The invention discloses a medium and
long term prediction method and
system for regional
thunder and
lightning climate, and the method enables the interannual change of
thunder and
lightning activity to be objectively predicted in the future 2-12 months through building the quantitative mapping relation between the
thunder and
lightning occurrence frequency distance level and the multi-source climate factor and the large-scale
climate index. Therefore, thunder and lightning approaching early warning which is originally limited to a minute-to-hour level is expanded to seasonal and annual climate scales, and a thunder and lightning-oriented climate service prediction link is formed by uniformly utilizing historical thunder and lightning observation,
air temperature, rainfall, an El Nino index and other data. The large-scale air-sea abnormal signals can be converted into quantitative judgment of too much and too little regional thunder and lightning, and the defect that in the prior art, only empirical
correlation analysis stays is overcome. And meanwhile, by performing standardized grading on the lightning
frequency interval, the grading results of'more, more, normal, less and less' and the like are directly output, so that the prediction product can be directly called and applied by the lightning protection and disaster reduction department, the planning and design department and the like.