The invention relates to a method for ultra-short-term prediction of
solar irradiance in clear and cloudy weather, which is based on an all-
sky imager (TSI-880) ground cloud picture, including cloud retrieval of real-time ground-based cloud images, using the cloud image retrieved from the time-series
cloud cover to predict the cloud image; Then, the multiple
linear regression equation is constructed by using the cloud amount and clear
sky factor data of n time cloud pictures before t time. Finally, the cloud amount data of t +
Delta t time cloud pictures in the future are substituted into theregression model to obtain the forecast clear
sky factor, and then the forecast surface
irradiance of the corresponding future time is calculated. The invention can effectively predict the variation of the ground
solar irradiance caused by the movement and change of the clouds in the clear and cloudy
weather condition in real time, overcomes the shortcomings of the existing solar
radiation prediction method such as randomness, uncertainty, large error and the like in the clear and cloudy
weather condition, and realizes the advantages of good real-time performance and high accuracy.