POT drainage basin flood change estimation method and system under SSP-RCPs scene

By using CMIP6 downscale data to drive the watershed distributed model and POT flood sampling combined with GP distribution function, the problem of insufficient flood forecasting accuracy in the existing technology is solved, and more accurate future flood risk assessment is achieved, reducing flood losses.

CN120296933APending Publication Date: 2025-07-11STATE QIHOU CENT
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Patent Information

Application Number
CN202510244225.X
Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Filing Date
2025-03-03
Publication Date
2025-07-11

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

The existing technology lacks comprehensive high-resolution climate-driven, runoff fine process simulation, POT flood sampling, and GP extreme value fitting in future flood forecasts, resulting in insufficient flood analysis accuracy.

Method used

The data-driven watershed distribution model was used to process the data-driven watershed distribution model, combining POT flood sampling and two-parameter GP distribution function, flood samples were constructed and parameters were fitted to analyze future flood frequency changes.

Benefits of technology

It improves the accuracy and reliability of flood forecasts, can more accurately assess future flood risk changes in extreme climates, provide scientific basis for flood control engineering design and management, and reduce direct economic losses from floods.

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Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of flood change estimation, and discloses a POT drainage basin flood change estimation method and system under an SSP-RCPs scene, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining CMIP6 downscaling processing data under a plurality of SSP-RCPs scenes; inputting rainfall and air temperature data, obtained after downscaling processing, of different scenes of the CMIP6 into a drainage basin distributed model, simulating a drainage basin daily runoff process, and obtaining daily runoff sequences of outlets of all sub-drainage basins and outlets of the whole drainage basin; based on the day-by-day runoff sequence of the reference period and the pre-estimation period under the selected climate change scene, constructing a flood sample by applying a POT method; applying the GP distribution function to carry out flood fitting and calculating a parameter value of the GP function; and based on the reference period GP function and the pre-estimated period GP function, comparing the flood recurrence period of the pre-estimated period with the flood recurrence period of the reference period, and analyzing the change of the future frequency of the future flood. According to the method, the CMIP6 downscaling climate data, the watershed hydrological model, the POT flood sampling and the GPD extreme value fitting method are comprehensively applied, and the method is high in universality and reliability.
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