The invention discloses a regional extreme drought and flood event
prediction system based on a
climate model, and relates to the technical field of
climate model prediction and disaster early warning, and the
system comprises a
data input module which is used for receiving regional multivariable prediction data processed by
downscaling of the
climate model, and the multivariable prediction data comprises rainfall,
soil humidity and
evapotranspiration. According to the regional extreme drought and flood event
prediction system based on the climate model, equation strong constraint and variational optimization are carried out on key variables such as rainfall,
soil humidity and
evapotranspiration through the physical constraint dynamic coupler, the
physical law of
water circulation mass conservation and
surface energy balance is forcibly met, the
distortion phenomenon is eliminated, and the prediction accuracy is improved. According to the method, physical correction residual errors are converted into weight factors, Copula function parameters are dynamically adjusted, it is ensured that joint probability distribution of extreme drought and flood events strictly follows a physical mechanism, the path of
misinformation physical impossible events is blocked from the source, and the problem of prediction
distortion caused by multivariate physical inconsistency in
downscaling output of a climate model is solved.