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Poisson distribution-based power transmission line tripping risk assessment method

A transmission line and Poisson distribution technology, which is applied in the field of transmission line trip risk assessment based on Poisson distribution, can solve the problems that the effectiveness needs to be tested by time and has not been verified by long-term data

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-01-27
ELECTRIC POWER RES INST OF GUANGXI POWER GRID CO LTD
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Problems solved by technology

The disadvantage of this method is that the physical model used has been simplified and has not been verified by long-term data, and its effectiveness needs to be tested by time
However, there are many assumptions and simplifications in the current physical model, and it still needs time to test

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  • Poisson distribution-based power transmission line tripping risk assessment method
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  • Poisson distribution-based power transmission line tripping risk assessment method

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Embodiment Construction

[0062] The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings in the examples of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of them. Based on the embodiments of the invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0063] Attached below figure 1 A method for assessing the tripping risk of transmission lines based on Poisson distribution is further described.

[0064] (1) Regional block and data classification, the weather data that the present invention adopts is the daily value data of the county-level observation station of the Meteorological Department, and is analyzed with the day as the unit. Extract the maximum wind speed VM and rainfall W in the meteorological data f...

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Abstract

The invention belongs to the power transmission line risk early warning assessment technical field and relates to a Poisson distribution-based power transmission line tripping risk assessment method. According to the method, a regional power grid is divided into a plurality of meteorological regions according to historical meteorological data; ledger information, meteorological information, tripping information and the like of a power transmission line are organized according to the regions; a power transmission line fault rate distribution formula is established based on a Poisson distribution equation; meteorological parameters in the meteorological regions are segmented; distribution parameters and meteorological data of meteorological blocks are put into statistics; and a regression analysis method is adopted to establish a power transmission line tripping probability distribution model of wind and rain weather parameters, wherein the power transmission line tripping probability distribution model is used for assessing tripping risks under heavy rain and strong wind environments. According to the Poisson distribution-based power transmission line tripping risk assessment method of the invention, the tripping rate of the power transmission line is analyzed, and with the increase of statistical data, the accuracy of the method is continuously increased; and Poisson distribution is adopted to perform risk prediction, and therefore, the method is more suitable for random event prediction of an approaching time period.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of early warning and evaluation of transmission line risk, in particular to a method for evaluating the risk of transmission line tripping based on Poisson distribution. Background technique [0002] Strong winds and heavy rainfall are common natural phenomena, and they occur more frequently in southern my country. Especially during the landfall of a strong typhoon, the continuous rainfall and windy weather brought great inconvenience to production and life. The transmission line is the main artery of the power system and plays an important role in power transmission. Due to the vast coverage of the transmission line, the complex meteorological environment along the line, and the direct exposure to the atmospheric environment, lack of relevant protection measures, it is extremely vulnerable to strong wind and rain. Strong wind and rain will affect the mechanical and electrical strength of the transmission ...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
Inventor 王乐邓雨荣黄维俸波田树军黄志都蒋圣超
Owner ELECTRIC POWER RES INST OF GUANGXI POWER GRID CO LTD
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