The invention relates to a novel
electric power system power supply capability evaluation and prediction technology, in particular to an improved wind and
light field station level power supply capability evaluation and medium and short term prediction method and device. A novel comprehensive evaluation
index system for the power supply capability of the power generation side of the power
system is constructed from two dimensions of output reliability of
renewable energy sources and adjustable capability of an
energy storage system; in the aspect of power supply capability prediction, an empirical mode
decomposition-
kernel principal component analysis-long short-
term memory neural network prediction
algorithm EMD-KPCA-LSTM improved by a sliding window method is provided. The method can effectively overcome the limitation of a
new energy station power supply capability evaluation method based on a traditional output concept, can more comprehensively reflect the actual power supply capability of the power generation side of a novel power system, can better process nonlinear and non-stationary data, captures the long and short term dependency relationship in
time series data, and improves the power supply capability of the
new energy station. The method has certain advantages in
new energy power supply capability prediction.