported contact relationship exists, the first transmission risk between each pair of patients with a self-reported contact relationship is determined based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs. Since patients do not have complete information about themselves, their self-reported information cannot fully reflect their transmission chain. If a patient reports a self-reported contact relationship with others, the first transmission risk between patients with a self-reported contact relationship can be determined based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs. However, even if a patient reports no contact relationship with others... It is still necessary to extract potential contact information between patients based on the historical trajectory information of the multiple patients, so as to determine the second transmission risk between pairs of patients who do not have self-reported contact relationships. Furthermore, by comprehensively considering the impact of the disease course time points of each patient in the self-reported information, historical trajectory information, and epidemiological investigation information on the transmission risk, the comprehensive transmission risk between each patient is determined based on the first transmission risk, the second transmission risk, and the disease course time points. Based on the comprehensive transmission risk between each patient, a transmission chain is constructed, which can fully extract potential contact information between patients and improve the accuracy of transmission chain construction. Attached Figure Description

[0037] The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and form part of this specification, illustrate embodiments consistent with this application and, together with the description, serve to explain the principles of this application.

[0038] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of this application or the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative effort.

[0039] Figure 1 This is a flowchart illustrating an embodiment of the propagation chain construction method of this application.

[0040] Figure 2 This is a flowchart illustrating Embodiment 2 of the propagation chain construction method of this application;

[0041] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of a scenario provided for Embodiment 2 of the propagation chain construction method of this application;

[0042] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the module structure of the propagation chain construction device according to an embodiment of this application;

[0043] Figure 5This is a schematic diagram of the device structure of the hardware operating environment involved in the propagation chain construction method in the embodiments of this application.

[0044] The purpose, features, and advantages of this application will be further explained in conjunction with the embodiments and with reference to the accompanying drawings. Detailed Implementation

[0045] It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the technical solutions of this application and are not intended to limit this application.

[0046] To better understand the technical solution of this application, a detailed description will be provided below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific implementation methods.

[0047] It should be noted that the executing entity in this embodiment can be a computing service device with data processing, network communication, and program execution functions, such as a tablet computer, personal computer, or mobile phone, or an electronic device or propagation chain construction device capable of performing the above functions. The following description uses a propagation chain construction device as an example to illustrate this embodiment and the subsequent embodiments.

[0048] Based on this, embodiments of this application provide a method for constructing a propagation chain, referring to... Figure 1 , Figure 1 This is a flowchart illustrating the first embodiment of the propagation chain construction method of this application.

[0049] In this embodiment, the propagation chain construction method includes steps S10 to S50:

[0050] Step S10: Based on the self-reported information of multiple patients in the obtained epidemiological investigation information, determine whether there is a self-reported contact relationship between the patients;

[0051] It should be noted that the current method of estimating the transmission chain of an epidemic is usually based on the time when patients were infected with the epidemic and the contact history provided by the patients. However, this method cannot fully explore the potential contact information between patients, resulting in the neglect of key transmission paths and potential contacts, and thus the low accuracy of transmission chain construction.

[0052] This embodiment determines whether there is a self-reported contact relationship between multiple patients based on the self-reported information obtained from the epidemiological investigation information. The epidemiological investigation information includes basic patient information and patients' self-reported information regarding the epidemic infection, including health status and medical history, exposure history, social behavior and activity patterns, etc.

[0053] It is understandable that, based on self-reported information, determining whether a self-reported contact relationship exists between patients can be achieved through text analysis and keyword matching. For example, if patient A's self-reported information includes words such as "living together" and "public transportation," then it is determined that a self-reported contact relationship exists between the patients; otherwise, it is determined that no self-reported contact relationship exists between the patients.

[0054] Step S20: If a self-reported contact relationship exists, then based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs, determine the first transmission risk between the two patients with the self-reported contact relationship;

[0055] In epidemiological investigations, if patients report self-reported contact relationships, these relationships are important information for assessing the risk of transmission. Specifically, to quantify the impact of these contact relationships on the risk of transmission, the primary risk of transmission between pairs of patients with self-reported contact relationships can be determined based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs.

[0056] Different contact relationships can correspond to different preset contact types. For example, the contact type can be "living together" or "dining together". Specifically, the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs can be obtained by extracting keywords and analyzing the keywords. For example, keywords such as "shopping together" or "at home".

[0057] Furthermore, different contact types correspond to different transmission risks (for example, the transmission risk ranges from 0 to 1), thereby quantifying the degree of influence of contact relationships on transmission risk.

[0058] Specifically, the specific implementation method for determining the first transmission risk between two patients with a self-reported contact relationship based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs can be:

[0059] Based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs, a fourth influence weight of the contact relationship on the first transmission risk is determined; based on the fourth influence weight and a preset weight parameter, a first transmission risk between each of the patients is determined, wherein the preset weight parameter is used to characterize the importance of the contact relationship relative to the second transmission risk.

[0060] Specifically, different weights can be assigned to different types of contact relationships to quantify their impact on overall transmission risk.

[0061] For example, a higher influence weight can be assigned to close contact relationships (such as "living together" or "dining together"), while a lower influence weight can be assigned to contact relationships without definite contact (such as "being in the same place at the same time"). When there are multiple contact relationships between two patients (e.g., two patients are both colleagues and cohabitants), then the fourth influence weight L... k The value can be the largest weight value among various contact types:

[0062] L k =max{w(contact_type1),w(contact_type2),…};

[0063] Here, w(contact_type) is used to characterize the weight values ​​of different contact types.

[0064] Furthermore, based on the fourth influence weight and the preset weight parameters, the first transmission risk among the patients is determined. Specifically, the first transmission risk can be calculated as P×L. k .

[0065] The preset weight parameter P is used to characterize the importance of the contact relationship relative to the second transmission risk.

[0066] Step S30: If there is no self-reported contact relationship, then based on the historical trajectory information of the multiple patients, determine the second transmission risk between pairs of patients who do not have a self-reported contact relationship;

[0067] In epidemiological investigations, patients may misreport or omit contacts for various reasons, or be unable to provide relevant information about people they have been in contact with but do not know or understand; therefore, it is inaccurate to judge whether there has been contact between patients based solely on their self-reported information.

[0068] Therefore, in cases where there is no self-reported contact relationship, this embodiment needs to further explore potential contact events not provided by the patients themselves based on the historical trajectory information of the multiple patients, thereby supplementing and improving the epidemiological investigation information and providing a reliable basis for more accurate inference of the transmission chain.

[0069] Specifically, based on the historical trajectory information, the spatiotemporal overlap of each patient can be determined, thereby assessing the potential risk of secondary transmission; it can also be based on the historical trajectory information to determine whether there is any overlap in the trajectories of each patient over a period of time.

[0070] It is understandable that the greater the overlap between patients in time and space, the greater the risk of secondary transmission; or, the more the trajectories of patients intersect within a certain period of time, the greater the risk of secondary transmission. This process takes into account factors in both spatial and temporal dimensions, thus forming a more accurate assessment of transmission risk.

[0071] Specifically, the historical trajectory information can be extracted from unstructured epidemiological survey information. Epidemiological survey information usually records the patient's activity trajectory in natural language. Therefore, epidemiological survey information is usually unstructured. In order to facilitate analysis and calculation, the epidemiological survey information can be parsed using text processing technology to obtain the patient's ID, activity time, activity location, and other historical trajectory information. This historical trajectory information is then cleaned and formatted, and organized into a standardized form according to the patient ID, as shown in Table 1 below.

[0072]

[0073] Table 1. Examples of standardized historical trajectory information

[0074] Step S40: Based on the first transmission risk, the second transmission risk, and the disease course time points of each patient in the epidemiological investigation information, determine the comprehensive transmission risk among the patients;

[0075] It should be noted that, since the intergenerational time of virus transmission has a significant impact on the risk of transmission, in addition to considering the contact relationships reported by patients and the overlap of patients in time and space, it is also necessary to consider the impact of intergenerational time on the risk of transmission.

[0076] Specifically, the disease progression time points of each patient in the epidemiological investigation information can be the time of diagnosis, the time of infection, the time of onset, etc. The specific implementation method for determining the comprehensive transmission risk among the patients based on the first transmission risk, the second transmission risk, and the disease progression time points of each patient in the epidemiological investigation information can be:

[0077] Based on the diagnosis time of each patient, a fifth influence weight of time on transmission risk is determined by using a preset intergenerational interval model; based on the first transmission risk, the second transmission risk, and the fifth influence weight, the comprehensive transmission risk among each patient is determined.

[0078] Because there is a generation-interval during the spread of an epidemic, that is, the interval between infection between primary and secondary cases, a pre-defined generation-interval model can be used to measure the impact of transmission time on the probability of infection; based on the difference between the diagnosis times of two patients, the possibility of infection between two patients can be determined.

[0079] Specifically, a normal distribution model can be used to model the generational interval between potential carriers and infected individuals. The pre-defined generational interval model for the normal distribution is set as P(ΔT), where ΔT is the time difference, μ is the mean, and σ is the standard deviation. Assuming the diagnosis or onset time of the carrier is Ti, and the diagnosis or onset time of the infected individual is Tj, the time difference between the carrier and the infected individual is ΔT = Tj - Ti, resulting in the pre-defined generational interval model:

[0080]

[0081] The probability value r1 is used to measure the likelihood of transmission between two patients at a certain time difference. In practical applications, parameters μ and σ can be obtained based on historical studies of the pathological characteristics of the virus and statistical analysis of relevant epidemiological data. Parameters μ and σ reflect the typical time interval and variability of the virus in the host from infection to positive detection. By analyzing historical case data and comprehensively considering the results of relevant pathological studies, parameters μ and σ can be objectively estimated, enabling the normal distribution model to more accurately simulate the time characteristics of virus transmission.

[0082] Therefore, based on the diagnosis time of each patient, the fifth influence weight of time on the transmission risk can be accurately determined by using a pre-set intergenerational interval model.

[0083] The specific implementation method for determining the comprehensive transmission risk among the patients based on the first transmission risk, the second transmission risk, and the fifth influence weight can be as follows:

[0084] In the absence of self-reported contact between two patients, the risk of transmission between them is determined based on the fifth influence weight and the second transmission risk. In the presence of self-reported contact between two patients, the risk of transmission between them is determined based on the first transmission risk and the fifth influence weight, thereby constructing a transmission chain.

[0085] Specifically, for each potential infected person i and infected person j, the overall transmission risk can be represented by the target transmission probability between patients, which can be expressed as:

[0086]

[0087] Furthermore, based on the comprehensive transmission risk between each pair of patients, the transmission chain of all patients, including those with and without self-reported contact relationships, can be calculated.

[0088] Step S50: Construct a transmission chain based on the comprehensive transmission risk among the patients.

[0089] Furthermore, if the overall risk of transmission between two patients is higher, then the possibility of transmission and being transmitted between those two patients is considered to be higher. By going through each patient, the transmission chain between patients can be constructed.

[0090] This embodiment uses self-reported information from multiple patients in the acquired epidemiological investigation information to determine whether there is a self-reported contact relationship among the patients. It obtains the historical trajectory information of patients who do not have a self-reported contact relationship, and then determines the contact relationship between patients who do have a self-reported contact relationship based on this information. Since patients do not have a comprehensive understanding of their own information, their self-reported information cannot fully reflect their transmission chain. If a patient reports a self-reported contact relationship with others, the contact relationship between patients with a self-reported contact relationship can be determined based on this information. However, even if a patient reports no contact relationship with others, it is still necessary to further obtain the historical trajectory information of each patient to mine potential contact information between patients. Specifically, based on the historical trajectory information of the multiple patients, the second transmission risk between pairs of patients who do not have a self-reported contact relationship is determined, and a transmission chain is constructed based on the comprehensive transmission risk among the patients.

[0091] It is understood that this embodiment, based on the self-reported information of multiple patients in the acquired epidemiological investigation information, determines whether there is a self-reported contact relationship among the patients. If a self-reported contact relationship exists, the first transmission risk between the two patients with the self-reported contact relationship is determined based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs. Since patients do not have complete information about themselves, their self-reported information cannot fully reflect their transmission chain. If a patient reports a self-reported contact relationship with others, the first transmission risk between patients with the self-reported contact relationship can be determined based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs. However, even if a patient reports no contact with others... The relationship still needs to be determined based on the historical trajectory information of the multiple patients. Potential contact information between patients needs to be mined from the historical trajectory information to determine the second transmission risk between pairs of patients who do not have self-reported contact relationships. Furthermore, by comprehensively considering the impact of the disease course time points of each patient in the self-reported information, historical trajectory information, and epidemiological investigation information on the transmission risk, the comprehensive transmission risk between each patient is determined based on the first transmission risk, the second transmission risk, and the disease course time points. Based on the comprehensive transmission risk between each patient, a transmission chain is constructed, which can fully mine the potential contact information between patients and improve the accuracy of transmission chain construction.

[0092] Based on the first embodiment of this application, in the second embodiment of this application, the content that is the same as or similar to that in Embodiment 1 above can be referred to the above description, and will not be repeated hereafter. (Refer to...) Figure 2 Based on this, step S30 includes steps S01 to S03:

[0093] Step S01: Based on the location type of the activity location, determine the first influence weight of the location on the second transmission risk;

[0094] It should be noted that the historical trajectory information includes the activity locations and activity times of each patient; this embodiment aims to analyze the locations of each patient in different time periods based on activity locations and activity times, determine the spatiotemporal overlap of each patient, and measure the potential transmission risk.

[0095] Specifically, this embodiment not only considers the overlap of patients in terms of spatial distance and time, but also the possibility of contact in different scenarios.

[0096] Different scenarios correspond to different location types, such as homes, workplaces, and public transportation. For each pair of individuals (e.g., patient A and patient B), this can be represented as shown in Table 2 below. The intensity of human-to-human contact varies in different scenarios, and therefore, the risk of epidemic transmission varies in different scenarios. For example, the risk of epidemic transmission in enclosed places such as homes and public transportation is higher than in open scenarios. Therefore, the first influence weight of the location on the second transmission risk can be determined based on the location type of the activity location.

[0097]

[0098] Table 2. Spatiotemporal overlap information between individuals

[0099] Specifically, the first influence weight corresponding to different location types can be set based on factors such as the population density, ventilation conditions, and contact probability of the activity location. At the same time, a matching first influence weight can be set for pathogens with different characteristics.

[0100] Step S02: Based on the activity location and activity time, determine the second influence weight of distance on the second transmission risk, and the third influence weight of continuous contact time on the second transmission risk;

[0101] Furthermore, since the degree of contact varies with different distances and the duration of contact also varies, based on the activity location and time, the positions of each patient at different time periods can be analyzed to determine the spatiotemporal overlap of each patient, such as... Figure 3 As shown, the second influence weight of distance on the second transmission risk and the third influence weight of continuous contact time on the second transmission risk are obtained.

[0102] Specifically, the specific implementation of determining the second influence weight of distance on the second transmission risk and the third influence weight of continuous contact time on the second transmission risk based on the activity location and activity time can be as follows:

[0103] Based on the activity location and activity time, the relative distance between each patient at the same time is determined; if the relative distance is less than the preset maximum contact distance, a second influence weight of distance on the second transmission risk is determined by a preset distance decay function, wherein the preset distance decay function is used to characterize the correlation between distance and contact probability; if the relative distance is less than the preset maximum contact distance, the continuous contact time between each patient is determined based on the activity time, and a third influence weight of the continuous contact time on the second transmission risk is determined by a preset calculation formula, wherein the preset calculation formula is used to characterize the correlation between the continuous contact time and the second transmission risk.

[0104] To facilitate the determination of the overlap of each patient in time and space, the relative distance d of each patient at the same time can be calculated based on the activity location and activity time, as shown in Table 2.

[0105] It should be noted that the preset maximum contact distance is the range of distances within which contact is considered possible. That is, if the relative distance between two patients is less than the preset maximum contact distance, then contact is considered to be possible between the two patients.

[0106] Therefore, since the probability of contact is higher when the distance is closer and lower when the distance is farther, a preset distance decay function can be used to characterize the relationship between distance and contact probability. By using the preset distance decay function, the second influence weight of distance on the second propagation risk can be determined.

[0107] Specifically, as the relative distance between individuals increases, the probability of contact and the risk of transmission decrease exponentially. To more accurately reflect this phenomenon, the preset distance decay function can be expressed as:

[0108]

[0109] Where d is the relative distance between individuals, and Dmax is the preset maximum contact distance.

[0110] Furthermore, in addition to spatial distance, the duration of continuous contact between individuals also affects the probability of transmission. Specifically, the duration of continuous contact between each patient can be calculated based on the activity time (e.g., patient A and patient B had continuous contact for 254 minutes at school), as shown in Table 2.

[0111] Furthermore, the preset calculation formula can be expressed as:

[0112] w (t) =1-(1-ρ) t ;

[0113] Where t is the duration of continuous contact between individuals, and ρ is the time decay factor parameter, which is used to measure the change in the transmissibility of the virus per unit time.

[0114] Step S03: Based on the first influence weight, the second influence weight, and the third influence weight, determine the second transmission risk among the patients.

[0115] Furthermore, based on the first influence weight, the second influence weight, and the third influence weight, the second transmission risk between each patient can be determined. This second transmission risk is calculated by comprehensively considering the influence of location type, distance, and duration of continuous contact on the transmission risk. It can accurately reflect the transmission risk and frequency between each patient in the spatiotemporal dimension, thereby accurately reflecting the epidemic transmission risk of each patient in the spatiotemporal dimension.

[0116] Specifically, if there are multiple contacts between two patients, the weights of these multiple contacts can be accumulated to accurately reflect the true risk of secondary transmission.

[0117]

[0118] Where f(d) is the second influence weight and w(t) is the third influence weight. This represents the average of the first influence weights for patients A and B.

[0119] It is understandable that if there are two contacts, then the results calculated separately for each contact will be used. The results are summed to obtain the second transmission risk.

[0120] Specifically, in order to facilitate the construction of subsequent transmission chains and to improve the storage order of the second transmission risk, a patient × patient matrix can be initialized to store the second transmission risk between each patient. That is, by analyzing the historical trajectory information of all patients, the analysis can be performed based on the trajectory of each individual, thereby objectively quantifying the second transmission risk of each patient in the spatiotemporal dimension. If the analysis is only based on the trajectory of patients who do not have self-reported contact relationships, it is impossible to obtain the second transmission risk that can be compared with the first transmission risk in the same dimension.

[0121] Meanwhile, to facilitate subsequent propagation chain inference, the matrix can be standardized. First, the non-zero weight values ​​in the matrix are extracted, and then a logarithmic transformation is applied to non-linearly standardize the weights, normalizing their range to between 0 and 1. This standardization process can effectively reduce the influence of extreme values, making the matrix smoother and easier to use.

[0122] In this embodiment, by deeply mining and analyzing the spatiotemporal propagation information hidden in the trajectory, potential transmission chains can be captured more comprehensively, significantly improving the accuracy and completeness of automatic inference. This not only enhances the scientific nature of epidemic transmission path identification but also provides more solid data support for public health decision-making, helping to make more rapid and effective prevention and control strategies in epidemic response.

[0123] The technical solution of this invention significantly improves the efficiency and accuracy of inferring the transmission chain of an epidemic by making efficient use of spatiotemporal co-occurrence information. In particular, when dealing with the spread of a large-scale epidemic, it can quickly and accurately identify key transmission nodes and paths, providing a solid scientific basis for formulating effective epidemic prevention and control measures.

[0124] Based on the first embodiment of this application, in the second embodiment of this application, the content that is the same as or similar to that in the first embodiment described above can be referred to the above description and will not be repeated hereafter. Based on this, the specific implementation method for constructing the transmission chain based on the comprehensive transmission risk among the patients can be:

[0125] Based on the target infection probability, each patient is traversed to determine the first patient with the highest probability of infecting each patient; based on the first patient, a transmission chain is constructed.

[0126] It is understandable that, in the absence of self-reported contact relationships between any two patients, the probability of targeted transmission among the patients can be expressed as W. ij =r1×L uk , where L uk Let i represent the potential carrier and j represent the infected person, and let W be the overall transmission risk between each pair of patients, assuming a self-reported contact relationship exists between them. ij =r1×P×L k .

[0127] Furthermore, in order to construct a reasonable transmission chain, this embodiment adopts an algorithm based on a greedy strategy to gradually determine the most likely source of infection for each patient. That is, based on the target transmission probability, each patient is traversed to determine the first patient with the highest probability of infecting each patient. Based on the first patient, a transmission chain is constructed. Specifically, for each infected person Ij, Ii with the highest second transmission risk Wij is selected as its most likely source of infection, and the transmission relationship is recorded. If there are multiple sources of infection with the same second transmission risk, the patient with the higher second transmission risk Lk is preferentially selected as the source of infection.

[0128] For example, for patient A, the first patient with the highest probability of infecting him is patient D. It can be understood that if patient D has the highest probability of infecting patient A, then patient D is considered to be the most likely source of infection for patient A. Similarly, for patient B, the first patient with the highest probability of infecting him is patient C, and for patient C, the first patient with the highest probability of infecting him is patient A. Based on the first patients, the transmission chain is constructed as patient D - patient A - patient C - patient B.

[0129] To more accurately construct the transmission chain, the specific implementation method for constructing the transmission chain based on the first patient can also be:

[0130] If there are patients who have infected each other among the first patients, then based on the target infection probability, the patient with the highest probability of causing infection among the patients who have infected each other is identified as the infectious person; based on the target infection probability, the second patient with the highest probability of causing infection to the infected person is identified, wherein the infected person is a patient who has infected each other with the infectious person; based on the first patient, the infectious person, and the second patient, a transmission chain is constructed.

[0131] It should be noted that during the construction of the transmission chain, due to the incubation period of the virus, patients diagnosed earlier may have a later infection time, which may lead to mutual infection between patients, i.e., Ii infects Ij, and Ij also infects Ii. To avoid this unreasonable situation, this embodiment modifies the transmission relationship.

[0132] Specifically, if there are patients who have infected each other among the first patients, then based on the target infection probability, the patient with the highest probability of causing infection among the patients who have infected each other is identified as the infected person, and the infection path corresponding to the non-infected person among the patients who have infected each other is removed.

[0133] To ensure the rationality and continuity of the transmission chain, it is necessary to re-analyze the transmission path corresponding to the removed non-infected persons in order to determine the source of infection for the non-infected persons. Specifically, based on the target transmission probability, the second patient with the highest probability of infecting the infected person is identified, wherein the infected person is a patient who has mutually infected the infected person.

[0134] Ultimately, based on the first patient, the infected person, and the second patient, a complete transmission chain can be constructed.

[0135] It is understood that this embodiment quantifies the transmission risk between patients by using information such as the time of diagnosis and the contact relationships reported by individuals in the epidemiological investigation, and uses a greedy algorithm and comprehensive weights to finally determine the most likely transmission route. The above method can identify infection relationships more accurately, thereby establishing a reliable epidemic transmission chain. At the same time, it avoids unreasonable cross-infection and can systematically infer the epidemic transmission chain, providing a scientific basis and decision support for epidemic prevention and control.

[0136] It should be noted that the above examples are only for understanding this application and do not constitute a limitation on the propagation chain construction method of this application. Any simple modifications based on this technical concept are within the protection scope of this application.

[0137] This application also provides a propagation chain construction device, please refer to... Figure 4 The propagation chain construction device includes:

[0138] The judgment module 10 is used to determine whether there is a self-reported contact relationship between the patients based on the self-reported information of multiple patients in the acquired epidemiological investigation information.

[0139] The first calculation module 20 is used to determine the first transmission risk between two patients who have a self-reported contact relationship based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs if a self-reported contact relationship exists.

[0140] The second calculation module 30 is used to determine the second transmission risk between two patients who do not have a self-reported contact relationship based on the historical trajectory information of the multiple patients if no self-reported contact relationship exists.

[0141] The third calculation module 40 is used to determine the comprehensive transmission risk among the patients based on the first transmission risk, the second transmission risk, and the disease course time points of each patient in the epidemiological survey information;

[0142] Module 50 is used to construct a transmission chain based on the comprehensive transmission risk among the patients.

[0143] The propagation chain construction apparatus provided in this application, employing the propagation chain construction method in the above embodiments, can solve the technical problem of low accuracy in propagation chain construction. Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the propagation chain construction apparatus provided in this application are the same as those of the propagation chain construction method provided in the above embodiments, and other technical features in the propagation chain construction apparatus are the same as those disclosed in the methods of the above embodiments, and will not be repeated here.

[0144] This application provides a propagation chain construction device, which includes: at least one processor; and a memory communicatively connected to the at least one processor; wherein the memory stores instructions executable by the at least one processor, and the instructions are executed by the at least one processor to enable the at least one processor to perform the propagation chain construction method in Embodiment 1 above.

[0145] The following is for reference. Figure 5 The diagram illustrates a structural schematic suitable for implementing the propagation chain construction device in the embodiments of this application. The propagation chain construction device in the embodiments of this application may include, but is not limited to, mobile terminals such as mobile phones, tablets, laptops, digital broadcast receivers, PDAs (Personal Digital Assistants), PMPs (Portable Media Players), in-vehicle terminals (e.g., in-vehicle navigation terminals), and fixed terminals such as digital TVs and desktop computers. Figure 5 The propagation chain construction device shown is merely an example and should not impose any limitations on the functionality and scope of use of the embodiments of this application.

[0146] like Figure 5As shown, the propagation chain construction device may include a processing unit 1001 (e.g., a central processing unit, a graphics processing unit, etc.) that can perform various appropriate actions and processes according to a program stored in a read-only memory (ROM) 1002 or a program loaded from a storage device 1003 into a random access memory (RAM) 1004. The RAM 1004 also stores various programs and data required for the operation of the propagation chain construction device. The processing unit 1001, ROM 1002, and RAM 1004 are interconnected via a bus 1005. An input / output (I / O) interface 1006 is also connected to the bus. Typically, the following systems can be connected to the I / O interface 1006: input devices 1007 including, for example, a touchscreen, touchpad, keyboard, mouse, image sensor, microphone, accelerometer, gyroscope, etc.; output devices 1008 including, for example, a liquid crystal display (LCD), speaker, vibrator, etc.; storage devices 1003 including, for example, magnetic tape, hard disk, etc.; and communication devices 1009. The communication device 1009 allows the propagation chain building device to communicate wirelessly or wiredly with other devices to exchange data. While the figure shows propagation chain building devices with various systems, it should be understood that implementation or possession of all the systems shown is not required. More or fewer systems may be implemented alternatively.

[0147] Specifically, according to the embodiments disclosed in this application, the processes described above with reference to the flowcharts can be implemented as computer software programs. For example, embodiments disclosed in this application include a computer program product comprising a computer program carried on a computer-readable medium, the computer program containing program code for performing the methods shown in the flowcharts. In such embodiments, the computer program can be downloaded and installed from a network via a communication device, or installed from storage device 1003, or installed from ROM 1002. When the computer program is executed by processing device 1001, it performs the functions defined in the methods of the embodiments disclosed in this application.

[0148] The propagation chain construction device provided in this application, employing the propagation chain construction method in the above embodiments, can solve the technical problem of low accuracy in propagation chain construction. Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the propagation chain construction device provided in this application are the same as those of the propagation chain construction method provided in the above embodiments, and other technical features in this propagation chain construction device are the same as those disclosed in the method of the previous embodiment, and will not be repeated here.

[0149] It should be understood that the various parts disclosed in this application can be implemented using hardware, software, firmware, or a combination thereof. In the description of the above embodiments, specific features, structures, materials, or characteristics can be combined in any suitable manner in one or more embodiments or examples.

[0150] The above description is merely a specific embodiment of this application, but the scope of protection of this application is not limited thereto. Any variations or substitutions that can be easily conceived by those skilled in the art within the scope of the technology disclosed in this application should be included within the scope of protection of this application. Therefore, the scope of protection of this application should be determined by the scope of the claims.

[0151] This application provides a computer-readable storage medium having computer-readable program instructions (i.e., a computer program) stored thereon, the computer-readable program instructions being used to execute the propagation chain construction method in the above embodiments.

[0152] The computer-readable storage medium provided in this application may be, for example, a USB flash drive, but is not limited to, electrical, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor systems, devices, or any combination thereof. More specific examples of computer-readable storage media may include, but are not limited to: electrical connections having one or more wires, portable computer disks, hard disks, random access memory (RAM), read-only memory (ROM), erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), optical fiber, portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), optical storage devices, magnetic storage devices, or any suitable combination thereof. In this embodiment, the computer-readable storage medium may be any tangible medium containing or storing a program that can be used by or in conjunction with an instruction execution system, system, or device. The program code contained on the computer-readable storage medium may be transmitted using any suitable medium, including but not limited to: wires, optical cables, RF (Radio Frequency), etc., or any suitable combination thereof.

[0153] The aforementioned computer-readable storage medium may be included in the propagation chain construction device; or it may exist independently and not be assembled into the propagation chain construction device.

[0154] The aforementioned computer-readable storage medium carries one or more programs, which, when executed by the propagation chain construction device, cause the propagation chain construction device to perform the aforementioned propagation chain construction method.

[0155] Computer program code for performing the operations of this application can be written in one or more programming languages ​​or a combination thereof, including object-oriented programming languages ​​such as Java, Smalltalk, and C++, and conventional procedural programming languages ​​such as the "C" language or similar programming languages. The program code can be executed entirely on the user's computer, partially on the user's computer, as a standalone software package, partially on the user's computer and partially on a remote computer, or entirely on a remote computer or server. In cases involving remote computers, the remote computer can be connected to the user's computer via any type of network—including a Local Area Network (LAN) or a Wide Area Network (WAN)—or can be connected to an external computer (e.g., via the Internet using an Internet service provider).

[0156] The flowcharts and block diagrams in the accompanying drawings illustrate the architecture, functionality, and operation of possible implementations of systems, methods, and computer program products according to various embodiments of this application. In this regard, each block in a flowchart or block diagram may represent a module, segment, or portion of code containing one or more executable instructions for implementing a specified logical function. It should also be noted that in some alternative implementations, the functions indicated in the blocks may occur in a different order than those indicated in the drawings. For example, two consecutively indicated blocks may actually be executed substantially in parallel, and they may sometimes be executed in reverse order, depending on the functions involved. It should also be noted that each block in the block diagrams and / or flowcharts, and combinations of blocks in the block diagrams and / or flowcharts, can be implemented using a dedicated hardware-based system that performs the specified function or operation, or using a combination of dedicated hardware and computer instructions.

[0157] The modules described in the embodiments of this application can be implemented in software or hardware. The names of the modules do not necessarily limit the functionality of the unit itself.

[0158] The readable storage medium provided in this application is a computer-readable storage medium that stores computer-readable program instructions (i.e., a computer program) for executing the above-described propagation chain construction method, thereby solving the technical problem of low accuracy in propagation chain construction. Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the computer-readable storage medium provided in this application are the same as those of the propagation chain construction method provided in the above embodiments, and will not be repeated here.

[0159] This application also provides a computer program product, including a computer program that, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the propagation chain construction method described above.

[0160] The computer program product provided in this application can solve the technical problem of low accuracy in propagation chain construction. Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the computer program product provided in this application are the same as those of the propagation chain construction method provided in the above embodiments, and will not be repeated here.

[0161] The above description is only a part of the embodiments of this application and does not limit the patent scope of this application. All equivalent structural transformations made under the technical concept of this application and using the contents of the specification and drawings of this application, or direct / indirect applications in other related technical fields, are included in the patent protection scope of this application.

Claims

1. A method for constructing a propagation chain, characterized in that, The method includes: Based on the self-reported information of multiple patients in the obtained epidemiological investigation information, it is determined whether there is a self-reported contact relationship between each pair of patients; If a self-reported contact relationship exists, a fourth influence weight of the contact relationship on the first transmission risk is determined based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs. Based on the fourth influence weight and a preset weight parameter, the first transmission risk between each patient is determined, wherein the preset weight parameter is used to characterize the importance of the contact relationship relative to the first transmission risk. If no self-reported contact relationship exists, then based on the location type of each patient's activity location, a first influence weight of location on the second transmission risk is determined; based on the activity location and the activity time of each patient, a second influence weight of distance on the second transmission risk is determined; and a third influence weight of continuous contact time on the second transmission risk is determined; and based on the first influence weight, the second influence weight, and the third influence weight, the second transmission risk between each patient is determined. Based on the diagnosis time of each patient, the fifth influence weight of time on the transmission risk was determined by using a pre-set intergenerational interval model; Based on the first transmission risk, the second transmission risk, and the fifth influence weight, the comprehensive transmission risk among the patients is determined; Based on the comprehensive transmission risk among the patients, a transmission chain is constructed.

2. The method as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The step of determining the second influence weight of distance on the second transmission risk and the third influence weight of continuous contact time on the second transmission risk based on the activity location and activity time includes: Based on the activity location and time, determine the relative distance between each patient at the same time. If the relative distance is less than the preset maximum contact distance, then the second influence weight of distance on the second propagation risk is determined by the preset distance decay function, wherein the preset distance decay function is used to characterize the correlation between distance and contact probability; If the relative distance is less than the preset maximum contact distance, then based on the activity time, the continuous contact time between each patient is determined, and a third influence weight of the continuous contact time on the second transmission risk is determined by a preset calculation formula, wherein the preset calculation formula is used to characterize the correlation between the continuous contact time and the second transmission risk.

3. The method as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The comprehensive transmission risk is used to characterize the target infection probability between patients. The step of constructing a transmission chain based on the comprehensive transmission risk between the patients includes: Based on the target infection probability, each of the patients is traversed to determine the first patient with the highest probability of infecting each of the patients. Based on the first patient, a transmission chain was constructed.

4. The method as described in claim 3, characterized in that, The step of constructing a transmission chain based on the first patient includes: If there are patients who have infected each other among the first patients, then based on the target transmission probability, the patient with the highest probability of causing the infection among the patients who have infected each other is determined to be the infected person. Based on the target infection probability, a second patient with the highest probability of infecting the infected person is identified, wherein the infected person is a patient who has a mutual infection relationship with the infected person; A transmission chain was constructed based on the first patient, the infected person, and the second patient.

5. A propagation chain construction device, characterized in that, The device includes: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, the computer program being configured to implement the steps of the propagation chain construction method as described in any one of claims 1 to 4.

6. A storage medium, characterized in that, The storage medium is a computer-readable storage medium, and a computer program is stored on the storage medium. When the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the steps of the propagation chain construction method as described in any one of claims 1 to 4.

7. A computer program product, characterized in that, The computer program product includes a computer program that, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the propagation chain construction method as described in any one of claims 1 to 4.

Images