The invention belongs to the technical field of
electric power meteorology, and provides a medium and long term wind and light resource prediction method and
system considering climate remote
correlation factors, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining
global climate index historical data, and carrying out the
standardization processing of the data, and obtaining a standardized
climate index; for the historical resource sequence of the target
station, calculating the
mutual information value of the standardized
climate index, and constructing a forecasting factor set by taking the
lag time corresponding to the maximum value of the
mutual information as the optimal early warning
window period; extracting wind and light resource measured data of the same period in historical years to construct a reference probability density function; and taking the reference probability density function as prior distribution, combining a preset dynamic mode prediction result as a likelihood function, and outputting a prediction result containing a deterministic value and a
confidence interval. By means of the characteristic that ocean signals change slowly, the method breaks through the 15-day prediction limit of an atmospheric mode, effective
trend prediction from the quarterly level to the annual level is successfully achieved, and the requirement for medium and long term resource evaluation is met.