Flood area composition calculation method and system based on MCMC

Through the calculation method of flood area composition based on MCMC, the problem of accidental analysis results when the existing technology is difficult to adapt in a changing environment and insufficient data is solved, and the probability distribution and uncertainty analysis of flood area composition is realized to assist flood control calculation.

CN119691348APending Publication Date: 2025-03-25CHINA THREE GORGES CORPORATION +1
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Patent Information

Application Number
CN202411764638.2
Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Filing Date
2024-12-04
Publication Date
2025-03-25

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

The existing flood area composition calculation method is difficult to adapt to the new requirements of water conservancy and hydropower engineering planning and design and basin cascade reservoir group operation under changing environments, and the analysis results are very accidental when there is insufficient data, making it difficult to effectively assist flood control calculations.

Method used

The MCMC-based flood area composition calculation method is used to realize multiple iterations of MCMC through a computer system, and the probability distribution of flood area composition under a specific recurrence period in the study area is obtained, and the confidence interval is set to analyze uncertainty.

Benefits of technology

This method is simple to calculate and flexible to use, and can give the probability distribution and confidence intervals composed of flood areas, assist in flood control calculations and their uncertainty analysis, and is suitable for changing environments and complex cascade reservoir groups.

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Abstract

The invention provides an MCMC-based flood area composition calculation method and system, and the method comprises the steps: determining a design section and branch and interval incoming water according to the water system composition of a research drainage basin, and collecting and sorting the flow data of related sites; determining a design flood duration, and determining a flood sample according to the sorted site flow data; performing frequency analysis on the selected flood sample, and determining the designed flood volume according to the recurrence period; mCMC iteration is carried out on flow data of different branch incoming water and interval incoming water, and the composition proportion of each part of flood is calculated; calculating the flood volume of each subarea according to the calculated design flood volume and the calculated area composition proportion; and setting a confidence interval, performing uncertainty calculation on the calculated region composition parameters, and analyzing the uncertainty of the flood region composition.
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