Staging design flood derivation method in integrated climate mode

Abstract

The invention discloses a staging design flood derivation method in an integrated climate mode. The staging design flood derivation method comprises the steps: establishing a coupling model of a GCM and a VIC so as to predict the reservoir runoff process under the future climate change scene; through an arithmetic average method, obtaining an average state runoff process under a climate change scene; analyzing the runoff process by adopting a probability variable point method to divide a main flood period and a non-main flood period; constructing a reservoir design flood peak quantity most possible combination method calculation model through a Copula function; and taking reservoir prediction runoff data under a future climate change scene as input of a designed flood peak quantity combination method calculation model, and meanwhile, calculating the united design values of the reservoir under different recurrence period levels by considering multivariate same-frequency combination and most possible combination. The staging design flood derivation method has a strong statistical basis, and provides a new way for staged design flood calculation under a climate change scene.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of reservoir flood control safety design, and in particular relates to a staged design flood calculation method under an integrated climate model. Background technique [0002] The phased design flood is an important basis for determining the limited water level of the flood season. Optimizing the phased design flood to reflect the flood evolution law in the flood season is of great significance for accurately describing the flood control risks faced by the reservoir and improving the benefits. The staged design flood should not only conform to the flood control standard, but also reflect the seasonal law of the flood. The current staged design flood method in my country assumes that the staged design flood frequency is equal to the reciprocal of the flood control standard, which cannot meet the flood control standard. In order to solve this problem, domestic and foreign scholars mainly put forward two types...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] However, the above literatures based on the Copula function to calculate the staged design flood all obtained the return period contour line. There are countless flood combinations on the contour line that meet the flood control standards. In order to obtain the staged design flood value that meets the actual requirements, scholars still use Using the same frequency assumption to deduce the staged design flood does not conform to the inherent law of the staged flood

At the same time, due to the dual influence of human activities and climate change, the following conditions have changed dynamically, which has changed the law of reservoir runoff. Existing methods only consider the current runoff, and there is no literature on the staged design under future climate change scenarios. flood research

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