31 results about "Climate change scenario" patented technology

The invention discloses a climatic change scenario revision method capable of reducing uncertainty. The method includes that rainfall and air temperature history observation data in an area are collected, climate scenario data, that is to say rainfall and air temperature under future scenarios, can be simulated, the rainfall and air temperature history observation data are interpolated to a grid which is matched with the climate scenario data by means of a distance inverse ratio interpolation algorithm, revision coefficients of air temperature and rainfall can be proposed and calculated by means of difference value between the rainfall and air temperature history observation data and rainfall and air temperature data obtained by simulation under climate scenarios in the same period, revision can be performed on climate scenario reference periods and future changes by means of the revision coefficients, and a revised climate scenario data set is established. According to the climatic change scenario revision method capable of reducing uncertainty, by combination with a database of history actual measurement hydro meteorology elements in the area, the revision method of climate scenarios is provided for revision, simulation capacity of original climate scenario data output in a climate mode within the area range can be evaluated, a climatic change scenario data set of a study area is established, and scientific reasonable basis can be provided for evaluation of climatic change influence.

The invention discloses a lake water resource quantity assessment and prediction method. The method comprises the following steps: firstly carrying out ground surface-underground water joint simulation to obtain each water balance item of the lake, and then evaluating the water quantity of the lake; and then predicting the lake water quantity in the future scene by combining climate mode output results in different climate change scenes. Compared with a traditional method, the method has the advantages of being low in investment, high in precision and high in physical mechanism.

The invention discloses a water resource planning method based on simulation and considering climate change used for supporting regional water resource management among different water departments under complex and uncertain conditions. According to the method, a plurality of prediction models is coupled to reasonably predict the surface water resource quantity in a research area and the water demand of each large water consumption department in the area, and compared with a single prediction model, the coupled prediction model can improve the prediction precision to a certain extent; and different climate change scenes are constructed to drive the coupling prediction model, so that the limitation of influence of future climate change on water resource allocation is effectively solved. Onthis basis, a double-layer multi-objective planning model considering multiple uncertainty is established, the constructed optimization model is effectively solved through a hybrid algorithm, and finally a reasonable water resource optimal configuration scheme for selection under consideration of climate change and scene analysis is obtained.

The invention discloses a method drawing up a multi-goal reservoir optimization scheduling graph capable of being self-adaptive to climate change. The method for drawing up the multi-goal reservoir optimization scheduling graph comprises the steps of: step 1. establishing a coupling model of a global climate model (GCM) and a variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model so as to forecast a run-off process under a future climate change scene; step two. establishing a multi-goal reservoir optimization scheduling graph model; and step 3. taking the forecast run-off process data under the future climate change scene as the input of the optimization scheduling graph model, and drawing up the multi-goal optimization scheduling graph model by adapting a self-adaptive genetic algorithm. The method for drawing up the multi-goal reservoir optimization scheduling graph has the advantages of balancing the social economy goal and ecological goal of reservoir scheduling, improving the comprehensive benefits of reservoir scheduling to the maximum degree on the condition of ensuring the flood control safety of a reservoir and being capable of being self-adaptive to future climate change and being widely applied to the production practice of multi-goal reservoir optimization scheduling.

The invention discloses an evaluation method for evaluating landslide disaster loss induced by climate change and falling water, and belongs to the technical field of geological disaster prevention and control. This method uses the physical process model, considers the spatial heterogeneity of the surface characteristics of each grid point in the region, and obtains the precipitation threshold corresponding to each spatial grid point in the region with spatial heterogeneity; combined with historical and climate model data, the optimal The climate model was established, and then the landslide-prone area and the possible rush-out and impact area were simulated by the model. The impact range simulated by this method can better match the disaster loss grid data, which solves the problem of climate in landslide disaster assessment. Change scenarios and landslide impacts are difficult to assess.

The invention discloses a staged design flood calculation method under the integrated climate model. By establishing the coupling model of GCM and VIC, the runoff process of the reservoir under the future climate change scenario is predicted, and the average value under the climate change scenario is obtained through the arithmetic mean method. The runoff process is analyzed by the probability change point method, and the main flood season and the non-main flood season are divided into main and non-main flood seasons. The calculation model of the most probable combination method for reservoir design flood peak volume is constructed through the Copula function, and the predicted runoff data of the reservoir under the future climate change scenario is used as Design the input of the flood peak combination method to calculate the model, and consider the combination of multi-variables with the same frequency and the most likely combination at the same time, and calculate the joint design value of the reservoir at different return period levels. The invention has a strong statistical basis and provides a new approach for the staged design flood calculation under the climate change scenario.

The present invention provides a flood frequency calculation method and device under a climate change scenario, the method comprising: acquiring historical flood monitoring data of a target section of a river within a preset historical time period, and acquiring climate change parameters within an estimated period; Determine the non-stationary GEV model based on the historical flood monitoring data; input the climate change parameters into the distributed hydrological model, and calculate the daily runoff of the target section of the river within the forecast period; according to the non-stationary GEV model and the daily runoff , to determine the flood frequency of the target section of the river during the projected period. In the embodiment of the present invention, the accuracy of the flood frequency determined according to the non-stationary GEV model and the daily runoff is relatively high, thereby improving the accuracy of the flood frequency within the simulation prediction period.

The invention discloses a design flood estimation method and system based on equal reliability under climate change scenarios, belonging to the field of reservoir flood control safety design, and obtains future climate change based on a global climate model output and a two-stage deviation correction method considering the correlation of meteorological variables Scenarios, driving the VIC distributed hydrological model to obtain the runoff scenarios under the influence of climate change, using the principal component analysis method to select the extreme rainfall index that affects the flood characteristics as a covariate, and considering the inconsistency of the flood sequence to construct a time-varying hydrological frequency analysis model. Based on the equal reliability method, the combination of flood design values ​​under climate change scenarios was deduced, and the most probable value was used as the final design value, and the 95% confidence interval was selected to estimate its uncertainty. The present invention can fully consider the influence of climate change on flood characteristics, and can provide an important and highly operable reference basis for inferring adaptive design floods under climate change scenarios.

The invention is called future climate change impact on biodiversity and comprehensive risk assessment technology, which belongs to the technical field of ecological environment protection and climate change response. Based on the comprehensive investigation of the characteristics of biodiversity in my country, the climate change scenario prediction technology, Monte Carlo method, computer simulation, GIS and risk assessment technology, as well as theories and practices of climatology, probability theory, etc., are used to establish climate change response. Biodiversity impact and risk assessment indicators and species distribution loss rules, randomized climate scenarios, combination of niche models and climate scenarios, simulation of climate change impacts, and assessment of climate change impacts and risks on biodiversity. In order to establish technical countermeasures for biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change, effective conservation of biodiversity can play important social, economic and environmental benefits. These technologies are highly operable, low in cost, low in maintenance, and widely applicable, especially for assessing the impact and risk of climate change on my country's biodiversity.

The invention discloses a method for predicting the productivity of industrial timber forests based on the coupling of species distribution and productivity. The maximum entropy model is used to simulate the suitability of industrial timber forests, and the coupling relationship between the predicted environmental suitability and the productivity of industrial timber forests is established to obtain the environmental suitability Degree-productivity conversion equation. Then carry out the simulation of the suitable habitat area under a variety of climate change scenarios with different intensities in the future, and use the obtained global environmental suitability layer for further grid calculation through the conversion equation between productivity and environmental suitability. Finally, the suitable habitat area and production potential of industrial timber forests in the world are obtained. The species distribution model of the present invention combines the published ground survey biomass data to predict future forest productivity, not only realizes high-precision simulation on a global scale, but also can simulate future biomass distribution on a large scale in combination with the characteristics of future climate change. It is of great significance to the selection of industrial timber forest afforestation area and the maintenance or improvement of future productivity.

The invention discloses a reservoir multi-variable design flood estimating method for achieving self-adaption to weather changes. A coupled model of a GCM and a VIC is built to predict the reservoir runoff process on the scene of future weather changes. A reservoir design flood peak volume most possible combination method calculation model is built through a Copula function, and reservoir predicted runoff data on the scene of the future weather changes serve as input of the design flood peak volume most possible combination method calculation model, and a combination design value of a reservoir at different recurrence period levels is calculated. The reservoir multi-variable design flood estimating method has a strong statistics basis, the characteristics of an actual measurement sample can be objectively reflected and the internal relatedness of the characteristic quantities is taken into full account. The design flood design value obtained under the condition that the weather changes are considered has higher practicability.

The invention relates to an insect-borne infectious disease transmission risk prediction method and device, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining historical case data of insect-borne infectious diseases throughout the country and local climate environment data matched with the historical case data; taking the historical case data as dependent variables, taking local climate environment data as independent variables, performing modeling analysis based on a generalized additive hybrid model, and verifying model precision under different strategies to obtain an optimal fitting model; obtaining predicted meteorological data of future preset time; and according to the meteorological data of the future preset time and the optimal fitting model, in combination with different climatic change scenes, predicting the spatial and temporal distribution of the insect-borne infectious diseases of the future preset time.