The invention relates to the technical field of water conservancy projects and emergency management, and discloses a
cascade reservoir group flood emergency scheduling method and
system fused with dynamic
risk assessment, and the method comprises the steps: a dynamic
risk assessment stage, employing an ensemble forecast product of
numerical weather forecast to drive a hydrological model to generate a flood set, calculating the instantaneous dam overtopping
risk probability of each reservoir, and calculating the flood overtopping
risk probability of each reservoir; a risk
chain type propagation
network model is constructed to evaluate the overall accident probability of the
system; and the
intelligent decision support stage is triggered when the overall
failure probability of the
system exceeds a
risk threshold value, similar historical cases are retrieved by adopting a graph neural network based on the water conservancy field
knowledge graph, and an optimal disposal scheme is generated and recommended through a multi-attribute utility evaluation model. According to the method, dynamic quantification of risks, accurate identification of systematic risks and intelligence of emergency
decision making are achieved, the problems that traditional
risk assessment is static and isolated, and emergency
decision making depends on experience are solved, and the
flood control emergency response capacity of the
cascade reservoir group is improved.