The invention discloses an interval generation and probability
correction method and
system for
new energy power prediction, and belongs to the technical field of power
system operation and control, and the method comprises the steps: generating a multi-dimensional environment
feature code through
numerical weather forecast data, and calling a basic point prediction model to obtain a point prediction result and
basic probability distribution; inputting the multi-dimensional environment
feature code and the point prediction result into a dual-channel dynamic interval generator to form a preliminary
prediction interval, calculating a short-term error sequence based on the actual power of
new energy power generation and historical prediction data, analyzing the trend characteristics of the short-term error sequence, and correcting the
basic probability distribution according to the trend characteristics; and extracting a probability
verification signal from the corrected probability distribution, feeding back the probability
verification signal to an interval generator, carrying out optimization adjustment on the preliminary
prediction interval, and outputting an optimized
prediction interval. According to the technical scheme, the preliminary interval is generated by adopting a dual-channel mechanism, and feedback correction and closed-
loop optimization are performed in combination with the short-term error trend, so that the
adaptive capacity, accuracy and reliability of the prediction interval can be improved.