The invention discloses a central heating system on-demand precise regulation and control method based on models. The method comprises the following steps that S1, a heating station load predicting model is built according to the historical operation data of a heating station and weather data; S2, the next-day short-term heat load of the heating station is predicted under the given weather condition; S3, needed secondary side heat supply and flow are determined according to the needed heat load; S4, a plate exchange model of a heating station heat exchanger is built; S5, the needed primary side valve opening degree is calculated through the plate exchange model according to the needed heat load and secondary side heat supply temperature, and related control operation is executed accordingly; S6, a data driving model of the relation among the room temperature, return water temperature and weather parameters of all buildings is built; and S7, the set value of the return water temperatureof all building openings is calculated according to the models, so that adjusting valves of the building openings track the value. According to the method, the situation of excessive supply of the heating station can be effectively avoided, heat energy loss can be reduced, and the utilization efficiency of the heating station on energy is improved.