55 results about "Design flood" patented technology

The invention discloses an SSP scene reservoir group flood control scheduling method considering hydrological forecast uncertainty, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining SSP climate scene meteorological data to drive an SWAT model to generate daily runoff, and deducing and designing a flood hydrograph; a flow error sequence is calculated based on historical simulation and measured data, optimal distribution is optimized through fitting of a multi-probability distribution model, and a 95% confidence interval is generated through Monte Carlo simulation to correct design flood; and constructing an optimization model with the goal of minimizing the highest water level of flood regulation, bringing in various constraints, solving an optimal scheduling process by adopting a discrete differential dynamic programming algorithm, and finally refining an adaptive scheduling rule. The method solves the problems that prediction uncertainty is not considered and solving efficiency is low in the prior art, flood control safety and dispatching adaptability of the reservoir group are improved, and the method is suitable for flood control dispatching of the reservoir group under climate change.

The invention discloses a staged design flood estimation method under the influence of climate change and reservoir regulation and storage. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring meteorological and hydrological data, human water consumption data and global climate mode output data of a reservoir; a reduced natural reservoir runoff series is obtained based on a water balance method, a GR4J-9 hydrological model is calibrated to achieve natural reservoir runoff simulation, and a long-short-term memory model is constructed to simulate the influence of human activities such as reservoir regulation and storage on runoff; based on a global climate mode set and a quantile deviation correction method, driving a GR4J-9 hydrological model and a long-short term memory model to obtain a reservoir runoff series under climate change and performing flood season staging; establishing a staging design flood calculation model of a future scene based on a Copula function, and deducing the most probable staging design flood; and constructing an emergence constraint model based on the dew point temperature so as to obtain a corrected stage design flood result. According to the method, the comprehensive influence of climate change and reservoir regulation and storage is considered, and a reference basis is provided for deducing stage design flood.

The invention relates to the technical field of flood control planning of water conservancy projects, and discloses a method for determining the designed flood level of a Dongting lake district, which comprises the following steps of: a) constructing a flood peak quantity joint distribution model: acquiring historical flood peak flow of a research area and flood quantity data in corresponding time periods, edge distribution fitting is carried out on the flood peak flow data and the time period flood volume data, and a Copula function is adopted to construct a joint distribution model of the flood peak flow data and the time period flood volume data; b) determining a combined recurrence period and a reasonable peak quantity combination boundary: defining and calculating the combined recurrence period of a design event based on the combined distribution model constructed in the step a), and determining a reasonable region boundary of the combination of the flood peak flow and the time period flood quantity in the combined recurrence period in combination with a preset confidence level; and c) deducing the designed flood level: selecting at least one design peak quantity combination in the reasonable area determined in the step b), obtaining the corresponding flood level through flood regulation calculation, and determining the final designed flood level in combination with the flood control guarantee rate. According to the method, by constructing the flood peak quantity joint distribution model and introducing confidence level screening reasonable combination, the scientificity and reliability of determining the design flood level of the Dongting lake area are remarkably improved.

The invention provides a three gorges reservoir operation period staging design flood and staging storage level determination method, which is characterized in that a flood season is divided into a previous flood season, a main flood season and a later flood season by considering a flood seasonal change rule on the basis of a long-series rainfall flow data series; taking the corrected reservoir coefficient as a covariable to consider the regulation and storage influence of the upstream reservoir group, and adopting a P-III distribution time-varying moment model to deduce stage design flood and flood control water level in the reservoir operation period; a Jinsha river downstream cascade and Three Gorges reservoir combined water storage multi-target scheduling model is constructed, and on the premise of keeping flood control standards unchanged, the three Gorges reservoir staged water storage level is determined through a parameterization-simulation-optimization framework and an intelligent algorithm. The reservoir operation period staging design flood and staging water storage level determination method provided by the invention is reasonable and feasible in technology, and provides an important and operable reference basis for three gorges reservoir operation scheduling management.

The invention relates to a mountain river flood dynamic rehearsal method, device and equipment based on big data fusion and a medium. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring a multi-source fusion data set of a target mountain river; based on the multi-source fusion data set, recognizing the flood type of the target mountain river in combination with a preset threshold rule to obtain the flood type and cause parameters; according to the flood type and the cause parameter, calculating a design flood peak flow value of each node in the target mountain river; according to each design flood peak flow value, performing section-by-section trial calculation through an energy equation to obtain a design flood surface line; and performing dynamic simulation processing on the flood routing process of the target mountain river based on the designed flood water surface line, and generating a flood routing dynamic simulation report of the target mountain river. The method can accurately adapt to the characteristics of diverse causes and complex propagation process of flood in a mountain river, and remarkably improves the refinement degree and reliability of flood rehearsal.

The invention provides a hydrodynamic model-based mountain river flood diversion tunnel line and scale optimization design method, which comprises the following steps of: constructing a one-dimensional hydrodynamic mathematical model of a research area drainage basin by adopting MIKE11 software, and constructing a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the research area drainage basin according to the one-dimensional hydrodynamic mathematical model of the drainage basin, boundary conditions and calibrated comprehensive roughness; and calculating designed flood water surface lines of different frequencies of the urban section. According to the actual situation of a city, aiming at urban flood causes and main problems existing in a current flood control system, engineering measure schemes such as flood control reservoir construction, beach retreating and river returning, river regulation, embankment heightening and flood diversion channel building are proposed, and a flood diversion tunnel route and planning optimization research is developed on the basis of a hydrodynamic model. Numerical simulation of flood disasters is completed by means of the modern information technology, a complete disaster prevention and control system is established for achieving the purposes of scientization, high efficiency and automation of disaster prevention and relief decision, the urban flood prevention capacity can be comprehensively improved, and the life and property safety of the masses is guaranteed.

The invention mainly relates to the technical field of water conservancy and water engineering, and provides an inference formula design flood calculation method for determining runoff production parameters based on soil classification in order to solve the problem that a method for calculating design flood based on an inference formula method is not suitable for regions lack of rainstorm flood observation data. The core idea of the method is as follows: a soil classification database is adopted to classify the soil texture of a corresponding region, software is applied to simulate the soil infiltration process under different rainfall intensities, and the stable infiltration rate after runoff production is obtained as the runoff production parameter of the corresponding region; the confluence parameters and the runoff production parameters of the corresponding soil texture types are substituted into a design flood calculation formula, design flood calculation of different soil texture type areas in corresponding areas is achieved, and the method for calculating the design flood based on the inference formula method can also be suitable for areas lacking rainstorm flood observation data.

The application provides a built hydropower station operation water level lifting method based on staged design flood, comprising: analyzing flood seasonal variation law of a target hydropower station reservoir, carrying out flood staging on the target hydropower station reservoir flood, and proposing design flood and design flood hydrograph of different periods; constructing a hydropower station reservoir area water surface line calculation model, combining the design flood of the target hydropower station reservoir to calculate the reservoir water surface line under each starting push water level of different periods; constructing a hydropower station flood regulation model, combining the design flood hydrograph of the target hydropower station reservoir to calculate the reservoir highest flood regulation water level under each starting regulation water level of different periods; based on the reservoir water surface line and the highest flood regulation water level, combing the water level lifting opportunity, the water level lifting scheme is drafted. Through the application, the problem that the existing related technology cannot fully tap the comprehensive benefits of the project is solved.

The invention relates to the crossing field of water conservancy projects and computer simulation technologies, in particular to a river and canal protection engineering failure dynamic judgment and boundary updating method, which comprises the following steps of: marking a protection engineering area and setting the protection engineering area as a non-scour boundary during simulation initialization, and calculating hydrodynamic parameters such as water depth and flow velocity in each time step; comparing with the water depth-flow velocity relationship of a gabion, the design flood control standard of a stilling pool, the bottom elevation of an anti-scour wall and other anti-scour thresholds, if the thresholds are exceeded, judging that the boundary is invalid and dynamically updating the boundary to be a scoured boundary, and continuing simulation by combining dynamic dry and wet grid judgment and GPU parallel calculation; according to the method, water flow-sediment-riverbed-protection engineering collaborative simulation is achieved, the progressive damage process is precisely restored, the erosion and deposition simulation error is lower than 9%, universality is high, and a reliable quantification tool is provided for flood control safety evaluation and optimization design of wading projects such as river and canal crossing engineering.

The invention discloses a calculation method for a design flood process of a small watershed in a hilly region, which comprises the following steps of: a, obtaining known data: obtaining the total design net rain amount of the watershed to be calculated and the net rainfall in each time period, and obtaining the peak flood flow of the design flood in the corresponding return period of the watershed and the confluence time of the watershed; b, carrying out time-phased flow calculation; and c, obtaining a design flood flow process: according to a formula 13 and a formula 15, the known flood peak flow Qm and the basin confluence time tau, firstly calculating the flow in the (m-1) th and (m + 1) th time periods, and then sequentially calculating the flow in each time period before and after the flood peak through a recursion method, so that the design flood flow process can be obtained. According to the method, on the basis of the inference formula, through strict logic derivation, the calculation formula of the flow design process is obtained, the conclusion that the flow ratio of the two adjacent time periods is equal to the net rain ratio in the confluence time before the two adjacent time periods is obtained, and the method is sufficient in theoretical basis, simple in step and high in practicability.

This invention relates to a method for estimating design floods using coupled GAMLSS and BMA models under changing environments, and pertains to the field of hydrological response and its impact assessment technology. The invention first quantitatively identifies changes in meteorological and hydrological elements under future changing environments, and then performs inconsistency frequency analysis based on their distribution characteristics and variation patterns. Then, based on the inconsistency frequency analysis results obtained from different global climate models, it integrates design flood data using the BMA model. This effectively avoids the problem of homogenization in the ensemble simulation results caused by the uncertainty of input data when directly applying the BMA method to runoff sequences, which leads to significant deviations in the design flood analysis results. This invention solves the uncertainty and inconsistency problems faced by current conventional methods.

The invention provides a reservoir spillway flood regulation calculation method and device and electronic equipment, and the method comprises the steps: firstly selecting a reservoir original design flood hydrograph of a frequency corresponding to a target standard, then selecting a gate control working condition of a reservoir spillway, and carrying out the regulation calculation of the flood of the reservoir spillway based on the reservoir original design flood hydrograph and a reservoir original discharge capacity curve; and determining a reservoir design flood hydrograph and a reservoir discharge capacity curve corresponding to the gate control working condition, and then performing flood regulation calculation by adopting a water balance method based on the gate control working condition, the reservoir design flood hydrograph, the reservoir discharge capacity curve, the normal storage level of the reservoir and the water level storage capacity curve of the reservoir to obtain a reservoir flood regulation hydrograph. By adopting the method, the efficiency and the accuracy of reservoir flood regulation calculation can be improved, so that the working efficiency of reservoir project spillway type comparison and selection can be improved.

The invention relates to the field of tailings ponds, and discloses a tailings pond rainfall early warning grade judgment method, device and equipment and a medium. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring early warning indexes of a plurality of early warning levels and a first early warning threshold value issued by a local meteorological department of a region where the tailings pond is located; acquiring a plurality of real-time rainfall monitoring data of the tailings pond, and determining a first early warning level of the tailings pond; calculating the multi-duration rainfall corresponding to the designed flood control standard of the tailings pond; calculating a second early warning threshold value of a plurality of early warning levels of the multi-duration rainfall corresponding to the design flood control standard of the tailings pond; according to each real-time rainfall monitoring data and each second early warning threshold, determining a second early warning level of the tailings pond; and determining a global rainfall early warning level of the tailings pond according to the first early warning level and the second early warning level. According to the application, a more perfect scientific theoretical basis is provided for selection of early warning indexes and setting of an early warning threshold value of the tailing pond rainfall online monitoring system, and safe production operation management of the tailing pond is better guided.

The invention relates to the technical field of regional synthesis, and discloses a multi-landform parameter empirical formula regional synthesis method, system and device and a medium, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining the basic information of hydrological sites of a research region, and constructing a regional result table according to the basic information of the hydrological sites; using a preset empirical formula general equation to construct a general equation set corresponding to the regional result table; generating a target general equation of the research area according to the general equation set; obtaining landform influence parameters of an actual area, and constructing a landform parameter feature combination of the landform influence parameters; and calculating a formula parameter fitting degree of the landform parameter feature combination by using the target general formula, and determining a regional comprehensive empirical formula according to the formula parameter fitting degree. According to the method, quantitative expression of the specific actual region flood peak flow and various landform parameter characteristics can be achieved, and accurate and effective design flood calculation is achieved.

This application discloses a method and device for calculating the flood discharge cross-section of cross-river bridges, belonging to the field of intelligent bridge design technology. It includes: converting bridge data into a processable data structure for standardized bridge data; and ensuring the consistency of mathematical representations of core parameters such as flood level, riverbed, and piers by establishing a unified spatial coordinate benchmark and data structure mapping rules. The method employs a dual-cutting operation on the riverbed line and pier outline using the design flood level line. By introducing a secondary cutting operation on the underwater pier outline using the riverbed line, a dynamic determination mechanism for the flood-resistant pier outline is constructed, fully coupling the spatial interaction between natural riverbed morphology and artificial structures. This ensures that the calculation results simultaneously meet the flood discharge safety standards of the water conservancy industry and the structural design requirements of bridge engineering, providing high-confidence technical support for the planning, design, and flood control assessment of cross-river bridges.

The invention discloses a design flood deduction method and system for a multi-flood-source complex lake region, and relates to the field of hydrology and water conservancy computation.The method comprises the steps that a flood deduction deep learning model is constructed according to a convolutional neural network, a long-short-term memory network and a space-time attention mechanism; acquiring a current flood characteristic variable; based on the current flood characteristic variable, according to the edge distribution function and the Copula function, constructing a joint distribution function; according to the joint distribution function and the similarity index, an important sampling method, a Monte Carlo simulation method and an amplification method are adopted to generate a flood hydrograph; and according to the flood deducing deep learning model and the flood hydrograph, simulating spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of different typical floods in the lake area under different flood source flow proportions, and obtaining the water level hydrograph of different typical floods at each point location of the lake area. According to the method, various typical flood processes under different flood source flow proportions are deduced, and the calculation efficiency and precision are improved.

The invention discloses a reservoir group flood resource utilization chain risk analysis method, which comprises the steps of fitting error probability distribution based on weather rain-free forecast data, and generating a water recession section flow probability forecast scene set; inputting a recession section flow probability forecasting scene set, and determining a reservoir regulation starting water level probability sample by adopting a dynamic allocation method considering flood space distribution and a real-time state; based on historical flood data, a graph neural network is adopted to learn reservoir group topological correlation features to optimize a spectral clustering process, and a neural gas algorithm is utilized to generate a design flood hydrograph scene; a whole-process flood control chained risk decision-making tree is constructed by fusing a scheduling starting water level probability sample and a design flood hygrograph scene, and a double-threshold risk early warning mechanism based on CVaR and VRR is established through full-path scheduling simulation and risk contribution degree backtracking analysis. According to the invention, multi-source uncertain chained coupling is realized, and the accuracy of risk assessment and the reliability of decision making are improved.

The invention provides a drainage basin design flood calculation method based on random rainfall, which comprises the following steps: firstly, collecting long-series rainfall data of a hydrometric station in a research area, and deducing design surface rainstorm of a specific frequency of a drainage basin above a section; performing rain pattern fitting according to the construction condition of the cascade reservoir in the drainage basin and a selected specific rainfall period, and generating a random rain pattern for each sub-partition to obtain a random rain pattern set; counting the sum of the rainfall capacity of each sub-zone in the time period, and assimilating the rainfall process of each sub-zone according to the design surface rainstorm; according to the generated random rainfall hydrograph, carrying out production and confluence simulation considering the regulation and storage influence of the cascade reservoir in the research area; and finally analyzing and calculating the design flood of the research area. According to the method, the multi-session rainfall characteristics of the research area are comprehensively considered, and a new thought is provided for basin design flood calculation under random rainfall.

This invention discloses a method for estimating long-duration design tidal process lines, comprising: preprocessing and frequency analysis of historical tidal data to obtain the design high tide level, design flood tide range, and design ebb tide range; selecting a typical long-duration tidal process containing the highest tide level, and selecting a "one flood, one ebb" process at a later position as the main tidal type according to the principle of "high tide level - long duration - later high tide level", with the rest being secondary tidal types; using the design high tide level, design flood tide range, and design ebb tide range to perform same-frequency combination design on the main tidal type to obtain the design main tidal type process; using the scaling ratio of the corresponding phase points of the design main tidal type and the measured main tidal type as a benchmark, scaling the secondary tidal types accordingly to obtain the design secondary tidal type processes; and splicing the results to obtain the complete long-duration design tidal process. This invention overcomes the limitation of existing methods that can only deduce "one flood, one ebb" processes and is applicable to the calculation of any long-duration design tidal process.

The invention relates to the technical field of watershed hydrological model parameter calibration, in particular to a hydrological model parameter calibration method for a watershed lacking hydrological data, which comprises the following steps: determining a watershed A lacking data and a watershed B controlled by an adjacent hydrological station (reference station) with data, and collecting hydrometeorological and underlying surface feature data of the two watersheds; calculating the design flood of the drainage basin A and the drainage basin B by using a rainstorm runoff survey algorithm; comparing the design flood calculated by the rainstorm runoff of the watershed B close to the data with the design flood calculated by the actually measured flow data, and determining a flood correction coefficient kappa for correcting the design flood calculated by the watershed A lacking the data by using the rainstorm runoff calculation algorithm; inputting the model parameters of the data-lacking watershed A and the design surface rainstorm into a hydrological model; simulating an outlet section flood; and comparing a simulation result with a corrected rainstorm runoff checking result, analyzing parameter sensitivity, and adjusting and optimizing model parameters. The method is suitable for parameter calibration of the data-lacking small-watershed mountain torrent forecasting model, and a new means is provided for flood control and disaster reduction.

The invention relates to the technical field of hydrological data processing, in particular to a small watershed design flood calculation parameter batch extraction method based on GIS and Python. DEM data of a to-be-processed watershed range are collected, and a vector surface map layer of the to-be-processed watershed range is obtained through analysis from the DEM data; calculating the river length and the gradient of the to-be-processed drainage basin range in batches based on the vector surface map layer; multi-time-span rainfall and Cv values of the to-be-processed drainage basin range are calculated in batches, cut and output; and performing batch calculation to obtain partition results of the rainstorm partition, the runoff production partition and the confluence partition of the to-be-processed drainage basin range. According to the method, the preprocessing step of the DEM data can be further optimized, so that the data processing efficiency is improved, the self-adaptive extraction function for different rainfall periods is added, different hydrological conditions are adapted, the parameters needed by small-watershed design flood calculation are extracted in batches, the working efficiency is remarkably improved, and the error rate of manual operation is reduced.

The invention discloses a probability design flood deduction method and system based on parameter and form uncertainty. The method comprises the steps of determining distribution parameter uncertainty of flood frequency analysis and process line form uncertainty of design flood process line dynamic synthesis; constructing a Monte Carlo simulation framework; monte Carlo simulation circulation is carried out based on a Monte Carlo simulation framework, combined sampling is carried out on the distribution parameters and the dynamic weight vector expressing the form uncertainty of the hydrograph in each Monte Carlo simulation circulation, complete calculation from design flood peak flow deduction to design flood hydrograph dynamic synthesis is carried out, and the design flood hydrograph is obtained. Generating a design flood hydrograph; and aggregating all the design flood hydrographs generated by the Monte Carlo simulation cycle to obtain a probabilistic result for flood control design. According to the method, the design flood inference is converted from certainty to probability, the result reliability can be systematically evaluated, and a scientific basis is provided for risk-based flood control decisions.

The application relates to a flood diversion strategy management method and system for joint operation of a flood diversion and storage area, and a medium. The method comprises the following steps: obtaining high spatio-temporal resolution underlying surface data of each flood diversion and storage area, and constructing a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model; simulating and calculating the flood diversion and storage process of the flood diversion and storage area; determining the flood diversion and storage duration according to the design flood storage volume of different flood diversion and storage areas; simulating a flood scene set of each flood diversion and storage area according to different frequency flood conditions; constructing a knowledge graph for the operation of the flood diversion and storage area, and determining multiple flood diversion schemes; and based on a target function and a constraint condition, a target flood diversion scheme is obtained through comparison and selection. The application is started from the perspective of joint operation of flood diversion and storage of multiple flood diversion and storage areas, meets the rapid decision-making demand of key indicators for the operation of the flood diversion and storage area, and reduces the loss caused by flood disasters.

The invention relates to the field of bridge engineering, in particular to a bridge early warning water level calculation method and system based on flow moduli, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining a bridge location section water level and flow relational expression and a flow modulus expression according to river shoal and river channel conditions, and determining the flow modulus at a specific flood frequency; analyzing a flow modulus and water depth relation curve according to the flow modulus expression, and obtaining the flow modulus and water depth relation curve under the current condition by combining the riverbed design information and the relation curve; combining the relation curve to obtain a current situation and design flood flow analysis formula, and calculating a current situation river flow modulus; obtaining a warning flood correlation expression based on the flow modulus expression, and deducing a flow relational expression between the warning flood and the known flood frequency; according to the method, derivation and analysis are conducted based on the data model, various factors and change rules of the river are considered, the accuracy and reliability of early warning are improved, and bridge flood prevention early warning is achieved.

The invention relates to the technical field of river channel flood discharge, and discloses a river channel flood discharge capacity improving method and device for a plain river network district, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining the upstream and downstream water surface ratio drop, the overflowing flow, the water level of regions on both banks and the submerging condition of both banks of a target flood discharge river channel in the plain river network district in a historical flood discharge period; the upstream and downstream water surface gradient, the overflowing flow, the water levels of the areas on the two banks and the submerging conditions of the two banks are analyzed, and the flood discharge level of the target flood discharge river channel is determined; if the flood discharge level of the target flood discharge river channel does not conform to the flood discharge capacity of the flood discharge river channel design, the pump station design flow and the pump station stage number are obtained, and a multi-stage relay water lifting pump station arrangement scheme is determined based on the pump station design flow and the pump station stage number; and the pump stations in the target flood discharge river channel are scheduled and operated by using the multi-stage relay water lifting pump station layout scheme. The flood discharge capacity of the river channel in the plain river network area is improved, and flood disaster loss and influence are reduced.

The invention discloses a non-flood season staged design flood calculation method for a hydrological data shortage area, and relates to the technical field of hydrological calculation and water resource engineering, and the method comprises the following steps: obtaining rainstorm data and reference station length sequence flow data of a design drainage basin; a rainstorm flood response model is established, and flood season design flood is deduced according to flood season rainstorm data; constructing a reference station staged frequency response curved surface, and calculating a high-to-low ratio vector of the flood characteristics of the reference drainage basin in different return periods; introducing hydrology and geography similarity weight, mapping the high-to-low ratio vector of the reference drainage basin to the design drainage basin, and calculating a non-flood season staging design flood initial value; and dynamic correction is performed in combination with the historical flood influence factors, and finally the design basin stage design flood is obtained. According to the method, rainstorm data, historical flood information and reference station flow information are fused, space-time difference and flood cause characteristics are considered, the design flood deduction precision and reliability are improved in a hydrological data shortage area, and the method is suitable for hydraulic engineering design and planning.

The invention discloses an evaluation method for quantifying the influence of land subsidence on dike design standards. According to the method, multi-source data such as hydro meteorology, terrain and land subsidence monitoring are fused, and a hydrological-hydrodynamic coupling model is driven to simulate river channel design flood levels in different design return periods; selecting a typical section, and quantitatively calculating the space cumulative effect of land subsidence and the relative reduction value of the levee crest elevation caused by the space cumulative effect; and a three-dimensional response relation model of design flood level-settling volume-standard adjustment amplitude is constructed, and the reduction degree of the flood control design standard is accurately quantified. According to the method, the simplification limitation of a traditional linear superposition method is broken through, quantitative correlation between the land subsidence and the flood control design standard downshift amplitude is achieved, and an integrated evaluation process of land subsidence, design standard adjustment and engineering coping strategies is established; scientific basis and technical support are provided for embankment design standard review, safety evaluation and flood control and disaster reduction decision making.

This invention provides a method for determining dual control indicators for concrete dam deformation considering flood control risk, comprising the following steps: S1, Determination of deformation monitoring indicators based on the low-probability method: using measured data as a monitoring sequence, establishing a sample of typical effect sizes; assuming and testing the sample distribution to obtain the sample distribution function; using the design flood control risk as the failure probability, and employing the low-probability method to obtain the concrete dam deformation monitoring indicators; S2, Determination of deformation rate monitoring indicators considering flood control risk: determining the design flood control risk and performing flood regulation calculations in conjunction with the design flood standard; establishing a statistical model and performing regression analysis; calculating the rate of change of water pressure components, and taking the maximum value of the rate of change of water pressure components as the deformation rate monitoring indicator under the design flood standard. This method determines the concrete dam deformation monitoring indicators and deformation rate monitoring indicators, enabling timely monitoring of dam deformation when the reservoir water level rises rapidly, and preventing the monitored dam deformation from exceeding the determined deformation monitoring indicators.

The invention relates to a design flood deduction method for coupling a GAMLSS model and a BMA model in a change environment, and relates to the technical field of hydrological response and influence evaluation thereof, and the method comprises the steps: firstly, carrying out the quantitative recognition of the change condition of meteorological and hydrological elements in a future change environment, and carrying out the non-consistency frequency analysis according to the distribution characteristics and change rules of the change condition; and then design flood integration is carried out through a BMA model based on non-consistent frequency analysis results obtained by different global climate modes, so that the situation that a BMA method is directly applied to a runoff sequence, and a set simulation result is homogenized due to uncertainty of input data, so that a design flood analysis result has relatively large deviation is effectively avoided; and the problems of uncertainty and inconsistency faced by the current conventional method are solved.

This invention discloses a method for determining the dynamic flood control limit water level of a reservoir. The method first uses cluster analysis to segment the reservoir's flood season. Then, it uses the original design flood control limit water level as the lower limit of dynamic control, the flood control limit water level determined according to the phased design floods as the suggested lower limit of dynamic control, the flood control limit water level determined considering pre-release as the upper limit of dynamic control, and the flood control limit water level determined considering the uncertainties of pre-release and flood forecast as the suggested upper limit of dynamic control. Finally, it determines the dynamic control range of the flood control limit water level. When determining the dynamic flood control limit water level and pre-release value, an integer variable is introduced to express the existing flood control scheduling rules of the reservoir as constraints to establish a pre-release optimization model. The method for determining the dynamic flood control limit water level of a reservoir provided by this invention improves the scientificity and operability of dynamic water level control during the flood season, and can be applied to the refined management of reservoir flood control, improving the power generation and comprehensive utilization benefits of the reservoir.