Method for deriving and designing flood process line based on multi-variable most possible condition combination

A technology for designing floods and process lines, applied in calculation, instrumentation, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve problems such as flood peak and flood volume internal correlation without flood, and achieve the effect of strong operability and strong statistical foundation

Active Publication Date: 2015-05-13
WUHAN UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

The current main method of deriving and designing the flood process line does not fully consider the internal correlation be

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  • Method for deriving and designing flood process line based on multi-variable most possible condition combination
  • Method for deriving and designing flood process line based on multi-variable most possible condition combination
  • Method for deriving and designing flood process line based on multi-variable most possible condition combination

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Embodiment Construction

[0043] The present invention constructs the two-dimensional to multi-dimensional joint distribution function of the flood peak and the flood volume in different periods through the Copula function, and derives the calculation expression of the most likely combination of conditions under different dimensions, and uses the maximum conditional probability density function as the principle to solve the flood peak, The estimated value of the most probable combination of flood conditions, the return period of the single variable condition is used as the return period standard of the design flood, so as to deduce the design flood process line under different design frequencies.

[0044] Combine below figure 1 The concrete steps of the present invention are illustrated:

[0045] Step 1, collecting data on the reservoir's flood peak and flood volume in different periods.

[0046] Step 2. Based on the collected data of flood peak and flood volume in different periods, consider the marg...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for deriving and designing a flood process line based on a multi-variable most possible condition combination. According to the method, two-dimensional to multi-dimensional joint distribution functions of a flood peak and flood volumes at different time periods are constructed through a Copula function; a calculating expression formula for the most possible condition combination of under different dimensions is deduced; an estimation value of the most possible condition combination of the flood peak and the flood volumes are solved by taking a maximum condition probability density function as a principle; a single-variable condition recurrence period serves as a designed flood recurrence period standard, so that designed flood process lines at different design frequencies are derived. The method disclosed by the invention is scientific and reasonable, and is closer to real engineering, and can provide an important and high-operability reference basis for deriving and designing the flood process lines of a water reservoir.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for deriving a design flood process line, in particular to a method for deriving a design flood process line based on the most likely combination of multivariate conditions. Background technique [0002] The design of flood process lines is the basic basis for flood control planning. In my country, the same multiple ratio method or the same frequency method is mainly used to amplify typical flood process lines. The multiplier amplification method can only consider one characteristic quantity (flood peak or period flood volume) as a control condition, while a flood event, as a multivariable stochastic hydrological event, requires multiple characteristic quantities to fully describe it. The same-frequency amplification method assumes that the flood peak is completely correlated with the flood volume in different periods. Although the flood peak and the flood volume in different periods are considered at the same time, ea...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 郭生练尹家波刘章君汪芸李立平洪兴骏
Owner WUHAN UNIV
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