The present invention belongs to the field of
power generation scheduling of power systems. Disclosed is a
cascade pre-flood
energy storage risk analysis and control method for a hydro-wind-solar complementary
system. The method comprises: using pre-flood
energy storage as a constraint to establish a dry-season drawdown model and a flood-season
water storage scheduling rule, so as to determine a
simulation operation criterion; constructing a set of dry-season power shortage, flood-season water abandonment, insufficient year-end
energy storage and wind-
solar power curtailment indexes, so as to quantify multi-stage and multi-source operation risks; and
coupling Monte Carlo and fuzzy membership degrees to characterize multi-dimensional uncertainty scenarios and probabilities thereof, and using
simulation analysis to determine quantitative relationships between pre-flood energy storage and hydro-wind-solar complementary benefits, risk probabilities and risk losses. Results of instance analysis of a hydro-wind-solar complementary
system in a certain extremely-large
drainage basin show that the present invention can comprehensively describe risks in terms of occurrence probabilities and losses, and a
verification result shows that by means of accurate risk description and reasonable energy storage control, the
system power generation is increased by 580 million kWh, and the risk loss is reduced by 42% on average, and therefore the present invention exhibits good practicability.