Power distribution network line fault risk day prediction method and system

Abstract

The invention provides a power distribution network line fault risk day prediction method and system. The method comprises steps that the external environment information of the location area of a tested line on the prediction date, load prediction data of the tested line on the prediction date, an operation plan of the tested line on the prediction date and the self status information of the tested line on the prediction date are acquired; the acquired external environment information of the tested line on the prediction date, the acquired load prediction data of the tested line on the prediction date, the acquired operation plan of the tested line on the prediction date and the acquired self status information of the tested line on the prediction date are inputted to a pre-constructed line fault risk day prediction model, and a fault generation probability prediction value of the tested line on the prediction date is generated. The method is advantaged in that based on line load prediction, weather prediction, the operation plan, the line operation environment and other situations, line fault risk day prediction is carried out, so relevant fault avoidance measures are adopted, fault generation is avoided, and power supply reliability is guaranteed.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of electric power systems and automation thereof, and in particular relates to a method and system for predicting a distribution network line failure risk day. Background technique [0002] The distribution network is close to the user side, and its safe and reliable operation level will have a direct impact on users. At the same time, because the distribution network has many points and a complex operating environment, it is easily affected by users, and fault conditions are inevitable. Therefore, it is necessary to use various technical means to minimize the probability of failure in the distribution network and ensure the reliability of power supply. The daily prediction of the distribution network line fault risk is the premise and important basis for taking preventive measures against the occurrence of faults. [0003] At present, the main research focuses on the risk assessment of power grid faults. The resear...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The above idea of ​​fault risk assessment is either to analyze the possible further impact on the power grid after a fault occurs in the power grid, or to evaluate the overall construction level of the power grid, or to find the weak link of the power grid, without overall consideration of the root cause of the fault. Therefore, there is also a lack of clear guidance on how to judge and avoid risks in the distribution network

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