The invention provides a
solar heat collection system photo-
thermal efficiency prediction method and
system, and relates to the technical field of
solar heat utilization, and the method comprises the steps: firstly collecting historical meteorological data and photo-
thermal efficiency data, constructing a general
data set, and predicting the photo-
thermal efficiency through a multivariate
nonlinear regression model; then marking the
terrain and continuously collecting data, when the
solar heat collection system in the same
terrain in a fixed region reaches a collection day number threshold value and a quantity threshold value, integrating historical meteorological data, the photo-thermal efficiency and the inclination angle parameter to construct a region
data set, and predicting the photo-thermal efficiency by using a
random forest model; and calculating a root-mean-
square error in real time, and when the number of times exceeds a root-mean-
square error threshold value in a
specific time window, switching to the multivariate
nonlinear regression model for prediction until the
random forest model completes new data updating and is re-enabled after a collection day number threshold value is reached, thereby realizing
dynamic prediction of the photo-thermal efficiency under different topographic conditions.