A Staged Design Flood Calculation Method under Ensemble Climate Model

Abstract

The invention discloses a staged design flood calculation method under the integrated climate model. By establishing the coupling model of GCM and VIC, the runoff process of the reservoir under the future climate change scenario is predicted, and the average value under the climate change scenario is obtained through the arithmetic mean method. The runoff process is analyzed by the probability change point method, and the main flood season and the non-main flood season are divided into main and non-main flood seasons. The calculation model of the most probable combination method for reservoir design flood peak volume is constructed through the Copula function, and the predicted runoff data of the reservoir under the future climate change scenario is used as Design the input of the flood peak combination method to calculate the model, and consider the combination of multi-variables with the same frequency and the most likely combination at the same time, and calculate the joint design value of the reservoir at different return period levels. The invention has a strong statistical basis and provides a new approach for the staged design flood calculation under the climate change scenario.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of reservoir flood control safety design, and in particular relates to a flood estimation method for staged design under a collective climate mode. Background technique [0002] Stage design flood is an important basis for determining stage flood limit water level. Optimizing stage design flood to reflect the flood evolution law in flood season is of great significance to accurately describe the flood control risk faced by the reservoir and improve the benefit. The stage design flood should not only meet the flood control standards, but also reflect the seasonal law of floods. The current stage design flood method in my country assumes that the stage design flood frequency is equal to the reciprocal of the flood control standard, which cannot meet the requirements of the flood control standard. In order to solve this problem, scholars at home and abroad have mainly proposed two technical solutions, the total...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] However, the above literatures based on the Copula function to calculate the staged design flood all obtained the return period contour line. There are countless flood combinations on the contour line that meet the flood control standards. In order to obtain the staged design flood value that meets the actual requirements, scholars still use Using the same frequency assumption to deduce the staged design flood does not conform to the inherent law of the staged flood

At the same time, due to the dual influence of human activities and climate change, the following conditions have changed dynamically, which has changed the law of reservoir runoff. Existing methods only consider the current runoff, and there is no literature on the staged design under future climate change scenarios. flood research

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