Photovoltaic power station output predicting method based on optimal similar day set

A photovoltaic power station, output forecasting technology, applied in forecasting, system integration technology, instruments, etc., can solve the problem of inaccurate selection of similar days

Active Publication Date: 2015-04-29
HOHAI UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to propose a photovoltaic power plant output prediction method based on the optimal similar day set for the defect that the selection of similar days in the current statistical method is not accurate enough

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  • Photovoltaic power station output predicting method based on optimal similar day set

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[0054]The technical solution of the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. Those skilled in the art can understand that, unless otherwise defined, all terms (including technical terms and scientific terms) used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this invention belongs. It should also be understood that terms such as those defined in commonly used dictionaries should be understood to have a meaning consistent with the meaning in the context of the prior art, and will not be interpreted in an idealized or overly formal sense unless defined as herein Explanation.

[0055] Such as figure 1 As shown, the present invention proposes a photovoltaic power station output prediction method based on the optimal similar daily set, which method includes the following steps:

[0056] Step 1), historical data includes weather type, solar irradiance and output pow...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a photovoltaic power station output predicting method based on the optimal similar day set. The photovoltaic power station output predicting method includes steps of 1) subjecting historical data to exception handling; 2) normalizing weather types and solar irradiance as characteristic vectors of similar output level days and clustering the same for analysis through cluster algorithm and determining the final similar output level day set; 3) selecting photovoltaic generation output power as characteristic vectors of similar curve-shape days, normalizing the photovoltaic generation output power and then clustering the same for analysis through the cluster algorithm so as to obtain classification results of different cluster numbers, and finally determining a final similar curve-shape day set; 4) acquiring the type which predicting days belong to according to the maximum principle of coefficient of association; 5) constituting the optimal similar set; 6) utilizing the optimal similar set as input and establishing an output predicting model to predict photovoltaic power of the predicting days. The photovoltaic power station output predicting method can accurately predict by selecting a history data with the highest correlation with a predicting day and is simple and feasible, and accuracy in prediction of the photovoltaic generation output power is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting the output power of a photovoltaic power station, which belongs to the technical field of photovoltaic power generation. Background technique [0002] The rapid growth of population has brought about the rapid consumption of fossil energy. The energy crisis has become a common challenge faced by all countries. Wide geographical range and other advantages, it has been widely used. Photovoltaic power generation systems are usually installed in open fields and on roofs, and their output power is affected by weather, solar irradiance, temperature of photovoltaic modules and other environmental factors. The system output power is highly random and fluctuates greatly. The performance is particularly prominent. Under such circumstances, after the photovoltaic power generation system is integrated into the large power grid, it will definitely have a series of impacts on the safe and stable operation of the lar...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06Y02E40/70Y04S10/50
Inventor 袁晓玲郭宇杰杨店飞沈桂鹏刘皓明
Owner HOHAI UNIV
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