This invention relates to a method for predicting mudstone expansion and blockage in deep boreholes and optimizing borehole
operation scheduling. The method divides boreholes into sections based on depth and assigns a risk budget item to each section, including at least one of the following: the number of precursor windows, the duration of a phase, and the number of invertible events. Within a
sliding time window, at least two of the following parameters are collected: torque,
pump pressure, returned material parameters, and mechanical drilling rate. These parameters are compared with a baseline to form primary evidence, which is then combined with exclusionary evidence to identify precursor windows. When a precursor window occurs consecutively for a set number of times, the blockage phase is advanced and a predetermined exploratory action is performed. If the
pump pressure or torque does not recover to the baseline's allowable range within a set
time limit, it is determined to be an invertible event. The corresponding budget is deducted based on the number of precursor windows,
phase duration, and number of invertible events. When any budget is exhausted, a borehole operation deadline and urgency level for that section are generated. The borehole operation needs of multiple sections are prioritized by deadline. When the difference in deadlines is not greater than a threshold, a scheduling plan is generated by combining urgency level and scheduling constraints.