Medium-range forecast system and method for low temperature, rain and snow and freezing weather based on atmospheric variable physical decomposition

Abstract

The invention discloses a medium-range forecast system and method for cold, rainy and snowy weather based on atmospheric variable physical decomposition. By utilizing the atmospheric space three-dimensional multivariable and time continuous grid data outputted in the past observed, the current observed and the medium-range numerical weather prediction modes, and the physical decomposition of the climate and the weather disturbance quantity, a causality between the regional sustained low temperature, rain and snow and freezing extreme weather events and the weather disturbance prior to and during the events is established in the method. According to the invention, a physical decomposition of the climate seasonal variation field and the day-to-day weather disturbance field is carried out according to the data of day-to-day three-dimensional space grid point temperature, altitude and wind and the like of the atmosphere from the troposphere to the stratosphere in the northern hemisphere for nearly 30 years, and a database for the atmospheric climate field and the weather disturbance field can be established; and a historical database of the low temperature, rain and snow and freezing weather in south China is established according to the data of day-to-day temperature and precipitation from the national meteorological station for nearly 50 years. The invention provides not only an inquiring system for historical low temperature, rain and snow and freezing weather events, but also a forecasting system for medium-range low temperature, rain and snow and freezing weather events.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a weather forecasting system for extreme temperatures (high temperature heat wave and low temperature chilling damage) in the mid-term of 5 to 15 days for a meteorological business department, and in particular to a method for separating abnormal signals and a forecasting technology for regional persistent low temperature rain, snow and freezing weather processes. Background technique [0002] Drawing daily conventional weather maps based on global conventional upper-air observation meteorological variable data and medium-term numerical weather prediction model product data to predict the possible occurrence of regional extreme weather events in the next 5 to 10 days is still the main forecasting method of meteorological departments at home and abroad. [0003] There are misunderstandings in the decomposition of multi-dimensional meteorological variables in the existing traditional forecasting methods. The change and interactio...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

In the current operational short-term weather forecasting process at home and abroad, climate change components and instantaneous weather disturbance components are mixed together as signals for future extreme weather event forecasts, which greatly weakens the ability of weather disturbances in the atmosphere to forecast extreme weather events.

[0006] 3. The acquisition of regional and spherical atmospheric fluctuation signals in meteorological scientific research and operational forecasting only satisfies the mathematical decomposition of orthogonal convergence and lacks physical meaning

In nonlinear mathematical models, such as short-term and medium-term and climate forecasting models, fluctuations without physical meaning will inevitably produce new false fluctuations, thereby shortening the time limit for forecasting

Images