Medium-range forecast system and method for low temperature, rain and snow and freezing weather based on atmospheric variable physical decomposition

A technology of numerical weather forecasting and variables, applied in weather forecasting, meteorology, measuring devices, etc., can solve the problems of weakening signal indication ability, shortening predictable timeliness, lack of physical meaning, etc.

CN102221714AInactive Publication Date: 2011-10-19钱维宏
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Current Assignee / Owner
Publication Date
2011-10-19
Estimated Expiration
Not applicable · inactive patent

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Abstract

The invention discloses a medium-range forecast system and method for cold, rainy and snowy weather based on atmospheric variable physical decomposition. By utilizing the atmospheric space three-dimensional multivariable and time continuous grid data outputted in the past observed, the current observed and the medium-range numerical weather prediction modes, and the physical decomposition of the climate and the weather disturbance quantity, a causality between the regional sustained low temperature, rain and snow and freezing extreme weather events and the weather disturbance prior to and during the events is established in the method. According to the invention, a physical decomposition of the climate seasonal variation field and the day-to-day weather disturbance field is carried out according to the data of day-to-day three-dimensional space grid point temperature, altitude and wind and the like of the atmosphere from the troposphere to the stratosphere in the northern hemisphere for nearly 30 years, and a database for the atmospheric climate field and the weather disturbance field can be established; and a historical database of the low temperature, rain and snow and freezing weather in south China is established according to the data of day-to-day temperature and precipitation from the national meteorological station for nearly 50 years. The invention provides not only an inquiring system for historical low temperature, rain and snow and freezing weather events, but also a forecasting system for medium-range low temperature, rain and snow and freezing weather events.
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Description

technical field

[0001] The invention relates to a weather forecasting system for extreme temperatures (high temperature heat wave and low temperature chilling damage) in the mid-term of 5 to 15 days for a meteorological business department, and in particular to a method for separating abnormal signals and a forecasting technology for regional persistent low temperature rain, snow and freezing weather processes. Background technique

[0002] Drawing daily conventional weather maps based on global conventional upper-air observation meteorological variable data and medium-term numerical weather prediction model product data to predict the possible occurrence of regional extreme weather events in the next 5 to 10 days is still the main forecasting method of meteorological departments at home and abroad.

[0003] There are misunderstandings in the decomposition of multi-dimensional meteorological variables in the existing traditional forecasting methods. The change and interactio...

Examples

Embodiment 1

[0136] Implementation 1: The 850hPa Asia-Africa-Europe temperature disturbance field output by the forecast system on January 12, 2008 ( Figure 13 ) shows that the huge negative temperature disturbance area (anomaly lower than -6K) is located from North Africa to the Middle East, and only the weak cold air is located in the eastern part of my country and gradually expands to the southwest of my country (arrow 1), but finally triggers the southern my country The region's first weak rain and snow weather.

Embodiment 2

[0137] Implementation 2: The temperature disturbance field output by the forecast system on January 16, 2008 at 850hPa in the above region ( Figure 14 ) shows that the disturbed cold air whose anomaly is lower than -6K has affected the southern region of my country. The second disturbed cold air reached Mongolia and approached the south of my country, bringing the second rain and snow freezing weather, followed by the Middle East and North Africa. There are also the 3rd and 4th disturbing cold air coming one after another, forming the 3rd and 4th rain, snow and freezing weather in southern my country.

Embodiment 3

[0138] Implementation 3: Figure 15 It is the time-varying process of height disturbance and temperature disturbance to 10hPa over southern my country (100°E-120°E, 20°N-30°N) from January 10 to February 4, 2008. The negative low temperature disturbance has been maintained below 850hPa since the 14th, the negative low temperature disturbance has been maintained near the upper 100hPa since the 12th, and the positive anomalous temperature disturbance has been maintained between 700hPa and 250hPa, and the negative temperature disturbance has appeared below 500hPa since the 17th. high disturbance. The spatial configuration relationship of such disturbance variables is conducive to the continuous appearance of multiple rain, snow and freezing weather.