Ultra-short-term wind power generation power forecasting system

Abstract

The invention provides an ultra-short term wind power station generated power forecasting system, which belongs to the technical field of automatic scheduling of wind power plants. The system comprises a real-time wind measurement data server, a numerical weather prediction server, a wind power station real-time operation server, an ultra-short term forecasting processing server and data acquiring equipment, wherein the numerical weather prediction server is used for acquiring weather prediction data of a near-earth layer at the position of a wind power station; the real-time wind measurementdata server is used for acquiring wind speed data, wind direction data, temperature data, air pressure data and humidity data at the position of a wind measurement tower; the wind power station real-time operation data server is used for acquiring the total generated power data of the wind power station; and the ultra-short term forecasting processing server is used for forecasting the total generated power data of the wind power station at the next moment. The system solves the technical problems that future generated power variation tendency cannot be tracked and multi-step forecasting accuracy is relatively low in the prior art.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of automatic dispatching of wind power plants, in particular to an ultra-short-term wind power generation power forecasting system. Background technique [0002] At present, China's wind power has entered a stage of large-scale and rapid development. However, due to the intermittent and random characteristics of wind power, with a large number of wind power connected to the grid, it will inevitably bring severe challenges to the safe and stable operation of the power system and ensure the quality of power, thus limiting the development scale of wind power. If we can predict the change trend of wind farm output power in advance, adjust the grid dispatching operation plan in time, and solve the impact of wind turbine output randomness on the safe operation of the grid, there will be a technical basis. Wind farm power prediction is one of the effective ways to solve this problem. Realizing ultra-short-term po...

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Problems solved by technology

Judging from the existing research literature, there is no mature ultra-short-term power forecasting system for wind farms in China. The ultra-short-term power forecasting method is generally based on historical power generation time series calculations, which cannot track future power generation trends. The accuracy of step-by-step forecasting is low, which cannot meet the requirements of automatic power generation control of wind farms and real-time dispatching by dispatchers

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