The invention relates to the technical field of
aviation safety, in particular to a short-distance parallel
runway collision risk assessment method based on influence of front and side wind, which comprises
collision risk assessment, Bayesian parameter
estimation,
linear regression analysis, dynamic front and side wind fitting and Monte Carlo analog
simulation. The problem of
small sample parameter
estimation is solved by introducing a Bayesian parameter
estimation method,
crosswind parameters are calculated by combining
linear regression analysis, positive
crosswind data are fitted by applying Weibull distribution, and an influence rule of positive
crosswind and an initial interval on
collision probability is quantified through Monte Carlo
simulation. According to the short-distance parallel
runway collision risk assessment method based on the influence of the positive and crosswind, on the basis of a traditional
collision model, a re-flight condition is incorporated into the model, complex scenes such as crosswind and re-flight are considered, a dynamic interval adjustment model is fused, and a new collision
risk model is established; the crosswind grading minimum interval standard is provided for airline companies and
air traffic control operation management, and the
runway safety and the airport operation capacity are improved.