The invention discloses an industrial and commercial park
electrical load power prediction method, and relates to the technical field of
electrical load prediction, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining park
electrical equipment power data, and obtaining a standardized
time sequence power matrix through normalization preprocessing; performing
wavelet denoising and empirical mode
decomposition on the
power matrix, and separating a power trend component from a fluctuation component; constructing a
trend prediction sub-model by using a long-
short term memory network, and constructing a fluctuation prediction sub-model by using a seasonal ARIMA model; carrying out weighted combination on the two sub-models through an integrated learning method, and constructing a comprehensive prediction model; and finally, based on the historical prediction error, setting an adaptive threshold value for constraint
processing, and outputting a final prediction result. According to the method, power data features are adaptively separated through a multi-level
decomposition strategy, a dual-model collaborative prediction mechanism is adopted, environmental factors are introduced to improve prediction precision, a self-adaptive correction mechanism is designed to ensure result reliability, and accuracy and stability of park
power load prediction are remarkably improved.