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Super-short-term power prediction method based on clearance model for photovoltaic power station

A technology of photovoltaic power station and headroom model, which is used in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., and can solve the problems of not considering the theoretical maximum output of photovoltaic power station.

Active Publication Date: 2013-07-17
CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST +2
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Problems solved by technology

The above method can achieve ultra-short-term power prediction of photovoltaic power plants to a certain extent, but does not consider the theoretical maximum output of photovoltaic power plants at specific moments

Method used

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  • Super-short-term power prediction method based on clearance model for photovoltaic power station
  • Super-short-term power prediction method based on clearance model for photovoltaic power station

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Embodiment Construction

[0040] headroom model

[0041] The instantaneous solar radiation intensity of the circumscribed plane of the atmosphere is only related to the solar radiation intensity and direction of the upper boundary of the atmosphere, which can be accurately calculated by relevant astronomical formulas. Assuming a sunny day and no cloud cover, calculate and establish a relational model between the instantaneous solar radiation intensity near the ground and the instantaneous solar radiation intensity of the circumscribed plane of the atmosphere. Based on this model, the near-ground theory at a specific moment can be calculated in real time. The maximum instantaneous solar radiation, the model is the headroom model.

[0042] Headroom Model for Photovoltaic Plants

[0043] Based on the headroom model, using the photoelectric conversion model of the photovoltaic power station, a data fitting method is used to establish a model that can calculate the theoretical maximum active power output b...

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Abstract

The invention provides a super-short-term power prediction method based on a clearance model for a photovoltaic power station. The method comprises the following steps: data preprocessing; model training; and super-short-term power prediction for a photovoltaic power station according to the model. According to the super-short-term power prediction method based on the clearance model, the clearance model of the photovoltaic power station by combination of the clearance model of solar irradiance with output characteristics of the photovoltaic power station, the theoretical maximum output of the photovoltaic power station at specific time can be calculated, and the super-short-term power prediction model is established by employing normalization data and combining with autoregression time sequences on the basis of the theoretical maximum output, accordingly, the prediction accuracy is effectively improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of photovoltaic power generation and distribution, and in particular relates to a super-short-term power prediction method of a photovoltaic power station based on a headroom model. Background technique [0002] Different from conventional power sources, the output power of photovoltaic power plants has the characteristics of fluctuation and intermittent. Predicting the output power of photovoltaic power plants and integrating photovoltaic power generation into the real-time dispatch operation of the grid is one of the important measures to ensure the stable and economic operation of the grid. [0003] Ultra-short-term power forecasting mainly provides the basis for real-time dispatching of the power grid, and dynamically updates the power forecasting results to improve forecasting accuracy. The time parameter requirements for ultra-short-term power forecasting are: (1) rolling forecast of active power outp...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCY04S10/60Y04S10/50
Inventor 刘纯王伟胜车建峰王勃冯双磊卢静张菲王晓蓉王铮
Owner CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST
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