The present application relates to the technical field of
power control, and particularly relates to a
risk assessment method and device for distributed photovoltaic access to a medium and
low voltage distribution network. The
solar irradiance, residential load and commercial load of the distributed photovoltaic access to the medium and
low voltage distribution network are obtained. The
solar irradiance is input into a self-adaptive partitioned
hybrid estimation model to obtain a
hybrid probability density function value. Based on the
hybrid probability density function value, the residential load and the commercial load, a joint
distribution function is determined. Based on the joint
distribution function, a three-element
Gaussian function is determined. Based on the three-element
Gaussian function and the output correlation
scenario of Monte Carlo, the output data of the
solar irradiance node, the output data of the residential load node and the output data of the commercial load node are determined. Based on the output data of the solar
irradiance node, the output data of the residential load node and the output data of the commercial load node, the
risk index value of the corresponding node is determined. In this way, the present application can accurately assess the risk of the medium and
low voltage distribution network.