The invention discloses a
power grid maintenance plan reliability post-evaluation method based on Monte Carlo
simulation and data driving, and belongs to the technical field of power
system operation and reliability analysis. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, collecting multi-
source data such as historical load,
renewable energy output, equipment operation state and maintenance
record of a
power grid, constructing a
time sequence database through cleaning,
time alignment and
feature extraction, and establishing a load and
renewable energy probability model; constructing a
maintenance plan model containing a
state variable, a constraint condition and a peak clipping weight mechanism, and establishing a continuous time
Markov chain state model for the key equipment to generate an availability sequence; generating a large-scale random operation scene set through a Monte Carlo method based on
multiple models, and carrying out supply-demand balance and
power flow analysis on each scene; multi-dimensional indexes of reliability, economy and safety are calculated and subjected to weighted fusion, a comprehensive post-evaluation report is generated after results are counted, and finally the
maintenance plan is optimized according to the report. According to the method, the uncertainty of the power
system can be comprehensively considered, multi-dimensional quantitative evaluation and closed-
loop optimization of the maintenance plan are realized, intelligent support is provided for
power grid maintenance
decision making, and the method is suitable for a
power transmission network, a power distribution network and a micro-grid.