The invention provides a criminal identification and forecast method. The method adopts a data pre-processing method in data mining; aiming at criminal information such as data, street address, criminal police zone, week, criminal type, criminal description and sentence processing, attribute reconstruction, feature extraction and feature selection are performed, the correlation between the criminal information is mined, a characteristic factor with maximum difference is generated, and the correlation between the characteristics factor and a criminal result, namely the criminal type is generated; and then a model integrating Gaussian Naive Bayes, a neural network, Logistic regression, regularized regression, K neighbor, random forest, a support vector machine and an XGBoost learning algorithm is built to obtain an element classifier based on a weighted voting classifier having highlight classification and favorable clustering effect, reconstructed data is analyzed, processed and identified, a criminal condition of a city in future is forecasted, an individual criminal map of the city is drawn, and the effects of promoting and regulating city public security and management are further achieved.