The invention relates to the technical field of prediction of weather states, and especially relates to a modeling evaluation method for urban heavy rain inundation. The method includes the following steps: (1), establishing a to-be-evaluated area into a digital elevation model, and dividing the model into grids; (2), generating a river network, establishing a river network on the digital elevation model, and determining the current direction and speed of a basin; (3) determining inundated areas, the grids the river flows across being river grids and other grids being ground grids, determining initial river grids and inundation conditions, and successively determining, from the initial river grids, whether the ground grids adjacent the river grids meet inundation conditions, wherein the ground grids are inundated grids if the conditions are satisfied, otherwise, the ground grids are not inundated grids; (4) determining the inundation critical rainfall; (5) determining inundation calamity risks; and (6) evaluating inundation risks. Through adoption of the method, the inundation coverage, the inundation depth, the inundation risks and losses or the like can be predicated before heavy rain, early warning is carried out timely, property losses are minimized, and personal safety is guaranteed.