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Wind electric power prediction method and device thereof

A technology of wind power prediction and power system, applied in the direction of electrical digital data processing, instrumentation, calculation, etc.

Active Publication Date: 2013-01-02
ELECTRIC POWER RES INST OF GUANGXI POWER GRID CO LTD +1
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, due to the volatility and intermittent nature of wind energy, wind farms pose serious challenges to the economic dispatch, security and stability of the power system after they are connected to the grid.

Method used

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  • Wind electric power prediction method and device thereof
  • Wind electric power prediction method and device thereof
  • Wind electric power prediction method and device thereof

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Experimental program
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Embodiment

[0064] First of all, the relevant theoretical basis involved in the present invention is introduced.

[0065] 1. Least square support vector machine regression prediction principle.

[0066] Given a set of training data points (x i ,y i ),i=1,...,l,x i ∈R d is an influencing factor closely related to the predictor, d is the dimension of the selected input variable, and the ith output y i ∈R is the measured value of the pre-measurement, and l is the total number of known data point sets. The goal of the support vector machine model is to construct a regression function in the form of formula (1).

[0067]

[0068] Make the function value y corresponding to the sample input data x can be approximated by f(x), nonlinear mapping Map the input data into a high-dimensional feature space. According to the principle of structure risk minimization (SRM), the optimization objective of the least squares support vector machine can be expressed as:

[0069] min ...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a wind electric power prediction method and a device thereof. The method comprises the following steps of: step one: extracting data from SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) relative to a numerical weather prediciton system or a power system, and carrying out smoothing processing on the extracted data; step two: determining input and output of training samples of a least squares support vector machine according to the processed data; step three: initializing relevant parameters of a smallest squares support vector machine and an improved self-adaptive particle swarm algorithm; step four: optimizing model parameters according to an optimization process; step five: acquiring a model of the smallest squares support vector machine according to the optimized parameters; and step six: carrying out prediction according to the model of the smallest squares support vector machine. According to the wind electric power prediction method disclosed by the invention, a modelling process is simple and practical, wind electric power can be rapidly and effectively predicted, and the wind electric power prediction method has an important significance on safety and stability, and scheduling and running of the electric power system, and therefore, the wind electric power prediction method has wide popularization and application values.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a power forecasting method and its device, in particular to a wind power forecasting method and its device. Background technique [0002] Due to its good economic and social benefits, wind energy has been highly valued by governments all over the world and has become one of the fastest growing renewable energy sources in the world today. Many countries have taken the vigorous development of wind power as one of the important measures to optimize the energy structure and improve the ecological environment. However, due to the volatility and intermittence of wind energy, after the wind farm is connected to the grid, it poses severe challenges to the economic dispatch, security and stability of the power system. If the power of the wind farm can be accurately and effectively predicted, the power dispatching department can adjust the dispatching plan in a timely and reasonable manner in advance according to the change of t...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 张翌晖王凯陈立胡志坚王贺张承学宁文辉周科仉梦林龚晓璐
Owner ELECTRIC POWER RES INST OF GUANGXI POWER GRID CO LTD
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