Power distribution network line fault risk day prediction method and system

A technology of line fault and prediction method, applied in fault location, fault detection according to conductor type, measurement of electricity, etc., can solve the problems of lack of judgment of distribution network and avoid risks, so as to ensure reliability, avoid faults, and ensure reliable power supply sexual effect

Pending Publication Date: 2018-08-07
CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST +2
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The above idea of ​​fault risk assessment is either to analyze the possible further impact on the power grid after a fault occurs in the power grid, or to evaluate the overall construction level of the power grid, o

Method used

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  • Power distribution network line fault risk day prediction method and system
  • Power distribution network line fault risk day prediction method and system
  • Power distribution network line fault risk day prediction method and system

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0044] figure 1 It is a flow chart of a distribution network line failure risk day prediction method of the present invention, such as figure 1 A method for predicting a distribution network line fault risk day provided by the present invention includes:

[0045] Obtain the external environment information of the area where the tested line is located on the forecast day, the load forecast data of the tested line on the forecast day, the operation and maintenance plan of the tested line on the forecast day, and the self-condition information of the tested line on the forecast day;

[0046] Input the external environment information of the area where the line under test is located on the forecast day, the load forecast data of the line under test on the forecast day, the operation and maintenance plan of the line under test on the forecast day, and the self-condition information of the line under test on the forecast day obtained above The pre-built line failure risk day predic...

Embodiment 2

[0068] Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a distribution network line failure risk day prediction system, which may include:

[0069] The acquisition module is used to obtain the external environment forecast information of the area where the line under test is located on the forecast day, the load forecast data of the line under test on the forecast day, the operation and maintenance plan of the line under test on the forecast day, and the self-condition information of the line under test;

[0070] The forecast module is used to collect the external environment forecast information of the area where the line under test is located on the forecast day, the load forecast data of the line under test on the forecast day, the operation and maintenance plan of the line under test on the forecast day, and the The self-condition information is input into the pre-built line failure risk daily prediction model to generate the predicted value of the f...

Embodiment 3

[0092] Aiming at a certain line in the distribution network, the present invention aims at predicting the probability of failure of the line on a certain day in the future.

[0093] First, based on historical information, a machine learning method is used to establish a day-to-day prediction model for the line failure risk.

[0094] (1) Determine the input and output of the model

[0095] Based on the main influencing factors that lead to the line fault, the input and output of the model are sorted out.

[0096] The input includes four major factors: the line's own condition, the actual power supply condition, the external environment, and the operation and maintenance condition.

[0097] The output is the probability of failure on the line for that day.

[0098] The status of the line itself includes: the average line loss rate, average capacity-load ratio, overload operation time, and fault frequency of the line within a certain period of time on the day;

[0099] The act...

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Abstract

The invention provides a power distribution network line fault risk day prediction method and system. The method comprises steps that the external environment information of the location area of a tested line on the prediction date, load prediction data of the tested line on the prediction date, an operation plan of the tested line on the prediction date and the self status information of the tested line on the prediction date are acquired; the acquired external environment information of the tested line on the prediction date, the acquired load prediction data of the tested line on the prediction date, the acquired operation plan of the tested line on the prediction date and the acquired self status information of the tested line on the prediction date are inputted to a pre-constructed line fault risk day prediction model, and a fault generation probability prediction value of the tested line on the prediction date is generated. The method is advantaged in that based on line load prediction, weather prediction, the operation plan, the line operation environment and other situations, line fault risk day prediction is carried out, so relevant fault avoidance measures are adopted, fault generation is avoided, and power supply reliability is guaranteed.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of electric power systems and automation thereof, and in particular relates to a method and system for predicting a distribution network line failure risk day. Background technique [0002] The distribution network is close to the user side, and its safe and reliable operation level will have a direct impact on users. At the same time, because the distribution network has many points and a complex operating environment, it is easily affected by users, and fault conditions are inevitable. Therefore, it is necessary to use various technical means to minimize the probability of failure in the distribution network and ensure the reliability of power supply. The daily prediction of the distribution network line fault risk is the premise and important basis for taking preventive measures against the occurrence of faults. [0003] At present, the main research focuses on the risk assessment of power grid faults. The resear...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G01R31/08
CPCG01R31/086G01R31/088
Inventor 李雅洁盛万兴宋晓辉孟晓丽高菲李建芳张瑜赵珊珊徐冬杰
Owner CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST
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